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2019 is gonna be epic

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2 hours ago, Julian_Williams said:

The only coin everyone has heard and read about is Bitcoin

and even today, a decade since it was created, if you ask many people what they think bitcoin is, they'll say its some illegal coin or something to do with drugs haha

Edited by XRPto50dollars

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On 12/28/2018 at 8:20 AM, Archbob said:

That was during a FOMO though and as was seen, it was not sustainable. $4 trillion or if you use Yahoo's method of calculating, $10 trillion, is half or more of the USA GDP. You don't actually need nearly that much to transfer money, given xrapid's speed.

There's not 40 billion XRP on exchanges though - nowhere near that amount.  Maybe try 4 billion tops...something we don't really know...but I would estimate at least 90% of XRP in circulation is not on exchange order books, but stored away by holders at any given moment in time.  With any market, prices are set by the most recent buys.  Market Cap is a theoretical value, it can never be realised (this has been said many times).  If everyone cashed out at the same time, the price would tank down to near zero.  When XRP loses $10s of billions in market cap (as it has done this year), do you say "where did the money go?" - no you don't say that, because you know it wasn't there in the first place.  It's a theoretical value.  It doesn't matter if you think a market cap "can't" be X trillions - the market decides what XRP is worth on any given day based on supply and demand.  If supply isn't enough, price goes up.  If it's more than enough, price goes down. 

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Yes, but those issue is, as price gets higher, a good percentage of those holders are going to start dumping and you won't be able to maintain the price. We saw this happen in the last FOMO early 2018, as well as the x-rapid launch, and the November pumps due to the fake moon news(IMO). I think the dumping will get too severe for the price to keep moving up far before it gets to $50 right now.

Edited by Archbob

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1 hour ago, Archbob said:

Yes, but those issue is, as price gets higher, a good percentage of those holders are going to start dumping and you won't be able to maintain the price. We saw this happen in the last FOMO early 2018, as well as the x-rapid launch, and the November pumps due to the fake moon news(IMO). I think the dumping will get too severe for the price to keep moving up far before it gets to $50 right now.

IMO, it depends how we get there.  If we get there through a high demand from utility volume, then utility volume can act as a backstop to prices falling too far. Of course people take profits, but the more demand there is for XRP, the higher its price will be.  Utility volume will add that extra demand on exchanges.  I wish people would stop talking about $100 and prices of that magnitude....how about we get to $5 first of all and see how it maintains there.  Of course if we look at an outlandish value, it's easy to say "how can we sustain that price?" - Rome wasn't built in a day....crawl, walk, run....first mile of a marathon.  Take it easy....let's get past $1 in 2019 and see how we get on :)

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5 hours ago, Julian_Williams said:

I always read what you write because you are obviously intelligent, experienced, successful and knowledgeable about the crypto market but I always find myself adding a pinch of salt.  Your approach to your prediction is simply logic and I just don't think XRP will behave like one more crypto. 

Ripple/XRP is different from all the other cryptos because it catches the mind and people become obsessed.  Ripple/XRP catches the moonies and deep thinkers alike.  It catches the attention of anyone who touches it because the story it creates make dreams too compelling to ignore - Every element is there;   The Bankers Coin (bankers make money); Silicon Valley start up (think Amazon Uber and Apple); Multi trillion SWIFT market to disrupt and dominate; International politics; Deep deep pockets through ownership of 50% of the XRP; Rumours of associations with every glamorous company on Earth (Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Uber, Amex and Paypal); Many big banks and central banks and their empires; Associations with national regulatory authorities; The big institutions of multilateral government (The IMF, G8),  The big exchanges,  The poor in Africa and the maids sending money home to the Philippines via an ap on her phone.

The only coin everyone has heard and read about is Bitcoin, XRP's story at present is wrapped and hidden away under the swamp of crypto scandal surrounding Bitcoin.   If people are introduced to XRP they think Bitcoin. At some point XRP will break out from under this shroud, when this happens the XRP story will dominate every dinner party and the financial sections of every newspaper. This is not a bunch of anarchists in their bedsits betting on Bitcoins being used for shopping, this is Dutch Tulip Bulb stuff.

