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Epic Pennant on BTC Chart

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3 hours ago, Molten said:

I actually just opened a small short position on the S&P because it has extended into severely overbought territory.  The vast majority of my portfolio is still allocated in stocks and bonds, so this was just more of a "for fun" move because the technicals seemed pretty obvious.  My horizon is about 15-20 years off, so in the long run I don't really care much what happens right now.

The problem with shorting the S&P is that you run the risk of fighting the Fed and the PPT, who can make that market go anywhere they want, over the very short term.  The bond market has the same issue.

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Hi @baobeiiiii thanks for the insight into China, that was fascinating and informative. Can you please take a look at my post below and tell me if there is any significance to the increasing volume of the Chinese stable coin QC on the ZB exchange? Their percentage of volume used to be an almost non-existent sliver - last night it was 28%, higher than both BTC and Tether.

I apologize to all for the somewhat off-topic post, but this action seems to be flying under the radar. I promise I won't bring it up again...

https://www.cryptocompare.com/coins/xrp/analysis/QC

image.thumb.png.4c0cad4636ebeeb21f770b66c43e6747.png

 

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4 minutes ago, GiddyUp said:

 

I apologize to all for the somewhat off-topic post, but this action seems to be flying under the radar. I promise I won't bring it up again.

 

 

Serious OT questions (and answers) that might interest all of us are not a problem on this thread AFAIK. 

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23 hours ago, baobeiiiii said:

It's funny how everyone, today, considers China to be a gold mine. I was once interviewed/interrogated by Europol police... in '09, them thinking I had a sham relationship with a Chinese woman over a visa (we ended up living in China together for many years after... but it was very uncomfortable and awkward to have to prove to police that your relationship is real.)

Back then everyone had a different opinion about China; "those Chinese are coming to Europe for passports and visas!" That was in Holland. 

Right now smart crypto money says anything to do with China is gold. There's a huge housing bubble in the making over there. In Shanghai, most of the property was bought up by people living in a place called Jiangsu. They literally bought up the entire city.  The price of property for rent or to buy in Shanghai is more than NYC. But no-one sells, and every person takes a loan to buy a second home. It doesn't help that Chinese will not buy second hand (that includes housing). They won't even rent out new homes; they buy them with an expectation that they can sell them down the line. What you end up with is entire towers left empty to decay. Millions of people are taking loans to buy property which often ends up empty. They are government subsidized too. 

Eventually that house of cards will fall, and you won't want to be invested in China when it happens. It is scary how big that bubble is. It has the potential to bring down the world economy. I'm not sure if I want to be invested in a crypto that is part of that.

I'm not slating China; I love the culture, I only speak English and Mandarin. Do some research into the economy over there, housing in particular, and you will need a shot of whisky. 

There are ghost cities over there. Entire cities. I've visited one on the outskirts of Shanghai. It was built to look like a town from Spain. Fake stores (bakery, dental office... just words written over a grey skeleton of dust and concrete), random creepy sculptures, empty. With my brother at my side, in typical British style, we found the only open store in a city built for 50k people... to be a wine shop. We were their first ever customer. The owner had to ride away on a motorbike, to return 30 minutes later with a bottle opener so we could drink it. And on the pi** we explored a megalithic ghost city... we really could have been in spain... and that is but one of hundreds of ghost cities. Most are bigger. They aren't built for human habitation; they are built because the companies that build them get government money to make them. 

The point being, the Chinese economy is a jenga tower. If I was stilling living there, I wouldn't dare have made this post. Because it's illegal and they will knock on your door. The government there is in a pickle because to maintain control they have to let everyone prosper. But it's all fcu*ked. Completely unsustainable. I even made friends with real estate agents (a dime a dozen on the streets) and went karaoke with them. They only sell new places; they actually move further and further out from the city into new developments just to be 'where the action is'.

Biggest bubble in human history.

Adding a personal touch to the rant, my partner's mother was the Minister for Education for all of Shanghai. She, along with a few colleagues, would make the infamous 'black day' exams which decide peoples' future (if you fail this exam, no uni for you). They would shut down entire roads so that students wouldn't hear noise during that exam.

