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What is Ripple waiting on??


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1 hour ago, Yodaxrp said:

Have to disagree with you here mate... If you build a 100km highway to connect A to B and you're at km 99, what has been done up to now is irrelevant, because you're still missing the target. When the works from km 99 to km 100 will be finished, the value of the whole 100km highway will be reflected into the price.

Then we have to agree to disagree. Your metaphor seems inappropriate:  Suppose you are investing in the highway.  If and when it is completed you will get income, lets say a million dollars a year, but as you say until the day it is fully built you get no income.  On day one the highway was just an idea, your shares are valued as a pipe dream at 1 dollar.  At the end of year 1 you have planning consent, the chances of it being built are higher so your shares are worth 2 dollars.  At the end of year three you have bought the land and built the first mile, your shares are worth five dollars.  At the end of year five you have built 99% of the highways, completion is a near certainty and your shareholders can calculate a 99% chance of an annual dividend of 10 dollars a year, your shares are now worth 200 dollars.

The nearer you are to completion the higher the value of your assets. XRP has been tested, it has partners, it has no peers.  This momentum towards the finishing line make the asset (XRP) have value directly related to the calculated income minus the by now negligible risk.  XRP is already a valuable, medium to low risk investment, but this is not reflected in the price.  This is because the market is underwritten by a group of investors that do not comprehend the strategy of Ripple and the superiority of XRP/Coil/Codius/The ILP and Ripplenet to Eth and Btc (Which are more highly valued by the immature crypto community investors)

By the way I do not want to think of XRP as a share, but having started with your metaphor I had to ride with the analogy in this one instance.

I think we both agree we have to wait and be patient

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The thumbs up from US regulators.

I agree , what about them giving us chocolate chip cookies while we wait patiently, or call me weird but a good foot rub wouldn't go astray. 

A year long bear market turns speculators into doom merchants.  It's just human nature.  So now people question things, they have a momentum bias toward price going lower, and even for some people it'

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31 minutes ago, KarmaCoverage said:

Mid/early 2013, needed a tool for cheap transactions to support KarmaCoverage service's financial model.

I think the key issue is people mistake "markets" and "crowdsourcing methods" as a mechanism that always 100% reveals the "truth", or "true price" or "true value".

This not always the case. For example, XRP is still undervalued.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/expert-view/you-cannot-be-successful-if-you-are-betting-with-the-consensus-ray-dalio-bridgewater-associates/articleshow/61911170.cms

The situation here (as I see it) is that the hurd is just showing up, and all the media and hype signs say "bitcoin", so folks take their investment capital's value and go in the direction of bitcoin.

Signs say what the artist wants to say... so they are not always right.

One sign many look at is, "market price". But that amounts to "betting on the consensus". 

Make sure you know wherethe herd is, and where they are going. Invest before they get here, sell just when most of the herd has arrived.

5 years is not really a long time. It took Amazon over 21 years to get from $1.50 in 1997 to the current $1,570. I know adoption rates these days are much faster but even a 5 year time scale is too much to ask considering blockchain and dlt is ushering a new age. I say this because Amazon launched at a time when the Internet was young and nobody knew what to make of it and it grew as we went along as the internet matured. Ripple is in the same situation currently as its trying to market a product based on a technology that really took the spotlight just last bull run so even if the adoption would be twice as fast as Amazon then 10 years is my best estimate. 

I'll probably get ridiculed to hell and back but it doesn't really matter, if I'm right we win and I'm wrong, we still win. Clinton ushered regulations for the internet in the early 90s and Amazon launched in 1994 and the rest was history. We barely have any regulations for cryptos. 

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1 hour ago, mrhat75 said:

I also don't buy the regulation bullcrap. If it was uncertain, Catalyst wouldn't be en route (or already using) xRapid

I don't think it's about regulating securities v non-securities, the regulation would hopefully provide custody clarification. Protections, etc. 

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14 minutes ago, Julian_Williams said:

The nearer you are to completion the higher the value of your assets

Perhaps the market still doesn't believe in your ability to complete the work. Unfortunatly, in this case, the market is always correct. Another interesting question is/will be, if xrp is listed in the correct market. At a certain stage, treating it as a bridge asset, shouldn't it be listed in the FX market?

No doubt that patience is the key word here. We're fighting a WW1 and not a Blitzkrieg.

 

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17 minutes ago, Yodaxrp said:

Perhaps the market still doesn't believe in your ability to complete the work. Unfortunatly, in this case, the market is always correct. Another interesting question is/will be, if xrp is listed in the correct market. At a certain stage, treating it as a bridge asset, shouldn't it be listed in the FX market?

No doubt that patience is the key word here. We're fighting a WW1 and not a Blitzkrieg.