I do not know when this will happen, or the spark that will set it off, or how fast it will ratchet itself up, but happen it will. 

Maybe I will be proved wrong.  It is just my gut feeling from what I see happening in this space and it is mesmerising to watch it unfold.

This is my take. It will be global, involving retail and banks etc. 100 is possible... xrp already is a global currency showing lots of support at 30c. Easy to buy, easy to sell and use. Easy to transport. Could also go to zero... :)

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3 hours ago, Doctor said:

This is my take. It will be global, involving retail and banks etc. 100 is possible... xrp already is a global currency showing lots of support at 30c. Easy to buy, easy to sell and use. Easy to transport. Could also go to zero... :)

I find going to zero impossible to imagine:  Ripple/XRP have already infected (and reinvented) such a broad spectrum of the banking/fintech industries. Their ILP/Xcurrent/DA now has momentum.  There is nothing else with XRP's speed and scalability that has been tested, and they have worked with the regulators.  They also have the most user friendly smart contract software and this ecosystem of support from outside the fintech/banking industry.  I just do not see anything that has the ability to threaten them growing their dominance.

Edited by Julian_Williams

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14 hours ago, Ripple-Stiltskin said:

Einstein already said it:

MC =  BS 

I’m an apple farmer and I go to the Saloon to meet Leroy who has a sack of 100 xrp to sell. We agree to exhange at a rate of 1 apple for 1 xrp so I pay Leroy 100 apples and I go home with 100 xrp.  The next day i hear Leroy has another 100 xrp to sell and when I show up to the Saloon I see several apple farmers are there this time and have bid up the price to a rate of 7 apples for 1 xrp. I walk back to the farm without any additional xrp this time but I am at least happy to know my existing 100 xrp has created 700 apples of wealth off an initial 100 apple investment. 

This is the classic market cap example, however @Archbob does have a point which I will continue to elaborate on when we go back to see our old pal Leroy.

I take the horse buggy and cart filled with load of apples this time to the Saloon for surely I want to buy more xrp before the price goes up any more. I can’t even get inside because now there are 99 farmers standing outside. This time there are carrot farmers, potato farmers as well as additional apple farmers all trying to trade for xrp. I catch whiff that the calculated price is 200 apples for 1 xrp! How can this be I think to myself!? I now have to begin to rationalize that my apple farm only grows 1,000 apples per month in which half (500) of them must be sold for operating expenses. I need to eat another (100) to survive. I walk away with 2 xrp for a whopping 400 apples!

I stop going to see Leroy at this point. I just don’t have enough apples to sustain the extremely high price. Even worse a drought comes and I have to start selling xrp for apples to keep the farm up and running. I head over to the saloon and find out Leroy isn’t there. The bartender tells me Leroy sold all his xrp and is retired somewhere in Portugal.  I ask where are all the other farmers? The bartender responds they couldn’t physically grow crops fast enough to buy xrp at its 200 apple price and decided to stop buying it. “But I will buy your xrp at a rate of 1/2 an apple per xrp” the bartender excitedly proclaims.  I reluctantly agree, go back to the farm and cry myself to sleep.

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25 minutes ago, ManBearPig said:

my existing 100 xrp has created 700 apples of wealth off an initial 100 apple investment. 

Sell! 

25 minutes ago, ManBearPig said:

I catch whiff that the calculated price is 200 apples for 1 xrp! 

So sell your XRP now! 

25 minutes ago, ManBearPig said:

This time there are carrot farmers, potato farmers as well as additional apple farmers all trying to trade for xrp. 

No, we have a thing called “ money” nowadays, fiat, instead of the old “  a chicken for a potato” economy. 

25 minutes ago, ManBearPig said:

I walk away with 2 xrp for a whopping 400 apples!

Still buying??? You need to sell your 100 XRP for 20,000 apples, NOW! 

 

Your example says nothing: what’s your premises? That there ain’t enough money to sustain XRP at $ 100? ( disagree). That XRP won’t get to $ 100 overnight? ( I agree). That if everyone sells at the same time ( which isn’t realistic) price will go to almost zero ( agree with a huge dip). 

