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What are we seeing, why and what to do.


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13 hours ago, Spekul8 said:

You may ask why is this happening

Well, BTC is coming back to it's pre-Tether pump levels of $2000, as predicted. That's helping to bring us all down with it.
Not to mention Jed's selling and the fact that he can sell even more next March and again in March 2020.

Tough times ahead, Summer 2020 might see the bottom (likely to be single figures)

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@Spekul8, you see only 10% of the picture and pretend that your view is 100% of what is happening.  Manipulation in preparation for insitutional investors (Bakkt, Fidelity, NASDAQ, TD Ameritrade, Eris

Same time last year vs current (current is red and green). The price range is different but we had almost the exact same style of drop and within 1% of each other (23% from top to bottom during the da

If even the former positive forum members are starting to get negative, fight eachother and even some predicting doomsday it's just telling me we're currently on the right track for a final short sque

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7 minutes ago, RippleHerToShreds said:

Well, BTC is coming back to it's pre-Tether pump levels of $2000, as predicted. That's helping to bring us all down with it.
Not to mention Jed's selling and the fact that he can sell even more next March and again in March 2020.

Tough times ahead, Summer 2020 might see the bottom (likely to be single figures)

I disagree. I don't think we will see single figures. We would but IMO, R3, Ripple and the others that are now backing it won't let that happen. In the background, I think certain things will kick in high gear to keep the price high enough to use in the premature corridors. 

This is just my opinion and I could be totally wrong. 

I will say this, if we do hit single digits - get the popcorn out because this is going to get very interesting.

Invest what you can afford to lose people. Nothing is a guarantee, except death and taxes. 

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9 hours ago, 2ndtimearound said:

Specifically about XRP, xRapid is live and Ripple are working on the liquidity problem (which was always a problem, they knew this for years).  R3 announced they will use XRP on Corda Settler.  Liquidity will take time to build up, but investors should already know to be patient and not obsess over price when the fundamentals will drive price in the longer run.  Today's price is irrelevant if you're only holding.  If you're buying, it's very relevant.

Interesting that the "Ripple Drop" today is encouraging about the liquidity of XRP due to recent events. ;)

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13 hours ago, xSODAx said:

TBH: Why do you attack him?
He talked about the market in general and not about XRP.

He is right in large parts and I also expect a total collapse on some coins: NEO, EOS,... BTC will drop well below 3k EOY (maybe it will reach 1.600 in Q1-2019)... we will see more panic lows.... more blood in the streets... not over yet (my opinion)

Two reasons:-
1. His post contains inaccuracies:- 

  • it basically says "the market is low because there's been a change in sentiment" - this is a disingenuous statement.  First off, it's nothing but a guess.  But let's assume the guess is correct - correct for who? For a small contingency of retail speculators who are selling in recent weeks.  Meanwhile, we know institutions are buying over the counter and preparing crypto services in the new year for an even bigger number of institutional buyers.  For anyone following the NEWS of crypto, sentiment is actually bullish for the future. 
  • he says he expects some exchanges to go bust - in a time when Binance, Bittrex and Coinbase are all expanding their operations, and when Bakkt, Fidelity, NASDAQ, TD Ameritrade, ErisX are entering the market with trading and custodial platforms
  • he's talking about the crypto space in general - which we all know is full of nonsense whitepapers and where 95%+ of cryptos will eventually go to zero.  It's disingenuous to talk about the crypto market in general as if this applies exactly to XRP's chances of success.

2. He has a lot of previous - he posts here when the market is particularly low, and makes bearish-sentiment posts.  My main problem with this is he makes a "fear post" when prices dip low.  Ultimately, his posts are very unhelpful as they just take advantage of people's fear.  We will look back on these posts in the future and I am very sure I will be right, and @Spekul8 will be wrong and many will wish they bought at these lower prices. Of course, I COULD be wrong and I would be the first to admit it if XRP suffers some future calamity.

Edited by 2ndtimearound
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15 hours ago, 2ndtimearound said:

@Spekul8, you see only 10% of the picture and pretend that your view is 100% of what is happening.  Manipulation in preparation for insitutional investors (Bakkt, Fidelity, NASDAQ, TD Ameritrade, ErisX) coming soon (Jan 2019 onwards) is the biggest influence.  We already know that OTC accounts for around half of the total daily volume of crypto.  We also know how easy it is to buy OTC, then sell on exchange, causing a panic from retail traders, then buy back in lower than your last sell price OTC - easy.  You think institutions would enter in a bull run?

Next...for every seller, a buyer.  Who is buying now? Smart money.  You will say "but they don't know the bottom!" because you don't believe in DCA.  You know who's buying? Grayscale holds over 1% of Bitcoin's circulating supply now - newly purchased this year.  Yale are putting $400M into crypto.  Institutions are accumulating.  They're not interested in absolute bottom.  They average in like any sensible investor.  You know who's selling? Weak-handed retail speculators who either got in too late to the last bull run, over-extended themselves or just can't stomach a bear market - or a combination of all three. We are seeing a massive exchange of wealth from the impatient/dumb to the patient/smart.  The smart thing to do is to sell in a bull run, or when you feel it's exhausted.  I sold in late January, DCA'd my second position in throughout this year (still have 75% of my profits untouched) - I'm still buying these days because I know I will make another good profit next year at these kinds of prices.

