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BluKoo

The Next Bull Run: A Projection

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If you wish to make your own projection, go ahead, but show your logic behind it. Don't just guess or throw up a random number, show me/us why and how you reached that figure.

Whether it's TA/FA or any other method, show me what you think...

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5 minutes ago, Helmsdeep said:

My opinion only and I don't want to rain on your parade But I doubt there will ever be a run like you're dreaming of .

That bought from the top down will be looking to just get there money back which will kill any momentum . 

I doubt there are many people who bought at the top still holding..

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11 minutes ago, invest2lose said:

if they did, then that means they believe in crypto long term. why would they sell just to break even in the next bull run?

Maybe sacrificing the small possibility of profit for the security of having more hair with less grey and having their money back . 

Do you guys wonder what Mr Larson is doing at HSBC ? No mention of xrp but Their own digital asset a big world wide bank like that with its own digital asset should have even the most faithful xrp holders worried .

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I've actually just been watching an interesting video which has maybe made me reconsider.

https://youtu.be/ivWdOztDkv4

I had based the next move on the performance of the previous runs over the last 20 months, however if we continue to follow a similar cycle as demonstrated in the video, the next bull market might be much more of a gradual and steady incline with the parabolic rise over a shorter time frame towards the end of the cycle.

 

Edited by BluKoo

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20 minutes ago, Tinyaccount said:

I seriously doubt that would be a problem.

Two reasons.  First is that many have bailed or DCA’d already.  Second is that if there is a run the volume will dwarf any tail-end exiters because there are so many more ways for new folk to get on now.  Also there has been more prominence to crypto than ever before (good and bad publicity).

Third (I’m cheating...   :) ) is because many of those who are still in and underwater,  have had more time to actually understand the fundamentals and may realise there could be much higher returns by holding.

Also if there is a bulk run associated with real world usage then the volumes might be significantly boosted beyond just speculation.  

It all depends on what the trigger is...   if it has a component of actual heavy usage then it’s unprecendented and could behave differently than any previous speculation- only runs.

The fundamentals are what caught my attention but there are also some serious problems with XRP being used by banks .

The biggest one is Jed pulling out the banks value adding daily , I mean that bank could spend a few million tops to cut him out of the picture along with all of us by hiring the genius to build their own that works on the ledger . 

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2 hours ago, BluKoo said:

If the bull run started tomorrow from a base of $0.32 (combining the projected length of the next bull run & increase in average price per day), I predict it would end ( around 36 days later) near 23th Feb @ $19.80.

If your targets are correct, what do you think the bottom of the correction will be from that? 

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16 minutes ago, Helmsdeep said:

The fundamentals are what caught my attention but there are also some serious problems with XRP being used by banks .

The biggest one is Jed pulling out the banks value adding daily , I mean that bank could spend a few million tops to cut him out of the picture along with all of us by hiring the genius to build their own that works on the ledger . 

No, it isn't. As mentioned several times before, the amount of XRP Jed is allowed to sell has been maximized to a fraction of the daily volume. If real utility kicks in, and I'm not talking just one small bank, or if demand would increase due to some serious retail FOMO, in that case the daily Jed sales will barely have any impact at all.

Edited by Rey

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10 minutes ago, KyleButler said:

If your targets are correct, what do you think the bottom of the correction will be from that? 

That's a tough question. Since XRP is still speculative, it's behaviour might be easier to predict if it continues to follow a market pattern (it could be another -90% from ATH as we are today), but if we see significant xRapid volume and essentially utility taking control of the price then it could remain relatively steady...
Until the next bank holiday of course, then it'll crash back down to 0.30 :wacko3: :spinlol: (i'm kidding, obviously... I think - haha)

Edited by BluKoo

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57 minutes ago, Helmsdeep said:

My opinion only and I don't want to rain on your parade But I doubt there will ever be a run like you're dreaming of .

Those that bought from the top down will be looking to just get there money back which will kill any momentum . 

I think there is a bigger chance of long term hodlers from early 2017 selling chunks of their stash around that point. That's where the resistance will come from if anywhere.
If they missed it first time round I'm sure they won't miss the opportunity to take some serious profit this time.
There will be multiple sales of 5k XRP or 10k XRP and maybe much more as that quantity maybe only cost them $1000 .
The equivalent disruption would have to be from someone who splashed out $30k to get 10k XRP @ $3.

However you can't limit the market like that because there would be no new ATHs ever if that was the case. 

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