 

Yes - I think XRP is in the wrong market.  I do not understand why you think the market is always correct, surely if that was the case their would be no bubbles and the value would not zigzag up and down.  When we buy and sell we are usually betting that the market is wrong and we are right.

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I believe it's in Ripple's best interest to not be seen as a catalyst for XRP price movement. As many have said here, it's best (for us) to think of Ripple as a software company and XRP its preferred DA. If Ripple made more statements to influence the price, the community would praise/blame them for price manipulation. Best to let this unfold slowly, with speculative pumps along the way.

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4 hours ago, Konan45 said:

Really... I've been in XRP a long time. Been on this forum for a year. Always urged patience, had faith they would get the results they are working towards. Still do. 

 

But really. It's been so long. They have the partnerships. They have news. What are they doing?! It is TIME to give the community and the market SOMETHING. 

They are clearly waiting for me to accumulate more. I’m hurrying, but I have a very limited income and it’s going to take a long time to accumulate enough to send my kids to college, and buy our family dream home. Be patient though... just a few more months....

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2 hours ago, Malloy said:

I'd say if you look at this data we're about in 2001 when Amazon bottomed at 5.97....note that just a year+ before it topped at 106.70 at the top of the dot.com bubble...the only big difference if the parallel is good is the time frame...XRP will move much faster IMO...but still..."IF" this works as planned it will take some time...

 

 

Good stuff @Malloy,

I’m no expert by any stretch of the imagination but I see, think and feel the same thing.  In fact, in Geoffrey A. Moore’s book Crossing the Chasm (3rd edition) he writes about the gap between the early adopters and the early majority in the Technology Adoption Life Cycle.  This gap has been revised in this third revision of his book (circa 2016) and is now amended as a ‘chasm’ vs. a gap.  A wide and treacherous chasm that all companies do not make it across.  They have great tech but never make it across the great divide from the early adopters to the early majority despite previous accolades and rising value.  I see this like that time frame you mention above – after the dot-com boom and bust and then subsequent value gain for Amazon.  I suggest Amazon as a great example of crossing the chasm.

A couple of examples he notes as ‘body’s in the chasm’ are Segways and Motorola’s Iridium satellite phone.  Both great technology and seemingly very useful ideas to catch on but each with its own showstopper.  Segway’s nemeses are stairs – they simply don’t do stairs and stairs pop up everywhere.  Iridium phones nemeses are buildings – they simply don’t get satellite reception inside buildings (and they are so much bulkier compared to the typical cell phone).  With both examples, the technology to deliver each capability is downright amazing.  And yet both delivered a horrible return to its investors because each had a showstopper that could not be overcome.  And they both may forever languish in the chasm between the early adopters and the early majority.

I think we may simply be crossing the chasm today.  And when I say ‘we’ I mean all of crypto.  I see each crypto as being on their own journey across the chasm with differing hurdles ahead and behind them.  I get the impression that team Ripple has cleared far more hurdles crossing the chasm than all of those in the space.  They have a plan and have adjusted that plan numerous times from lessons learned, new hurdles placed into view and new opportunities spotted.  And Ripple stays focused on solving the problems they set out to solve and that helps us (us XRP HODLrs) crossing the chasm as well as the quickest way across anything is in a straight focused line.  And I see team Ripple focused and relentless in crossing the chasm.

This may also be why BG a year or so ago said he’ll wait 3-5 years for looking success.  He’s actually been in the high-tech world a while and has probably drawn a like conclusion from his experience and his observation and reflection of others.  He may have anticipated the chasm and the struggles in crossing.  Are the struggles proving more than he anticipated?  I think that’s probable.  Are the struggles insurmountable?  I don’t think so.  I think that many of the hurdles are simply not in team Ripple’s world to solve.  I think Ripple goes out of their way to assist others with the hurdles by motivating, adapting, educating, supporting, etc. 

If we are indeed crossing this so-called chasm then we have a possible vision of our future.  It could be a period of moderate price movement both up and down but basically moving sideways.  IF true is this bad news?  I don’t think so.  I’m going to stay the course and acquire and hold XRP while its price remains relatively calm.  I see having this time crossing chasm as a good thing.  Am I mad or frustrated because I’m not out mooning the world from my lambo today?  No.  Sounds like fun but I’ll pass.  But I do feel much better knowing that what we may indeed be experiencing is something not all that unique.  It’s happened numerous times before.  And those that make it across the chasm are handsomely rewarded. 

You have to ask yourself then: Do you feel comfortable with the objective, the course and the team working to cross this chasm?  If yes – please remain calm and seated.  If no – please scream and run with your arms flailing.  There’ll be a time in the future for you to get back into XRP.

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12 hours ago, Konan45 said:

Really... I've been in XRP a long time. Been on this forum for a year. Always urged patience, had faith they would get the results they are working towards. Still do. 

