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MegaNerd

TA People.. what say you now?

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1 hour ago, Eric123 said:

Honestly, I think most analysts just like to be shocking with their predictions of how low the price of bitcoin will go.  Here's the thing - They all missed the move to $20k!!!  Show me one TA guy that saw bitcoin going from $.01 to $20K. If they didn't see the run up coming what makes you so sure  they know it's coming down.  Cause if they did see the run up coming they would be too rich to bother with posting about TA.  I'd be shocked if we go below $3k I put very little weight on anyone's TA predictions.  The only people who's predictions I really put weight on are visionaries that see bitcoin as a revolutionary tech and not just a chart. Tim Draper for instance said bitcoin was going to $10k years before and predicted it almost to the month it happened and now he says its going to $225k by 2022.   I don't know the future but I'd guess the $225k prediction is more reliable than the 1.2k predictions.

i take it you only read the part someone posted here that said "$1200"

Edited by trubbleinmind

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1 hour ago, Eric123 said:

Show me one TA guy that saw bitcoin going from $.01 to $20K

Tyler Jenks saw a hyperwave developing in BTC in mid 2017 and went in “heavy”. Apparently sold most of his holdings or all (per himself) just before the peak 1 yr ago.  He has been calling for 1k since and advising everyone to sell since and sell all Alts.  No reason to hold anything (per him).

thus is all per his report and his analysis.

 

ps.  I haven’t really listened to him until now,  instead have been swinging this market all year.   I won’t trade my long term xrp stack on a fundamental basis.  But after listening to Jenks he seems to be on to something...maybe he will give an “all-in” call for BTC again but that is not likely until a reset to 1k.  He is a long term bull however has analyses hyper waves since the 70’s in all sorts of asset markets.

Edited by Excerpts

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4 hours ago, djdhrubs said:

In terms of timing, most seem to reckon we’ll have bottomed by late May/ early June.

They are all very bullish bitcoin long term.

Here's where actual news disturbs the pure chart theory though: if institutional money starts moving in (i.e. Bakkt, Fidelity, IrisX, TD Ameritrade) then the actual reality of institutions doesn't observe chart theory - it moves the price.  I get that TA can be very useful for seeing where prices will be supported and resisted and where people are likely to place their buys and sells, but big news or big whale buys and sells move the price, and the retail market panics/FOMOs to accentuate those moves.  

Edited by 2ndtimearound

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1 hour ago, 2ndtimearound said:

Here's where actual news disturbs the pure chart theory though: if institutional money starts moving in (i.e. Bakkt, Fidelity, IrisX, TD Ameritrade) then the actual reality of institutions doesn't observe chart theory - it moves the price.  I get that TA can be very useful for seeing where prices will be supported and resisted and where people are likely to place their buys and sells, but big news or big whale buys and sells move the price, and the retail market panics/FOMOs to accentuate those moves.  

I can’t argue with this. However you will be surprised, and I am constantly amazed, how a big news event just happens to occur just as a chart is reaching a major decision point.

The move is attributed to the news by people who don’t believe in TA. Those that do will tell you that the charts showed the news before it occurred. 

To me it’s all very interesting!

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1 hour ago, djdhrubs said:

I can’t argue with this. However you will be surprised, and I am constantly amazed, how a big news event just happens to occur just as a chart is reaching a major decision point.

The move is attributed to the news by people who don’t believe in TA. Those that do will tell you that the charts showed the news before it occurred. 

To me it’s all very interesting!

 

There’s always stuff of the charts though like coinbase listings, rumours bought and news sold. If new exchanges add a ton of institutional money, that ought to add upward pressure to the prices of assets with a fixed supply. 

 

 

 

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@trubbleinmind No I read it, I've also read dozens of predictions saying bitcoin is going anywhere from $2k to $100 to $0. @Excerpts the time to get in heavy was way before mid 2017 - so basically he missed the $.005 to $3.60 on xrp and maybe he 5x'ed his money on bitcoin.  THOSE ARE ROOKIE NUMBERS IN THIS BUSINESS.

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My question is always "who are the people who move the charts to move the other people?" At some point a consensus of expectations becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, no? Isn't that why TA aficionados have to keep coming up with new indicators?

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On 12/19/2018 at 9:37 PM, MegaNerd said:

For all of 2018 the price dropped yet not once (that I've seen) has any TA person said (and predicted to be true) that 2018 was going to be a year of falling prices.

Whats up with that?

MagicPoopCannon did and was deeply hated for it.

 

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On 12/20/2018 at 10:37 AM, MegaNerd said:

For all of 2018 the price dropped yet not once (that I've seen) has any TA person said (and predicted to be true) that 2018 was going to be a year of falling prices.

Whats up with that?

TA's not absolute.  It's just another tool that helps gauge the underlying psychology of a market. 

But I have found that if you're serious about it, and learn from 1 or 2 people who are clearly very experienced at it - That you can increase your odds of making the right call more often than not. 

I also find it interesting that TA has shown a 80-90% correction in every instance where BTC has had more than a 1000> % increase.  

In saying all this, i still don't really understand what your post is asking.  Are you looking for someone with a crystal ball that will tell you what moves to make, or are you simply looking for someone to blame because it's been a depressing year and your attempt at TA hasn't worked out? 

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On 12/19/2018 at 11:37 PM, MegaNerd said:

For all of 2018 the price dropped yet not once (that I've seen) has any TA person said (and predicted to be true) that 2018 was going to be a year of falling prices.

 Whats up with that?

Read my other posts from this and last year. I said XRP is  S H I T, a big rip off. And a lot of turds from xrpchat are paid to spread their bs on this forum.

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