Market Cap is a useless metric : the delta of the MC doesn’t equal the delta of needed money inflow.  And yes: if everybody buys at the same time or sells at the exact same price, market will go nuts.

According to this reasoning BTC never could have gone from sub dollar to 20K, same with ETH, same with XRP from 0,06 to 3. 

I see no restraints in XRP at $ 100 , other than some time needed ( besides utility, FOMO, bull market etc).  

Edited by Ripple-Stiltskin

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7 hours ago, Archbob said:

Yes, but those issue is, as price gets higher, a good percentage of those holders are going to start dumping and you won't be able to maintain the price. We saw this happen in the last FOMO early 2018, as well as the x-rapid launch, and the November pumps due to the fake moon news(IMO). I think the dumping will get too severe for the price to keep moving up far before it gets to $50 right now.

Still:  XRP at 0,006 two years ago, now at 0,37 >  60 times higher in 2 years.( peaked at roughly 500 times price of 2 yrs ago). 

So what your saying is that 60 times is sustainable, but in the near future there will be too much selling pressure to sustain much higher prices. 

Could be, but there’s no way of knowing or fact based argument to support this statement. Price is a balance between supply and demand at any given time:  if (more) people expect XRP to be $200 in the near future ( for whatever reason), the buying pressure at $50 or $100 will be higher than the selling pressure. Price will rise.

 

 

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@Ripplestiltskin

I couldn’t sell my apples in time because I the proper payment rails were not set up yet to fluidly sell my assets and the bartender was verifying my account to increase my withdrawal limits amongst 99 other farmer’s applications.

Doesn’t xrp serving as a medium of exchange of all fruits and vegetables serve its ultimate function as bridge currency? 

The point is the higher the price goes the more parabolic it must become with every Price increase on top of previous increases. There’s only a finite amount of stimulus other assets can furnish as well unless inflation gets factored in. I can see a 10 trillion dollar overall market cap for all cryptos in the 2020’s. If i had a dollar for a dollar bet XRP would hit that by itself.... I wouldnt make that bet.  Do I deny it’s impossible?? Of course not! 

 

Edited by ManBearPig

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4 minutes ago, ManBearPig said:

couldn’t sell my apples in time because I the proper payment rails were not set up yet to fluidly sell my assets and the bartender was verifying my account to increase my withdrawal limits amongst 99 other farmer’s applications.

Not sure what you intend to say here. My neighbour sold all his ETH in 2017 and cashed out in € ( roughly a million). You’re saying that will be impossible for XRP?

I disagree.  If you want to say that in case of a “ bankrun” ( everybody is trying to cash out XRP at exactly the same time/price,) then you’re right. But that is not realistic ( or is at least a doom scenario). 

9 minutes ago, ManBearPig said:

The point is the higher the price goes the more parabolic it must become with every Price

???? Why???  XRP already went 50000% to the top of $3.   From $ 3 to $ 100 is “only” 3000%. ( try to calculate this for BTC in the last 10 years).  I agree however that at some point the “ lifecycle” of XRP is at its peak, but there’s no way of saying where that will be atm. 

13 minutes ago, ManBearPig said:

I can see a 10 trillion dollar overall market cap for all cryptos in the 2020’s. If i had a dollar for a dollar bet XRP would hit that by itself.... I wouldnt make that bet.

Market Cap says nothing! At $ 100 the MC of XRP is at 4 trillion dollar. So? Apple is at 1 trillion atm, Gold at 8 trillion. So?  What does MC say?  It’s a pure theoretical metric. 

You’re simply stating that you don’t believe XRP will go to $ 100 within two years. And that’s fine, you’re entitled to believe what you believe ( or bet on). But you’re using arguments ( MC, liquidity etc) that aren’t valid at all. 

What do I believe then? 

Well, based on nothing ( as there are still no real fundamental historic utility data for crypto, it’s all speculation up to now), I give XRP a fair chance ( say 50%) to reach a price range of $10 - $ 50 within 2 years. If (big if) bull market returns ( for whatever reason) and XRP will have substantial usage ( “ dozens of banks”). 

I’m literally betting on it.  But that’s all it is: a ( educated) bet.

