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Spekul8

The Real Price of XRP

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The real price of any asset is simply what people are willing to pay for it. Nothing more and nothing less. One can conjure up all the data, analysis, and charts imaginable that show an asset is worth x dollars, but if the market isn't willing to pay that amount you're wrong.

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On 1/17/2019 at 9:53 PM, 2ndtimearound said:

The beartroll mantra: nobody is interested in XRP,  nobody ever was interested in XRP (new development in the narrative!),  XRP is useless and won't be used to any great degree that will matter.  We all made a big mistake investing in XRP.

No. We believe in XRP, but some of us just understand more than others how algorithmic market making was creating artificial prices and fake volumes that caused many to come in and buy at whatever prices. It is amazing to what degree you would defend your ideas just not to admit that the majority of guys who believed in XRP were taken...yourself included.   Again, you are naive if you think this was a "tulip" auction. There, at least real money was exchanged. Here it was a fraud that regulators were too late to create rules around. Here one from Dec 2018 https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2018/12/19/report-top-crypto-exchange-bithumb-faking-up-to-94-of-trading-volume-bithumb-denies-allegations/#45988064645d  

70 cents should have been tops for this market, and I bet only when it would break that, you would see some progress toward a buck. 

 

Edited by Spekul8

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3 hours ago, Spekul8 said:

No. We believe in XRP, but some of us just understand more than others how algorithmic market making was creating artificial prices and fake volumes that caused many to come in and buy at whatever prices. It is amazing to what degree you would defend your ideas just not to admit that the majority of guys who believed in XRP were taken...yourself included.   Again, you are naive if you think this was a "tulip" auction. There, at least real money was exchanged. Here it was a fraud that regulators were too late to create rules around. Here one from Dec 2018 https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2018/12/19/report-top-crypto-exchange-bithumb-faking-up-to-94-of-trading-volume-bithumb-denies-allegations/#45988064645d 

You get some backlash here because you claim to be an authority on what is a very volatile market - you claim your authority through looking back in hindsight at past price action.  I'm guessing there are zero posts from you anywhere online that estimate XRP to top out at 70 cents before the last bull run.  I don't claim to have the authority you do - I speak optimistically about something I've invested in.  It's fairly normal to be optimistic (read: not unrealistic) about something you invest in.  Remember, it was I who sold the entirety of my XRP in late January last year - I'm a realist. 

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Again, you are naive if you think this was a "tulip" auction. There, at least real money was exchanged. Here it was a fraud that regulators were too late to create rules around.

You skip over the very salient points made by quite a few posters in this thread regarding the enormity of retail demand in the last bull run.  It's been said about five or six times in this thread about major exchanges closing down new registrants.  I know reddit's /r/ripple forum was full of posts about "how can I buy XRP?".  Bitcoin was all over the mainstream news. 

What really happened was a low volume market got hit by retail mania, much of it fuelled by South Korean retail trade.  I remember the "South Korea FUD" in January regarding the South Korean government thinking of banning crypto.  Then suddenly many western governments found it necessary to consider what they should do about crypto (which crashed the market further).  South Korean exchanges got raided on behest of the government - it pulled the legs from under the market there, which in turn spooked what was a very very fragile market (99% of the bull run was pure FOMO).  A couple of well-timed BTC dumps from the Mt Gox trustee really got the bear market going - ( https://cointelegraph.com/news/mt-gox-trustee-publishes-final-bitcoin-sell-off-figures-totalling-230-million

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70 cents should have been tops for this market, and I bet only when it would break that, you would see some progress toward a buck. 

If you really believed that XRP isn't/wasn't worth more than 70 cents, why didn't you sell your XRP when it got past 70 cents in the last bull run? You didn't even sell your stack when XRP past $3! You held half your stack through prices that were x4 what you thought they should be....or could it be that only in hindsight you think it should not be above 70 cents? Hindsight won't stop you holding half your stack deep into a 26 cent yearly low.  Even I sold 100% of my XRP in late January because I don't look a gift horse in the eye.  Hindsight isn't much use to be honest.  It's far more valuable if someone can predict the months ahead rather than give their analysis on what's already happened - unless they truly have inside info, opinions aren't worth much.

Also, in September 2018, XRP briefly hit 80 cents before crashing back down way below 70 cents to its current low levels - doesn't look like the 70 cents theory is holding up. 

 

Edited by 2ndtimearound

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18 minutes ago, Kavabata said:

AJ9KwUxhXRP / USD TA 

Here we are looking at a descending triangle pattern on ripple chart. In this case it would be more bullish than bearish . Argument for Bitcoin correlation can be made here, which is where our thirty cent support comes in. As Bitcoin is still expected to produce another downtrend to low $3,000 ranges, thirty cent XRP is well in the picture. With that said we would not recommend to sell it at this time as we have numerous events at which Ripple is participating this and next month which may drive the price up in similar way as it did for Tron earlier this month. 

Should you buy at current levels? 

Personal recommendation is YES, you should have XRP at all times in your portfolios and purpose of these charts on XRP is to provide you with new entry areas for refills before the final push up going into next month. 

How long should I be ready to hold XRP for? 

This is not a short term trade, that's for sure. Don't even enter it if you don't have patience or new to cryptocurrency. This is a LOW RISK hold for those who plan to hold for 4+ weeks and is HIGH RISK for those looking to get into it for few days. 

This chart / description is not meant as a financial advice and is solely our personal view on XRP.

