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Eric123

Epic Pennant on BTC Chart

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At the moment it is not even possible to estimate a price for the next 24 hours at all.

I agree 589% with botje11:

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Typical low volume movement like we have seen for months in the 6K zone. Which is a complete waste of time for normal TA and also moments where most traders loose money. Unless you are able to do the opposite of what you normally do. Guessing where the next stop hunt will be and getting in there. Instead of getting in when thinking a breakout has happened (on the up or downside). Eventually the sideways show will end, could be 1 day, but could also be 2 weeks. But as long as the volume stays like this, the movement will also be like this, with bearish movement having slightly the upper hand. Because low volume is usually a bearish sign, shows there is low interest at the current price.

 

 

Edited by xSODAx

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18 hours ago, VegitaXRP said:

More lines on a chart. Everyone with access to YouTube, which is basically everyone, is drawing lines on a chart trying to figure out where the price of btc is going. So maybe we go up? Or maybe we continue to $2,400 by late Feb? Then what? Might as well go back to your magic 8 ball. LOL.

Me: Will XRP reach $100 in three years or crash down to $0.10??

Magic 8 Ball: Perhaps.

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Here is a closeup of the chart with the 50 day ema and also a close up of the same chart above from the 2013 price fall to 2015 with the 50 day ema.  I think we may be coming to the close of the bear market as the 50 day ema should be crossing the line of the pennant which for some reason looks to be significant.

pennant zoom in 2015 with 50day ema.png

Pennantcloseup with 50 ema.png

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@VegitaXRP  Yes I have cracked the Bitcoin Bear Market Chart Code or the BBMCC for short.  Much like a ground hog not seeing it's shadow signals an early spring, the 50 ema on the daily chart crossing the pennant line signals the end of the bear market. Based on the chart the bear market in bitcoin ended on January 18, 2019.  This info is more accurate (or at least can't be any worse) than any information you'll received by watching CNBC.

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1 hour ago, Eric123 said:

Pennant after 2013 bull run.  Wishful thinking? Obviously I know a lot of people have been posting similar charts.

pennant 2.png

Notice that BTC price trended sideways for almost a year after bottoming out before climbing back up.  We haven't spent enough time in the gutter yet to call this a bottom IMO. 

I think that we are close (if 3200 fails then we may drop to 2500, but that's close enough), but it'll take a little while longer to know one way or another.  Assuming that BTC doesn't somehow become technically non-viable in the meantime, then yeah it seems reasonable that it would climb out of the hole in a manner similar to its previous climbs.

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@automatic not saying we're really out of the gutter, but more saying this is basically the bottom of the gutter.  In the attached chart 13-17 shows that although we bottomed and began to move up after the 50 day ema broke the trend line on September 3, 2015 we didn't reach the previous high until January 8, 2017, so yeah we still got some time  before we are as rich as we were.

BTC high Nov 29 2013 or there about

643 days later on Sept 3, 2015 50 day ema crosses the trend line

493 days later on January 8, 2017 bitcoin crosses the Nov 29, 2013 high.

 

BTC high December 17, 2017

397 days later on January 18, 2019 50 day ema crosses trend line

304 days later (based on ratio of above dates 76%) we should break the December 17, 2017 high which would be November 18, 2019.

So yeah I calculate based on my, insanity, genius, magic 8ball, wishful thinking, staring at charts for too long and other forms of divination that bitcoin will break $20k again on or about November 18, 2019

But yeah we will basically move up from where we are now.

Of course I also thought Bitcoin would not break $6k to the downside  So yeah. 

 

 

 

Chart BTC 13-17.png

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@Eric123 - we are on mostly on the same page, except that my gut feel for the gutter zone places it at 3300 +/- 800.  We could drop a bit lower, but at this point the downside risk should be limited.  A retest of recent lows along with a firm rejection will be needed to confirm the bottom IMO;  something akin to the following should do:

image.thumb.png.3ab574a4295b5222017b36a79438f5ac.png

On a separate note - there will need to be a trigger that increases BTC's perceived value and starts the next bull run.  Large players entering the space and/or ETF getting approved both seem like they would fit that bill.

In absence of a such trigger, I think that is is plausible - and even likely - that the next bull run will be lead by one of the alts and not BTC.  Gut feeling again, but I get the sense that people these days are much more excited about future potential of XRP or TRX than any of the legacy crypto coins.  While legacy coins could still have another run in them, I think that a grass-roots type of run will be much more likely to start elsewhere (i.e. not in BTC/ETH/BCH/LTC).  Time will tell.

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I'm going to be honest here. I dislike everyone's TA. To grab a better perspective I suggested using a weekly chart with a log scale. I am stealing my comment on a different thread. TA can be great if used properly. Fundamentals ALWAYS beats technicals. If fundamentals don't support this support level, we WILL keep dropping in price. 

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@ObeyTheWafflehouse I agree TA doesn't tell the whole story.  But there have been some reoccurring patterns with this, do they play out again, maybe, maybe not, hopefully.  Certainly fundamentals trump TA but how does one value the fundamentals? There's no cash flow, no balance sheet, there is network growth and adoption, but how exactly does that translate into valuation? I'm basically just messing around here and stating as much, take it for what it's worth (whatever that is) again I thought bitcoin would hold $6k. 

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2 hours ago, Eric123 said:

 but how does one value the fundamentals?

Now we are getting somewhere. "What are the fundamentals of crypto" is the million dollar question. Normally when someone asks about the fundamentals, they are referring to stocks/equities market (as you mentioned cash flow, balance sheet, PE, etc.). However, one fundamental you can measure from a TA perspective is money flow. Is money flowing in or out in that instance of time and can the current fundamentals hold that particular price? How do you measure money flow because money flow is something that you CAN fundamentally measure. I think if you dig around a little more and do some research, you could find the answer to the million dollar question. :D

Edit: Look... I know I am speaking vague, but there are tools out there for you to measure the fundamentals. The great thing about TA is it's all about perspective. How do you view the markets? 

Edited by ObeyTheWafflehouse

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On 1/24/2019 at 10:41 AM, VegitaXRP said:

Or maybe we continue to $2,400 by late Feb? 

I don't pay attention to TA (at least with crypto), but historically BTC's low for the entire year has always been in January for the last 5+ years. 

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