Epic Pennant on BTC Chart

[invest2lose 1,799]

there's always the chance that the $3k to $14k was the halvening bull run. also, we've only had 2 cycles of halvenings. hardly enough to say the 3rd time will follow previous cycles.

[AlejoMoreno 727]

29 minutes ago, invest2lose said:

there's always the chance that the $3k to $14k was the halvening bull run. also, we've only had 2 cycles of halvenings. hardly enough to say the 3rd time will follow previous cycles.

I agree. That's the danger with a lot of these predicition right now. People are saying "Well since this happened at least twice, then it will DEFINITELY happen a third time"

If people are that sure of it then it is likely already priced in.

That $3K to $14K run was so strange. It started out of thin air for what seemed to be no reason at all. (Not that anything in this market ever makes that much sense anyway though.

[Palerider 404]

There is so much that has changed in the crypto galaxy since the last halvening, that I think the markets reaction to it will be unpredictable in price action and in sentiment. Simply just considering the ability to long and short BTC is something that didn’t exist as a tool during the last halvening. We are really in uncharted waters and predictions seem harder then ever at this point. 

[ManBearPig 722]

2 hours ago, AlejoMoreno said:

I agree. That's the danger with a lot of these predicition right now. People are saying "Well since this happened at least twice, then it will DEFINITELY happen a third time"

If people are that sure of it then it is likely already priced in.

That $3K to $14K run was so strange. It started out of thin air for what seemed to be no reason at all. (Not that anything in this market ever makes that much sense anyway though.

It was prematurely coming out of gates too fast.  Every possibility is healthy enough to consider.

[Eric123 5,394]

Bitcoin should have never fell to 3k to begin with, the only reason it did was because of Craig Wright and his Bitcoin Cash SV Fork. 

Faketoshi cause a 7 month crack in the price -  started in November 18 and didn't recover to May 19.  

The main between now and previous halving is that now the BS futures markets are causing daily price manipulation.

Edited November 19, 2019 by Eric123

[Benchmark 20,483]

More forks are to be expected though. It happens naturally with PoW. 

[Quaed 263]

12 hours ago, AlejoMoreno said:

I agree. That's the danger with a lot of these predicition right now. People are saying "Well since this happened at least twice, then it will DEFINITELY happen a third time"

If people are that sure of it then it is likely already priced in.

That $3K to $14K run was so strange. It started out of thin air for what seemed to be no reason at all. (Not that anything in this market ever makes that much sense anyway though.

I agree as well. Due to being in a multi year bear market quite a few people are desperately looking for indicators/reasons for a trend reversal. There could be several reasons why this halvening might result into yet another dissapointing event. Firstly, it could already be priced in. Secondly, as more people start to believe into the halvening being "The Event" which will bring BTC to new heights, it most likely will not. Thirdly, like you said yourself: past performance is no guarantee of future results. 

I am going to sit back and watch the show unfold, but expecting logic to reign in an irrational market like the cryptocurrency market is foolish to say the least in my opinion.

[Chocobo 136]

On 11/8/2019 at 10:28 PM, Chocobo said:

Just some random chart doodling to give my life meaning..

What I expected to happen is happening. I think this drop will test $7800.

[dr_ed 8,190]

Getting back to the daily action, I'd say BTC is oversold and should bounce. Probably not a trend reversal, and maybe not the bottom but I just bought some XRP and I might buy more BTC here too.

[dr_ed 8,190]

Added just a bit of BTC too.

 

[Palerider 404]

13 minutes ago, dr_ed said:

Added just a bit of BTC too.

 

I keep adding too, but every time I buy the price goes down recently...so this is all my fault. Sorry. 

[dr_ed 8,190]

5 minutes ago, Palerider said:

I keep adding too, but every time I buy the price goes down recently...so this is all my fault. Sorry. 

You can't be sure on catching bottoms. I'm just starting to build a position, and I like to add on weakness. If it goes down more, I'll average in some more. 

Lately I've been lucky to have some alts that are keeping me from getting trashed too badly. VET mainly.

[Eric123 5,394]

My theory on Bitcoin's price cycles is that they are designed to create new price perceptions in the public, where prices that were previously considered ridiculously high start to look like a good deal.

I know this has happened with me.  I remember when $400 seemed like a lot of money for a bitcoin, then later  it seemed cheap -

the same switch in perception happened for me at $1,000,  $3,000 and now $8,000.

Bitcoin at $8k is now looking like a good buy to people including myself.

6 hours ago, Benchmark said:

More forks are to be expected though. It happens naturally with PoW. 

It's not the forks that are a problem - there have been so many forks of Bitcoin that I stopped keeping track after Bitcoin Gold.  Since Bitcoin Cash there have been 44 forks, none have affected the price (except for Cash and the later Cash fork with SV) and most have gone completely unnoticed.  It was the fact that a guy claiming to be Satoshi and claiming to hold $6Billion of Bitcoin was threatening to drive the price to $1k to support his fork that caused the problem, that and people believing he could do it.

Forks

https://thenextweb.com/hardfork/2018/05/22/bitcoin-hard-fork-useless/

 

Craig's Threat

https://www.coinspeaker.com/hash-war-is-on-craig-wright-threatens-to-crash-bitcoin-price-down-to-1000/

 

Craig's Excuses 

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/judge-rules-against-craig-wright-criticizes-credibility-in-court-decision

[MQB 371]

If there is more buying creating enough liquidity, there will be more selling. It doesn't matter what the price is.

When there is no buying/liquidity and all hope is lost, the price will go up. Notice big move always comes without notice?

Whales fish for liquidity. Retailer buyers are trapped all the time by greed & fear. Whales can afford to lose retailers can't.

Expect the unexpected, go against the mass sentiment.

[Milly238 461]

26 minutes ago, MQB said:

If there is more buying creating enough liquidity, there will be more selling. It doesn't matter what the price is.

When there is no buying/liquidity and all hope is lost, the price will go up. Notice big move always comes without notice?

Whales fish for liquidity. Retailer buyers are trapped all the time by greed & fear. Whales can afford to lose retailers can't.

Expect the unexpected, go against the mass sentiment.

This is good piece of advice and should be stickied or bolded or whatever. There is a ton of doom and gloom right now and that is exactly what the market needs before a next bull run can start.  It seems like everytime this forum goes super negative and doom from 90% of people things start happening lol. 

 

edit:  the other side to the story is a lot of people are beginning to question if there will be another bull run since everyone is/was expecting another bull run  is it that easy ?

 

 

 

Edited November 19, 2019 by Milly238