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anteksiler

xRapid Simulation?

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I do not have the necessary tools at the moment nor my knowledge back in the university, but it should be fairly easy to run a simulation for xRapid and its affect on XRP price.

- Create exchanges and banks as nodes with random XRP holdings.
- Create random transfers 

Maybe group transactions so it won't kill your CPU :)

I remember making a similar one in Excel for London bus stops and watch the number of people in queue.

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3 hours ago, anteksiler said:

I do not have the necessary tools at the moment nor my knowledge back in the university, but it should be fairly easy to run a simulation for xRapid and its affect on XRP price.

- Create exchanges and banks as nodes with random XRP holdings.
- Create random transfers 

Maybe group transactions so it won't kill your CPU :)

I remember making a similar one in Excel for London bus stops and watch the number of people in queue.

''should be fairly easy''

Hold up there Einstein

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4 hours ago, Dario_o said:

Too many variables are unknown to code a reliable simulation (how many market makers? how do they operate? what's their spread?)

It does not have to be very precise to see how the transactions affect volume. We know ballpark figures like 150-200 FIs, 100+ exchanges with FIAT pairs, daily volume etc. We can assume some variables like 10million XRP per exchange / FIs.

1 hour ago, TheXRPNinja said:

''should be fairly easy''

Hold up there Einstein

Yes, it is indeed easy, but probably takes time to build, that's why I did not make one myself. Maybe @galgitron can chime in?

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1 hour ago, anteksiler said:

It does not have to be very precise to see how the transactions affect volume. We know ballpark figures like 150-200 FIs, 100+ exchanges with FIAT pairs, daily volume etc. We can assume some variables like 10million XRP per exchange / FIs.

Yes, it is indeed easy, but probably takes time to build, that's why I did not make one myself. Maybe @galgitron can chime in?

How would that be easy? We don't know how FI react to price increases, cannot simulate slippage adequately, don't know how arbitrage is handled, etc pp. This is far from easy and maybe even has a chaotic character. I mean, we don't even know a single detail about xrapids routing algorithm O.o

Edited by xrp-overflow

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How do you code in/define investor sentiment and psychology - i.e. How do traders/investors react to a sudden spike in volume? Also, how do you model the consequential portfolio reallocation and entry into the crypto market from the more traditional equity/bond/commodity markets? 

The simple buy/sell order book equation is easy to model. How do you model sell and buy pressure after, let's say a 200% rally? 

I think you approach the question in a manner that is too simplistic, thus the model would get you nowhere near real world scenarios. 

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7 hours ago, WillGetThere said:

Thanks, can you explain the logic behind please?

Not right now. I merely wanted to illustrate to the quoted OP that despite the fact that there are numerous unknowns, it is still possible to create models that give predictions. As more data about xRapid appears, I will be able to refine my model to hopefully narrow down the range of results to something manageable. All I know for certain so far is that increasing xRapid volume leads to higher xrp prices.

(note: I deliberately left the labels on my graphs blank to avoid too many questions, but I'm sure the observant reader can work out what the vars are).
 

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11 hours ago, jbjnr said:

You mean something like this?xrp-price-fig_spread.thumb.png.7ffc8b8cba7331e9d36243a6ea4a9e4e.png

Thank you for the effort but how is this simulation remotely reliable without knowing any basic info about xRapid transactions?

Maybe when we'll see xRapid in action we can make more assumptions about its future effects

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49 minutes ago, Dario_o said:

Thank you for the effort but how is this simulation remotely reliable without knowing any basic info about xRapid transactions?

Maybe when we'll see xRapid in action we can make more assumptions about its future effects

If you step back from individual transactions and instead look at the 'flow' of money, then certain principles are in effect that can be modeled. I am waiting for more data about the effects of xRapid to further refine my model. (I do not have experience of how market makers operate). I wanted to try to predict what effect xRapid will have on price so that I can better understand the 'investment' that I have made. I do not require anyone else to believe it or have any confidence in it yet.

Edited by jbjnr
Edit: When the model is good enough to send it to Paul Krugman, then I'll post it here.

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