I became part of it, helping to formulate questions for the exam, something which no westerner has ever done... helping with the structure and logic of the questions. I had truly completely assimilated into the culture; they considered me to be not just Chinese, but Shanghai-nese.  I had a crisis of conscience, because I used to be one of the students (but in the UK) who cared about exams. But there in China, that exam is life or death, and many people die/suicide over it. 

I asked her what she thought about the economic situation in China and the socio-economic system, and she was defensive, defending Mao and even asking me to help pick out a new home purchase that me and her daughter could live in once married. At that point, I thought 'I know the exam Q's, it's worth millions'. It was tempting, having been in a culture where money is the only thing that matters, and guanxi, I left shortly afterwards. I wasn't comfortable. These people don't seem to understand how messed up the system is. It's a capitalist economy with a bit of favoritism thrown in. We call it corruption in the West. Over there it is called guanxi, and I started to get 'drunk' on it as I had a powerful mother-in-law.  

Even the smart people over there, are part of the problem. I was forced to pose in-front of a huge statue of Mao at East China Normal University many times. I would speak to the older uni teachers and tell them how f*d up Mao was, and they would begrudgingly agree with me.  That was 2012.

Bubble will break. Pray that it doesn't bring down the entire world economy. Basing your investment success on what is popular in China is a dangerous game. The highest echelons of the government just look out for their family, below that you have ministers, police, all looking out for each other. The housing issue is huge and it has to break, the government can't afford to prop it up forever. I could go on forever, I have a real insight. Police stations protecting 'massage bars', always 100 meters from a police HQ. The fish rots head down. 

Fascinating read, thank you for the insight. China is so massive, they have so many things going on that it's impossible to track all of it.

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13 hours ago, Molten said:

I actually just opened a small short position on the S&P because it has extended into severely overbought territory.  The vast majority of my portfolio is still allocated in stocks and bonds, so this was just more of a "for fun" move because the technicals seemed pretty obvious.  My horizon is about 15-20 years off, so in the long run I don't really care much what happens right now.

I did the same recently and went into profit before reversing and stopping me out (trailing stop preserved some profit thankfully). Before I got stopped out though I opened SPXL (3x S&P long) which made big gains on Friday alone and again my trailing stop is well in profit. POTUS is pumping the crap out of the markets again, so my expectation is for the bubbles to continue to inflate. They will burst eventually, but I believe Trump will extract every last bit of positivity he can - as we approach the Nov 2020 US elections - before this occurs. Just be ready to short when that time comes (SPXU is 3x S&P bear).

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3 minutes ago, jMusic said:

I did the same recently and went into profit before reversing and stopping me out (trailing stop preserved some profit thankfully). Before I got stopped out though I opened SPXL (3x S&P long) which made big gains on Friday alone and again my trailing stop is well in profit. POTUS is pumping the crap out of the markets again, so my expectation is for the bubbles to continue to inflate. They will burst eventually, but I believe Trump will extract every last bit of positivity he can - as we approach the Nov 2020 US elections - before this occurs. Just be ready to short when that time comes (SPXU is 3x S&P bear).

I also use SPXU to short. Agree about trump trying to pump the market but i am also expecting rocky roads with the china deal, which seems to rattle the market. That, combined wth the overwhelmingly overbought technicals, this seemed like a no brainer.  We shall see.

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Low volume weekend sideways action and today is shaping up to be the same.  At least it didn't break down to $6k as some were predicting. Bollinger Bands tightening. Looks like some more tightening before the big move.  I expect most tax selling already happened so at least that is out of the way.

12 6 19.png

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Well the bleed continues  - the bollinger bands are tightening.  Building to a big move.  Will we break out of this downtrend or will the pundits calling for $6k be proven right? - Time will tell.  @WarChest  I don't know what chart the author of the article is looking at.  The Weekly is not making a golden cross on my chart.

12 10 19 daily.png

12 10 19 weekly.png

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8 minutes ago, Milly238 said:

This market is getting sooo boring. I am nowhere close to selling but the forums are dead, seems like no one cares much about crypto. Hopefully this means the market will be turning around soon..... weak hands shaken out?

weak hands shaken out ? been hearing this for 2 years now lol, same as now is best time to buy.

I don't think XRP will go anywhere short term , and yes I'm still buying every month and it may be a mistake but I take the risk .

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