Epic Pennant on BTC Chart

[Eric123 5,104]

1 hour ago, Dario_o said:

Being BTC reward halving very close (177 days), isn't it priced in already?

I don't think so.

[ManBearPig 611]

2 hours ago, Dario_o said:

Being BTC reward halving very close (177 days), isn't it priced in already?

This chart was done six months ago but has remained relatively accurate and imitates historical trends.  The exponential rises have occurred after the halvings.  It is the doldrums in cryptoland right now, people have tunnel vision on the present moment, but give it later into the 1st quarter and the anticipation should begin to build up.

 

[Eric123 5,104]

Well we broke through the support line but $8k held.  I just picked up some more.

[AlejoMoreno 626]

21 minutes ago, Eric123 said:

Well we broke through the support line but $8k held.  I just picked up some more.

Why not just wait to buy in until after $8k breaks?

[Molten 3,437]

Broke below the bull trend line but the falling wedge pattern remains intact.  Relatively low volume on this spike down.  Oversold on the RSI at all time frames, especially the shorter term charts.

[invest2lose 1,777]

there's always the chance that the $3k to $14k was the halvening bull run. also, we've only had 2 cycles of halvenings. hardly enough to say the 3rd time will follow previous cycles.

[AlejoMoreno 626]

29 minutes ago, invest2lose said:

there's always the chance that the $3k to $14k was the halvening bull run. also, we've only had 2 cycles of halvenings. hardly enough to say the 3rd time will follow previous cycles.

I agree. That's the danger with a lot of these predicition right now. People are saying "Well since this happened at least twice, then it will DEFINITELY happen a third time"

If people are that sure of it then it is likely already priced in.

That $3K to $14K run was so strange. It started out of thin air for what seemed to be no reason at all. (Not that anything in this market ever makes that much sense anyway though.

[Palerider 401]

There is so much that has changed in the crypto galaxy since the last halvening, that I think the markets reaction to it will be unpredictable in price action and in sentiment. Simply just considering the ability to long and short BTC is something that didn’t exist as a tool during the last halvening. We are really in uncharted waters and predictions seem harder then ever at this point. 

[ManBearPig 611]

2 hours ago, AlejoMoreno said:

I agree. That's the danger with a lot of these predicition right now. People are saying "Well since this happened at least twice, then it will DEFINITELY happen a third time"

If people are that sure of it then it is likely already priced in.

That $3K to $14K run was so strange. It started out of thin air for what seemed to be no reason at all. (Not that anything in this market ever makes that much sense anyway though.

It was prematurely coming out of gates too fast.  Every possibility is healthy enough to consider.

[Eric123 5,104]

Bitcoin should have never fell to 3k to begin with, the only reason it did was because of Craig Wright and his Bitcoin Cash SV Fork. 

Faketoshi cause a 7 month crack in the price -  started in November 18 and didn't recover to May 19.  

The main between now and previous halving is that now the BS futures markets are causing daily price manipulation.

Edited November 19 by Eric123

[Benchmark 20,045]

More forks are to be expected though. It happens naturally with PoW. 

[Quaed 256]

12 hours ago, AlejoMoreno said:

I agree. That's the danger with a lot of these predicition right now. People are saying "Well since this happened at least twice, then it will DEFINITELY happen a third time"

If people are that sure of it then it is likely already priced in.

That $3K to $14K run was so strange. It started out of thin air for what seemed to be no reason at all. (Not that anything in this market ever makes that much sense anyway though.

I agree as well. Due to being in a multi year bear market quite a few people are desperately looking for indicators/reasons for a trend reversal. There could be several reasons why this halvening might result into yet another dissapointing event. Firstly, it could already be priced in. Secondly, as more people start to believe into the halvening being "The Event" which will bring BTC to new heights, it most likely will not. Thirdly, like you said yourself: past performance is no guarantee of future results. 

I am going to sit back and watch the show unfold, but expecting logic to reign in an irrational market like the cryptocurrency market is foolish to say the least in my opinion.

[Chocobo 136]

On 11/8/2019 at 10:28 PM, Chocobo said:

Just some random chart doodling to give my life meaning..

What I expected to happen is happening. I think this drop will test $7800.

[dr_ed 7,150]

Getting back to the daily action, I'd say BTC is oversold and should bounce. Probably not a trend reversal, and maybe not the bottom but I just bought some XRP and I might buy more BTC here too.

[dr_ed 7,150]

Added just a bit of BTC too.