Specifically about XRP, xRapid is live and Ripple are working on the liquidity problem (which was always a problem, they knew this for years).  R3 announced they will use XRP on Corda Settler.  Liquidity will take time to build up, but investors should already know to be patient and not obsess over price when the fundamentals will drive price in the longer run.  Today's price is irrelevant if you're only holding.  If you're buying, it's very relevant.

Then Bakkt, Fidelity, NASDAQ, TD Ameritrade, ErisX...all messed up.  They've spent millions developing trading and custodial platforms for assets that nobody will want in 2019.  I somehow trust they know what their customers want (have asked for) more than your opinion here.

Overall, your post is another hit piece on XRP when there's been a series of dips.  You didn't comment in September when it was 80c, or in May when it went back up close to $1.  Funny that.

Every time you see a post from me you get your balls in a knot. no need. 

NOT every seller has a buyer. This is because prices can drop or gap down on panic, bad news, desperation, etc.  If your neighbor decides that he must sell the house for 60% of its value, assuming you have a similar house, your house's value just dropped without a buyer.  Kapish? The same thing happens on the upside.

Exchnages work on the same premise as above, and although deep liquidity helps, prices do gap. 

Second, 50% of the market is OTC? No! 100% of the market is OTC. Just because they call themselves "exchange" it does not mean they have the same model as NYSE, NASDAQ or the CME. There is no central exchange for Bitcoin and even worse each exchange functions as its own market maker and custodian. 

Lastly, stop boasting that you made money in Jan. It became your signature every time you reply to me. You made a fraction of what the market moved. Don't confuse a genius with a bull market. BTW, I made more. 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, 2ndtimearound said:

Two reasons:-
1. His post contains inaccuracies:- 

  • it basically says "the market is low because there's been a change in sentiment" - this is a disingenuous statement.  First off, it's nothing but a guess.  But let's assume the guess is correct - correct for who? For a small contingency of retail speculators who are selling in recent weeks.  Meanwhile, we know institutions are buying over the counter and preparing crypto services in the new year for an even bigger number of institutional buyers.  For anyone following the NEWS of crypto, sentiment is actually bullish for the future. 
  • he says he expects some exchanges to go bust - in a time when Binance, Bittrex and Coinbase are all expanding their operations, and when Bakkt, Fidelity, NASDAQ, TD Ameritrade, ErisX are entering the market with trading and custodial platforms
  • he's talking about the crypto space in general - which we all know is full of nonsense whitepapers and where 95%+ of cryptos will eventually go to zero.  It's disingenuous to talk about the crypto market in general as if this applies exactly to XRP's chances of success.

2. He has a lot of previous - he posts here when the market is particularly low, and makes bearish-sentiment posts.  My main problem with this is he makes a "fear post" when prices dip low.  Ultimately, his posts are very unhelpful as they just take advantage of people's fear.  We will look back on these posts in the future and I am very sure I will be right, and @Spekul8 will be wrong and many will wish they bought at these lower prices. Of course, I COULD be wrong and I would be the first to admit it if XRP suffers some future calamity.

There are inaccuracies and different opinions which sadly you do not know how to distinguish or respect. Everything you said above is a reflection of your own psychology because you are ALL IN like a gambler. So every time there is a contrary opinion, you freak out with long rambles. Talking about inaccuracies...I replied to your first post on this thread.  

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13 hours ago, Mr_Cambridge said:

Thank you, @Spekul8

If exchanges are going to crumble, let's hope they are only the ones that aren't complying with KYC rules. 

As long as the ones that are remain active and allow for XRP liquidity, long-term we should be in the clear. 

Now we're seeing the purge or cleansing as some have called it. It's needed for the space to mature. I agree that no one knows the bottom. It's strap on tight from here on out until the market turns around, which could take years. Many won't like to hear that, but they should keep an open mind and not have expectations that lead to disappointment.

You welcome. I can not speculate who will crumble, and who will not, but I suspect its those who were not fiscally responsible, not necessarily KYC.  In the process of corrections, retails and institutional get hurt alike. There are miners that are going out of business, and established companies like Consys (Ethereum Based) who are Ethereum based just fired 13% of its staff. In the long run, this is good for this space.  This will bring order, and established companies that will make Crypto and Blockchain valuable. Your reference to maturity is spot on. 

Yes, this may take years.  Like I said a while back, we are getting into the "blue chip" era, less "pump and dump".  This means stability and no surges of 5,000% with correction approaching bottom.  Nevertheless, ONE announcement from SEC about an ETF will 300% this market in a minute. 

 

 

Edited by Spekul8
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3 hours ago, Spekul8 said:

NOT every seller has a buyer. This is because prices can drop or gap down on panic, bad news, desperation, etc.  If your neighbor decides that he must sell the house for 60% of its value, assuming you have a similar house, your house's value just dropped without a buyer.  Kapish? The same thing happens on the upside.