 

But really. It's been so long. They have the partnerships. They have news. What are they doing?! It is TIME to give the community and the market SOMETHING. 

I have done nothing more than buy xrp and park it in a wallet. I've not written code. I've not negotiated partnerships. I've not spoken to industry professionals. I've not spoken to regulators. I'm the least entitled to "something". If you're anything like me, we are the only ones "waiting".

I think it's unfair to be critical of the people who have been proactive. I can relate to your frustration but it's misdirected. 

Wait or don't wait. 

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28 minutes ago, Roaring_Twenties said:

(...)

You have to ask yourself then: Do you feel comfortable with the objective, the course and the team working to cross this chasm?  If yes – please remain calm and seated.  If no – please scream and run with your arms flailing.  There’ll be a time in the future for you to get back into XRP.

+1

Great post!

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41 minutes ago, Roaring_Twenties said:

Good stuff @Malloy,

I’m no expert by any stretch of the imagination but I see, think and feel the same thing.  In fact, in Geoffrey A. Moore’s book Crossing the Chasm (3rd edition) he writes about the gap between the early adopters and the early majority in the Technology Adoption Life Cycle.  This gap has been revised in this third revision of his book (circa 2016) and is now amended as a ‘chasm’ vs. a gap.  A wide and treacherous chasm that all companies do not make it across.  They have great tech but never make it across the great divide from the early adopters to the early majority despite previous accolades and rising value.  I see this like that time frame you mention above – after the dot-com boom and bust and then subsequent value gain for Amazon.  I suggest Amazon as a great example of crossing the chasm.

A couple of examples he notes as ‘body’s in the chasm’ are Segways and Motorola’s Iridium satellite phone.  Both great technology and seemingly very useful ideas to catch on but each with its own showstopper.  Segway’s nemeses are stairs – they simply don’t do stairs and stairs pop up everywhere.  Iridium phones nemeses are buildings – they simply don’t get satellite reception inside buildings (and they are so much bulkier compared to the typical cell phone).  With both examples, the technology to deliver each capability is downright amazing.  And yet both delivered a horrible return to its investors because each had a showstopper that could not be overcome.  And they both may forever languish in the chasm between the early adopters and the early majority.

I think we may simply be crossing the chasm today.  And when I say ‘we’ I mean all of crypto.  I see each crypto as being on their own journey across the chasm with differing hurdles ahead and behind them.  I get the impression that team Ripple has cleared far more hurdles crossing the chasm than all of those in the space.  They have a plan and have adjusted that plan numerous times from lessons learned, new hurdles placed into view and new opportunities spotted.  And Ripple stays focused on solving the problems they set out to solve and that helps us (us XRP HODLrs) crossing the chasm as well as the quickest way across anything is in a straight focused line.  And I see team Ripple focused and relentless in crossing the chasm.

This may also be why BG a year or so ago said he’ll wait 3-5 years for looking success.  He’s actually been in the high-tech world a while and has probably drawn a like conclusion from his experience and his observation and reflection of others.  He may have anticipated the chasm and the struggles in crossing.  Are the struggles proving more than he anticipated?  I think that’s probable.  Are the struggles insurmountable?  I don’t think so.  I think that many of the hurdles are simply not in team Ripple’s world to solve.  I think Ripple goes out of their way to assist others with the hurdles by motivating, adapting, educating, supporting, etc. 

If we are indeed crossing this so-called chasm then we have a possible vision of our future.  It could be a period of moderate price movement both up and down but basically moving sideways.  IF true is this bad news?  I don’t think so.  I’m going to stay the course and acquire and hold XRP while its price remains relatively calm.  I see having this time crossing chasm as a good thing.  Am I mad or frustrated because I’m not out mooning the world from my lambo today?  No.  Sounds like fun but I’ll pass.  But I do feel much better knowing that what we may indeed be experiencing is something not all that unique.  It’s happened numerous times before.  And those that make it across the chasm are handsomely rewarded. 

You have to ask yourself then: Do you feel comfortable with the objective, the course and the team working to cross this chasm?  If yes – please remain calm and seated.  If no – please scream and run with your arms flailing.  There’ll be a time in the future for you to get back into XRP.

I posted this viewpoint prior but one interesting possibility for crypto and not necessarily XRP specifically is IMF coming up on their 2020 SDR review. They gave one year notice last time they changed the SDR basket - notification in 2015 that in 2016 they were adding CNY. It is up for review every 5 years per historical precedent. As we enter the world of possible central bank digital currencies (CBDC charts, forums, news, etc.) I think a cool idea is having a basket within the basket for 2020, so the current fiat basket and a combined bridge asset basket in some equation that equals the SDR valuation. So 2019 isn't 3-5 years away but it comes down to the XRP valuation perspective I guess. 'What is the moon' sort of thing.

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