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9 minutes ago, Ripple-Stiltskin said:

Not sure what you intend to say here. My neighbour sold all his ETH in 2017 and cashed out in € ( roughly a million). You’re saying that will be impossible for XRP?

I disagree.  If you want to say that in case of a “ bankrun” ( everybody is trying to cash out XRP at exactly the same time/price,) then you’re right. But that is not realistic ( or is at least a doom scenario). 

???? Why???  XRP already went 50000% to the top of $3.   From $ 3 to $ 100 is “only” 3000%. ( try to calculate this for BTC in the last 10 years).  I agree however that at some point the “ lifecycle” of XRP is at its peak, but there’s no way of saying where that will be atm. 

Market Cap says nothing! At $ 100 the MC of XRP is at 4 trillion dollar. So? Apple is at 1 trillion atm, Gold at 8 trillion. So?  What does MC say?  It’s a pure theoretical metric. 

You’re simply stating that you don’t believe XRP will go to $ 100 within two years. And that’s fine, you’re entitled to believe what you believe ( or bet on). But you’re using arguments ( MC, liquidity etc) that aren’t valid at all. 

What do I believe then? 

Well, based on nothing ( as there are still no real fundamental historic utility data for crypto, it’s all speculation up to now), I give XRP a fair chance ( say 50%) to reach a price range of $10 - $ 50 within 2 years. If (big if) bull market returns ( for whatever reason) and XRP will have substantial usage ( “ dozens of banks”). 

I’m literally betting on it.  But that’s all it is: a ( educated) bet.

Did your neighbor originally buy ethereum from old Leroy at the Saloon with apples or carrots? I hear Leroy likes them carrots better so perhaps your neighbor head preferrential treatment. Then again it depends on his mood.

The underlying forces to continually push prices higher require additional momentum as they get higher. The same amount of percentage increase requires more capital to go from 10 to 100, than it would from 1 to 10. The energy required is not lineal in nature but rather exponential.

If I am riding my 2-horse horse buggy carriage to the saloon I can sprint there at 15 miles per hour. So what if I hook up a 4-hourse carriage? I should theoretically travel twice as fast. The truth is it can only top out at 23.5 miles hour. Every mile per hour above that will have a diminishing return per horse power. If something could be invented to furnish a tremendous amount of utility, such as the combustible engine, then we could look at exponential increases beyond what has already been achieved.

 

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39 minutes ago, ManBearPig said:

Did your neighbor originally buy ethereum from old Leroy at the Saloon with apples or carrots? I hear Leroy likes them carrots better so perhaps your neighbor head preferrential treatment. Then again it depends on his mood.

?????? Maybe better leave the analogies here and speak in normal, economical language. Bought at Kraken jan 2017, sold at Kraken , cashed out at Kraken around mid to end 2017. So, what else?

39 minutes ago, ManBearPig said:

The underlying forces to continually push prices higher require additional momentum as they get higher. The same amount of percentage increase requires more capital to go from 10 to 100, than it would from 1 to 10. The energy required is not lineal in nature but rather exponential.

No. We can have ( we’ve had) parabolic rises to $ 3 ( 50000% in 3 yrs) and then go in a more or less lineair way to $ 100. ( 3000% or 5 times doubling in a couple of years). > I don’t say it will go to $1500 ( another 50000% from $ 3).  Diminishing increase, yes, but enough to reach “ impossible” prices. 

39 minutes ago, ManBearPig said:

 If something could be invented to furnish a tremendous amount of utility, such as the combustible engine, then we could look at exponential increases beyond what has already been achieved.

You mean something like “ dozens of banks” or “ 50 central banks” using XRP? 

Edited by Ripple-Stiltskin

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Genuine question: Why to cash out if xrp will hit $100 or more?

Today there's already the possibility to deposit our xrp to a bank, like shares or bonds. Pretty sure that in a couple of year we'll have bank accounts denominated in xrp (instead of usd, chf, yen and so on). Should xrp have utility at this point, considering his deflationary nature, I guess the banks will be able to pay you an "interesting interest rate". Therefore in this case I don't see the need to cash out in an inflationary fiat, just use the interest rate to finance your life (in fiat) and let the capital work for you!

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