I meant in a literal sense with every sell order - someone (or multiple people) are buying that sell.  I obviously wasn't talking about market cap dropping which is what you're implying.  I also meant that institutions are buying particular assets OTC while prices are low. 

3 hours ago, Spekul8 said:

Second, 50% of the market is OTC? No! 100% of the market is OTC. Just because they call themselves "exchange" it does not mean they have the same model as NYSE, NASDAQ or the CME. There is no central exchange for Bitcoin and even worse each exchange functions as its own market maker and custodian.

This is a non sequitur response to my point.  You know what I meant - that there's an enormous amount of trading that occurs off-exchange that isn't measured. In fact, that volume may exceed on-exchange volume (which we CAN measure) by two to three times according to this article > https://www.ccn.com/otc-is-much-larger-than-bitcoin-exchange-volume-where-real-whales-trade/

My point (which I will repeat) is that there is a big demand for crypto at these low prices, but that demand isn't easily measured since much of the buying is OTC.  Again, you have to realise if a market can be manipulated, it will be manipulated.  We have to read between the lines and see what the big institutions are planning.  Of course retail traders sell when prices are low, and buy when prices are high - that's what they're good at. 

3 hours ago, Spekul8 said:

Lastly, stop boasting that you made money in Jan. It became your signature every time you reply to me. You made a fraction of what the market moved. Don't confuse a genius with a bull market. BTW, I made more. 

LOL - I just pointed out my strategy...I've never bothered to compare myself to others though.

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3 hours ago, Spekul8 said:

There are inaccuracies and different opinions which sadly you do not know how to distinguish or respect. Everything you said above is a reflection of your own psychology because you are ALL IN like a gambler. So every time there is a contrary opinion, you freak out with long rambles. Talking about inaccuracies...I replied to your first post on this thread.  

It's inaccurate to say exchanges will go bust ("The fear I have now is the collapse of exchanges") - when many new exchanges are joining the space early next year, and many current ones are expanding.  I'm not even saying every exchange will survive as obviously you have failures in every industry - it's just your implication (as always, you like to imply and insinuate) that the industry is on a systemic decline when clearly it is not.  

It's also ambiguous to talk about the crypto space in general (which has its weaknesses and plenty of scams) on an XRP forum, as if you're implying XRP is in the exact same boat as all cryptos.  XRP has been adopted by a number of companies this year (base currency, streamed value, cross-border settlement use cases) including R3.  You would call out someone who was peddling a known scam and equating that scam to XRP as if they're held in the same esteem.  Not all cryptos are equal.  Some have a much better reputation and potential than others.

 

Edited by 2ndtimearound
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The bueaty and complexity of the crypto space is that no one knows what's gonna happen. No benchmarks, no meaningful historical data to analyze, no real adoption happened so far.

Probably a handful of ppl have some influence on the crypto space: Winklevoss bros, CSW, Ver, Jed, Goldman Sachs, Grayscale, Jihan etc.

My take is:

- one never have to invest more than he/she can afford to lose.

- listen to what others say,  but DYOR and make your own inv. decisions.

- try to get back your initial fiat investment so that you feel more relaxed.

- try to have investment strategy and to actually follow it (that's the hardest part).

- try to learn from your wrong investment decisions but don't blame yourself. As W. Buffet says "In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield."

So anything can happen - XRP USD 100 until the year end? Yes, it's possible. XRP USD 0.1 until the year end? Yeeeap, that's possible too.

Several pumps and dumps until crypto adoption rules the world? Possible. Adoption only driven demand from now on (after cyrpto market cleans out itslef)? Possible as well.

So, try to find positive moments in this massacre, don't insult each other, it won't help but will make both of you stressed out.

Not trying to be a smartass, just thinking out loud and thanks for your thoughts guys!

 

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9 hours ago, Spekul8 said:

Every time you see a post from me you get your balls in a knot. no need. 

NOT every seller has a buyer. This is because prices can drop or gap down on panic, bad news, desperation, etc.  If your neighbor decides that he must sell the house for 60% of its value, assuming you have a similar house, your house's value just dropped without a buyer.  Kapish? The same thing happens on the upside.

Exchnages work on the same premise as above, and although deep liquidity helps, prices do gap. 

Second, 50% of the market is OTC? No! 100% of the market is OTC. Just because they call themselves "exchange" it does not mean they have the same model as NYSE, NASDAQ or the CME. There is no central exchange for Bitcoin and even worse each exchange functions as its own market maker and custodian. 

Lastly, stop boasting that you made money in Jan. It became your signature every time you reply to me. You made a fraction of what the market moved. Don't confuse a genius with a bull market. BTW, I made more. 

 

 

 

There are some on this board that always brag about how they timed the market perfectly. The reality is that you could've picked a coin at random and made a killing in 2017. 

But luck is luck and those who are truly smart know when to keep their mouth shut. 

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If even the former positive forum members are starting to get negative, fight eachother and even some predicting doomsday it's just telling me we're currently on the right track for a final short squeeze and reversal.

After that, please try to pay attention how many/few hours it takes before the forum and other communities are all euphoria again and all is forgiven and forgotten.

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