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2ndtimearound

For those waiting for "confirmation" we are out of a bear market, what constitutes as a "confirmation"?

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Some queries on this:-

  • what constitutes as a confirmation? Number of days of the price going up, or a particular price point?
  • you must hold your entire position in Tether or some other stable coin....or are you really going to somehow average in (post "confirmation") when the price is going up so fast? Bull runs tend to be a lot faster in price action than bear markets
  • how do you avoid bull traps? How many times do you get caught out by bull traps? Do you just do a stop loss on those buys? If so, have you considered the tax implications of this strategy?

I would like to understand this strategy more.  I just see it as a "when I feel good about buying, I'll buy" type thing.  I leave my feelings alone when buying and selling.  I did some sells in the last bull run that were uncomfortable.  I knew I would almost certainly be missing out on higher prices, but it's about locking in profits.  Similarly, I've been buying at 27c and 28c quite a lot in recent days, even though I was sure the price was going down further (and still could do) - in my mind, I was locking in (relative to the future price) low price buys.  None of these buys and sells feel particularly good at the time. 

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When we pass the last all time high, that to me is the start of the next bull cycle. 

Others will debate me on this. That's okay. 

Usage. A sustainable price. 

We could go up and down with these pump and dumps, but we won't be in the clear until volumes are over a billion for XRP. 

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4 minutes ago, Mr_Cambridge said:

When we pass the last all time high, that to me is the start of the next bull cycle. 

Others will debate me on this. That's okayFair en. 

Usage. A sustainable price. 

We could go up and down with these pump and dumps, but we won't be in the clear until volumes are over a billion for XRP. 

Fair enough, thanks for your response.  Would you be buying at those prices?  Some people have said they won't buy in a bear market (spekul8 being one) until a confirmation is shown that the market is completely out of the bear cycle.  I respect that strategy, but I also think it's risky in that you're inevitably missing out on lower prices when buying. 

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3 hours ago, kickstart said:

What about side ways actions and slow growth over few months? 

That's possible, but you run the risk of it not happening - a bull run occurs and it blindsides you and you miss the train completely.  For me, if you're in a bear market, well...things tend to move slowly...these seasons are often many many months....so accumulating carefully and slowly in a bear market an asset you truly think has a future is more slow paced and gives you time.  Sure, the price action you described COULD happen, but it's not guaranteed.  For example, if the SEC officially announces XRP to not be a security - this can cause a bull run.  What if you want to have a big position in XRP? How do you build it? Buy 50K+ of XRP in one buy while the price is moving like a bullet upwards? Or somehow DCA buy in a bull run (really not possible without having a big average DCA).   Overall, I recognise there are many strategies...but each has its own risk profile.

Edited by 2ndtimearound

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53 minutes ago, XRP-JAG said:

Higher highs and lower lows.

Looking at the daily chart since 21st Sept (the XRP run), we continually pump lower than the last high, followed by bleeding lower than the previous low.

We want to see a pump above the last pump, and a dump that is not as low as the previous low.

9E911893-DD31-4A92-8B28-B0B5DC91A35E.thumb.png.cc4de82ca81c6d80423b54f767776b8c.png

Zoom out and you'll be able to paint a positive picture.

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6 hours ago, 2ndtimearound said:

Fair enough, thanks for your response.  Would you be buying at those prices?  Some people have said they won't buy in a bear market (spekul8 being one) until a confirmation is shown that the market is completely out of the bear cycle.  I respect that strategy, but I also think it's risky in that you're inevitably missing out on lower prices when buying. 

I'm currently watching the prices and will buy the dips below my current DCA (if we dip that low) with money I can spare, or my company yearly bonus.

I'll have two stacks, one I will exit with at certain price points and one for my kids, which I won't touch. They can inherit those zerps. Hopefully in 30 years the fabled 589 will come to fruition.

My plan is simple, accumulate when I can below my DCA and sell to instutional investors and future heavy wait speculators when this market turns around, which I think will take perhaps three to five years to restart the next run. Too many people got burned during the last runnup for this to turn around sooner, and we need a mature market. I don't think I'll be buying when XRP is plus 10$. By then, I would have had enough of crypto and will invest in hard income producing assets. 

My dream is to cash flow Fiat and crypto, perhaps even XRP through real estate. Fingers crossed. 

Edited by Guest
Emphasis on restart of bull run

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18 minutes ago, Mr_Cambridge said:

I'm currently watching the prices and will buy the dips below my current DCA (if we dip that low) with money I can spare, or my company yearly bonus.

I'll have two stacks, one I will exit with at certain price points and one for my kids, which I won't touch. They can inherit those zerps. Hopefully in 30 years the fabled 589 will come to fruition.

My plan is simple, accumulate when I can below my DCA and sell to instutional investors and future heavy wait speculators when this market turns around, which I think will take perhaps three to five years to restart the next run. Too many people got burned during the last runnup for this to turn around sooner, and we need a mature market. I don't think I'll be buying when XRP is plus 10$. By then, I would have had enough of crypto and will invest in hard income producing assets. 

My dream is to cash flow Fiat and crypto, perhaps even XRP through real estate. Fingers crossed. 

Pretty much the same as me - my buys lower my DCA - when the price gets close to my DCA (I'm in the red on this investment), I'll stop buying.   It's just a psychological thing more than anything else for me. 

You think the next bull run could be 3 to 5 years away? To me that seems excessive - that would really damage the public perception of crypto if it's in the doldrums that long.  It will mean all the institutional exchanges/custodial services were largely unsuccessful in their first 3 to 5 years.  I think 2019 will be a good year for crypto...I can see the SEC at last giving some clarity, ETFs being introduced and of course, Bakkt, Fidelity etc launching....all of this on the back of a severe 1 year long bear market (meaning the market is healthy in that respect, market cycles being observed).

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Just now, LostInXrp said:

When BTC break 8000 and hold their or upper for a week. Any other day is just pump&dump.

 

Cant argue with that. 

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2 hours ago, 2ndtimearound said:

Pretty much the same as me - my buys lower my DCA - when the price gets close to my DCA (I'm in the red on this investment), I'll stop buying.   It's just a psychological thing more than anything else for me. 

You think the next bull run could be 3 to 5 years away? To me that seems excessive - that would really damage the public perception of crypto if it's in the doldrums that long.  It will mean all the institutional exchanges/custodial services were largely unsuccessful in their first 3 to 5 years.  I think 2019 will be a good year for crypto...I can see the SEC at last giving some clarity, ETFs being introduced and of course, Bakkt, Fidelity etc launching....all of this on the back of a severe 1 year long bear market (meaning the market is healthy in that respect, market cycles being observed).

1. No bull market until Feb 2019, when ETF decision ruled out.

2. ETF being introduced - that a strong statement, I believe it will not pass and next waiting phase is - appeal.

3. After strong bull run, there is strong consolidation, 1st consolidation phase at 6xxxk failed. Now we can expect either consolidation trap again, before going to > 2000. Than consolidation that can last from 1 day to 1 year. Than building lower highs, shaking week hands, establishing previous ATH. This process can last years.

 

My conclusion is 2020 is earliest for bull run begining.

 

P.S. hope it have not started now, it will be a shame.

Edited by LostInXrp

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