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Eric123

Epic Pennant on BTC Chart

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29 minutes ago, invest2lose said:

there's always the chance that the $3k to $14k was the halvening bull run. also, we've only had 2 cycles of halvenings. hardly enough to say the 3rd time will follow previous cycles.

I agree. That's the danger with a lot of these predicition right now. People are saying "Well since this happened at least twice, then it will DEFINITELY happen a third time"

If people are that sure of it then it is likely already priced in.

That $3K to $14K run was so strange. It started out of thin air for what seemed to be no reason at all. (Not that anything in this market ever makes that much sense anyway though.

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There is so much that has changed in the crypto galaxy since the last halvening, that I think the markets reaction to it will be unpredictable in price action and in sentiment. Simply just considering the ability to long and short BTC is something that didn’t exist as a tool during the last halvening. We are really in uncharted waters and predictions seem harder then ever at this point. 

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2 hours ago, AlejoMoreno said:

I agree. That's the danger with a lot of these predicition right now. People are saying "Well since this happened at least twice, then it will DEFINITELY happen a third time"

If people are that sure of it then it is likely already priced in.

That $3K to $14K run was so strange. It started out of thin air for what seemed to be no reason at all. (Not that anything in this market ever makes that much sense anyway though.

It was prematurely coming out of gates too fast.  Every possibility is healthy enough to consider.

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Bitcoin should have never fell to 3k to begin with, the only reason it did was because of Craig Wright and his Bitcoin Cash SV Fork. 

Faketoshi cause a 7 month crack in the price -  started in November 18 and didn't recover to May 19.  

The main between now and previous halving is that now the BS futures markets are causing daily price manipulation.

Edited by Eric123

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12 hours ago, AlejoMoreno said:

I agree. That's the danger with a lot of these predicition right now. People are saying "Well since this happened at least twice, then it will DEFINITELY happen a third time"

If people are that sure of it then it is likely already priced in.

That $3K to $14K run was so strange. It started out of thin air for what seemed to be no reason at all. (Not that anything in this market ever makes that much sense anyway though.

I agree as well. Due to being in a multi year bear market quite a few people are desperately looking for indicators/reasons for a trend reversal. There could be several reasons why this halvening might result into yet another dissapointing event. Firstly, it could already be priced in. Secondly, as more people start to believe into the halvening being "The Event" which will bring BTC to new heights, it most likely will not. Thirdly, like you said yourself: past performance is no guarantee of future results. 

I am going to sit back and watch the show unfold, but expecting logic to reign in an irrational market like the cryptocurrency market is foolish to say the least in my opinion.

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