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Eric123

Epic Pennant on BTC Chart

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On 12/17/2019 at 10:13 AM, Eric123 said:

Someone just called me and asked if I thought buying 1,000,000 XRP at .16 was a good deal or if he should double it.  I explained the Long/Short battle and I said I'd double it. 

Apparently the guy I mentioned above (if he can be believed) picked and up 3 million XRP in the .17s.

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22 hours ago, Eric123 said:

Apparently the guy I mentioned above (if he can be believed) picked and up 3 million XRP in the .17s.

Of course it could be a great bet, but from a TA standpoint, we have no idea where the bottom is, so it's just like those poor guys who went "Balls Deep" in late July.

Let's look and see how that worked out. It was  a Hail Mary, based on nothing but faith.

Remember those guys? They're currently down about 33% or so and paying the vig on their big loans (if it hasn't wiped them out already)

https://www.ccn.com/ripple-devotees-are-taking-out-balls-deep-loans-to-buy-xrp/

1214701523_ScreenShot2019-12-21at10_36_54AM.thumb.png.957c68292ab635a5077bd2f7295e17dc.png

I have been guilty of this kind of thinking in the past although I know better than to use that kind of leverage.

I entered in the .40 cent range, and I was down just as much as the "balls deep" guys are now much before I adjusted my portfolio. But I didn't sell outright, I spread out the risk to other projects until such time as I get some kind of technical clue that XRP has bottomed.

I read the other day that some new member bought 13 BTC worth of XRP at .22.  Same thing. It's a Hail Mary, and contrary to every rule about risk control I can think of... I don't know where the bottom is, and neither does anybody else, because the charts aren't at all clear. We could be at a bottom, but that's what I thought  when we were in the high forty cent range.

Always average in, if nothing else. This recent plunger at .22 could have done much better if he'd  just averaged in over a few weeks. .17 could be a great bottom call, but if the current support doesn't hold, he''s looking at a disaster. Next support is at 3 sats the way I draw it.

I wish all hodlrs success, but the rules for investing haven't changed just for crypto. The rules are the same.

 

Edited by dr_ed

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BTC is still the driver right now. My alts have licked their wounds and rebounded from the last BTC dump, but they haven't started making higher highs and they look vulnerable to me.

So BTC is especially important, until that changes.

It looks uncertain to me, but I have to accept that we're twisting in the wind, waiting for some bot or some whale to take us somewhere. Higher or lower. 

Long base. Crappy volume, no momentum. It probably won't take long to find out if we head up or down.

593635568_ScreenShot2019-12-21at11_06_42AM.thumb.png.3a1983d0d48d7d8c30c9730233df57a4.png

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I'm no TA expert, and I too have been watching it for months (and successfully trading it). I'm glad we are in agreement on what we are watching, but there's nothing bullish about a drop from 14,000 to 6,500. I'm sure you also realize that to say it keeps going down until it goes up, doesn't require a chart to predict :)

 

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40 minutes ago, jMusic said:

I'm no TA expert, and I too have been watching it for months (and successfully trading it). I'm glad we are in agreement on what we are watching, but there's nothing bullish about a drop from 14,000 to 6,500. I'm sure you also realize that to say it keeps going down until it goes up, doesn't require a chart to predict :)

 

I guess the point I was trying to make was the difference between a channel, which is not necessarily expected to break one way or another, versus a falling wedge, which is expected to break upward.  

To your second point, yes, you could say a drop from 14000 to currently 7000 is bearish.  You could also say that the rise from 3000 to 7000 is bullish.  Or you could say the ongoing rise from $10 to $7000 is very bullish.  The long term trend for BTC is obscenely bullish, the intermediate trend is also bullish, the short term trend is bearish.  All depends on your time frame.

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1 hour ago, Eric123 said:

 

Getting a bit of a move today

Long margin interest continues to grow on Bitfinex 47,283.  I guess this is now irrelevant.

It wouldn't be irrelevant if we broke out on volume. It'd just look like another case of a whale with more info than we have.

He's probably just a punting BTC miner with more money than sense.......Right? Right? I dunno...

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Well it's Christmas Eve so if things go like last year we can expect a dump to occur at around Midnight 1am Eastern Time.  

The Long open margin trade on Bitfinex are still at record highs and continue to grow 47,550.

Short open margin is only 4,010.

During Christmas when everyone is waiting for Santa and volume is low has been a perfect time to manipulate the market.  I would guess we see a flash crash tonight. So you might want to put some low ball buy orders in.

12 24 19.png

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17 minutes ago, Eric123 said:

Well it's Christmas Eve so if things go like last year we can expect a dump to occur at around Midnight 1am Eastern Time.  

The Long open margin trade on Bitfinex are still at record highs and continue to grow 47,550.

Short open margin is only 4,010.

During Christmas when everyone is waiting for Santa and volume is low has been a perfect time to manipulate the market.  I would guess we see a flash crash tonight. So you might want to put some low ball buy orders in.

12 24 19.png

Let’s see what happens!  

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