4 weeks? haha waiting for nearly two years now that is patience ;-)

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47 minutes ago, Kavabata said:

AJ9KwUxhXRP / USD TA 

Here we are looking at a descending triangle pattern on ripple chart. In this case it would be more bullish than bearish . Argument for Bitcoin correlation can be made here, which is where our thirty cent support comes in. As Bitcoin is still expected to produce another downtrend to low $3,000 ranges, thirty cent XRP is well in the picture. With that said we would not recommend to sell it at this time as we have numerous events at which Ripple is participating this and next month which may drive the price up in similar way as it did for Tron earlier this month. 

Should you buy at current levels? 

Personal recommendation is YES, you should have XRP at all times in your portfolios and purpose of these charts on XRP is to provide you with new entry areas for refills before the final push up going into next month. 

How long should I be ready to hold XRP for? 

This is not a short term trade, that's for sure. Don't even enter it if you don't have patience or new to cryptocurrency. This is a LOW RISK hold for those who plan to hold for 4+ weeks and is HIGH RISK for those looking to get into it for few days. 

This chart / description is not meant as a financial advice and is solely our personal view on XRP.

Looks like you are not expecting a revisit to the .2s!  If this holds a few weeks I will buy more at this price.

I have noticed one trend this year is that PoW coins are getting a good kicking - the BCS fork and  ETC Hack started it, followed by Galgitrons Take Down and Hodors summary of disadvantages.  I am thinking this year this message will begin to get traction and it will only take one or two whales with big stashes to start a run of transfers out of PoW investments into PoS and XRP.  This transfer is overdue and is being flagged, only fools and idiots will fail to take notice of this advice (I know the crypto market has more than its fair share of idiots).

Edited by Julian_Williams

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10 hours ago, Kavabata said:

How long should I be ready to hold XRP for? 

Don't get me wrong, I like TA, and that's how I trade. However, you cannot ignore the fundamentals of BTC. XRP is still tied to BTC based on a multiple of ~10,000x, and I think BTC is still going to see a price of ~$3,200 to ~$2,500. If we compare the bear market of BTC (lasted ~560days) in 2014, we will not pullout of this current bear market (~400 day) until at least mid summer, and that just the starting point. 

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2 hours ago, ObeyTheWafflehouse said:

If we compare the bear market of BTC (lasted ~560days) in 2014, we will not pullout of this current bear market (~400 day) until at least mid summer, and that just the starting point. 

You're using one single data point in the past to form a "pattern".  IMO, I don't think that just because a bear market lasted 560 days in the past, it must be that long in the future.  Fundamentals like legislation and institutional services (Bakkt, Fidelity) will drive price - even if it meant that for some bizarre reason all of these things were delayed by years, then the next bull run will have to wait years for this kind of news.

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27 minutes ago, 2ndtimearound said:

You're using one single data point in the past to form a "pattern".

You are 100% correct. Fundamentals will ALWAYS  win out in the long term. However, the markets are governed by a set of rules/laws that determine the characteristics of price fluctuations. This even holds true when the price are being manipulated (with exception to a trading bot "running wild".) 

Edited by ObeyTheWafflehouse

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1 hour ago, ObeyTheWafflehouse said:

You are 100% correct. Fundamentals will ALWAYS  win out in the long term. However, the markets are governed by a set of rules/laws that determine the characteristics of price fluctuations. This even holds true when the price are being manipulated (with exception to a trading bot "running wild".) 

But one data point does not constitute a "rule" - it's just one data point.  This bear market could be 1500 days in length, or it might end today.  It won't be around 560 days in length because the last one was - it will end (IMO) when fundamentals put a whole new perspective on the market (i.e. US regulations like it or not, even though it's a big world).  Regulations will give the green light to institutional investors.  When that will happen nobody knows - not while the US government is shut down, that's for sure :D

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12 hours ago, 2ndtimearound said:

But one data point does not constitute a "rule" - it's just one data point.

I'm sorry I should have been a little more clear on that. I agree, one data point does not constitute a rule/law.  I was referring to how markets move or prices fluctuate in general, not only in crypto.

I think market timing is very important, but from my research TA operates under a "if and then" scenario that needs constant assessment. You cannot pin point market reversals based on the number of days of a bear market or bull market (but I think it is important to take note). Generally speaking, you do need some type of catalyst to break out of these bear markets (QE, influx of smart money, new policies, etc.) Fundamentals WILL be what takes us out of this bear market, because the fundamentals NEED to support the current price otherwise the markets will keep continuing in the downward direction. I think we are on the same page here. :)

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16 hours ago, ObeyTheWafflehouse said:

I'm sorry I should have been a little more clear on that. I agree, one data point does not constitute a rule/law.  I was referring to how markets move or prices fluctuate in general, not only in crypto.

I think market timing is very important, but from my research TA operates under a "if and then" scenario that needs constant assessment. You cannot pin point market reversals based on the number of days of a bear market or bull market (but I think it is important to take note). Generally speaking, you do need some type of catalyst to break out of these bear markets (QE, influx of smart money, new policies, etc.) Fundamentals WILL be what takes us out of this bear market, because the fundamentals NEED to support the current price otherwise the markets will keep continuing in the downward direction. I think we are on the same page here. :)

Currently it's speculation all over the place, little to no utility. Aside from TA, what I saw in the months before BTC and XRP went parabolic was the regular news reporting positive all over the place on BTC and alts. That slowly drove more retail investors to set up a wallet and start buying.

At this moment I don't see any news, besides on the crypto sites ofcourse. It's absolutely silent. So first we will need a reversal of trend, then news outlets to report the growth, more positive news attracting and sets up existing (currently dorment because hurt in 2017/2018) and new investors, and then a new parabolic run could build up and happen. But that will take months of preparation and gradual build up of prices before anything like end 2017 can happen.

That, or something sudden and big comes up with great utility and the price explodes at an instant.

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