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Spekul8

What are we seeing, why and what to do.

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The recent price decline is a big disappointment to many. If some of you gave up or lost interest, I do not blame you.  A few months back I wrote that we are going to experience a serious decline, and here we are now. You may ask why is this happening and whether we could see new highs in the future.  Anything can happen, but I have learned to use the odds and I do not see the Crypto space growing exponentially. 

So first, why is the decline? There are two answers. One is the ability of the market to question the "super enthusiastic" who are now scratching their head and ask "why me?" Slowly and surely they are selling one by one. Not blaming them, accusing them or judging them.   The market has the ability to attract the weak hands with FOMO (fear of missing out) when prices are going through the roof, and spit them out or just leave them broke with a flat line. So the market is still cleaning them out and there are millions of users worldwide.  

The second is the change in psychology and phase. The psychology moved from "the world must run on Blockchain/crypto" to "we are in the .01% phase". This means that the foundation is being built, but the revenue model is vague at best. How do you evaluate the value of crypto besides speculation? There are no models and the models that do exist are speculative. 

The third reason is the new blockchain companies who created their own ICO and raised money with ETH/BTC need to sell it all to keep their doors open.  Back to school boys. Get your BA/MBA.  

The fear I have now is the collapse of exchnages.  Not too many are buying, selling, or trading at these prices. These institutions are fully staffed, have a high cost of operation and need millions per month to keep the lights on. All we need is just one big news event and the market will collapse further.  I hope that does not happen, but its inevitable in this environment. 

 

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9 minutes ago, Spekul8 said:

The recent price decline is a big disappointment to many. If some of you gave up or lost interest, I do not blame you.  A few months back I wrote that we are going to experience a serious decline, and here we are now. You may ask why is this happening and whether we could see new highs in the future.  Anything can happen, but I have learned to use the odds and I do not see the Crypto space growing exponentially. 

So first, why is the decline? There are two answers. One is the ability of the market to question the "super enthusiastic" who are now scratching their head and ask "why me?" Slowly and surely they are selling one by one. Not blaming them, accusing them or judging them.   The market has the ability to attract the weak hands with FOMO (fear of missing out) when prices are going through the roof, and spit them out or just leave them broke with a flat line. So the market is still cleaning them out and there are millions of users worldwide.  

The second is the change in psychology and phase. The psychology moved from "the world must run on Blockchain/crypto" to "we are in the .01% phase". This means that the foundation is being built, but the revenue model is vague at best. How do you evaluate the value of crypto besides speculation? There are no models and the models that do exist are speculative. 

The third reason is the new blockchain companies who created their own ICO and raised money with ETH/BTC need to sell it all to keep their doors open.  Back to school boys. Get your BA/MBA.  

The fear I have now is the collapse of exchnages.  Not too many are buying, selling, or trading at these prices. These institutions are fully staffed, have a high cost of operation and need millions per month to keep the lights on. All we need is just one big news event and the market will collapse further.  I hope that does not happen, but its inevitable in this environment. 

 

Don't worry about the exchanges. They love volatility. They make money on a commission, so they win when prices go down just like when they go up. For every seller there is a buyer. That's how exchanges work. If someone wants to sell and there's no buyer, they just lower the prices until there is. 

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2 minutes ago, xrp_sea said:

Don't worry about the exchanges. They love volatility. They make money on a commission, so they win when prices go down just like when they go up. For every seller there is a buyer. That's how exchanges work. If someone wants to sell and there's no buyer, they just lower the prices until there is. 

Where is the volatility? It's a straight down arrow. 

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4 hours ago, Spekul8 said:

The recent price decline is a big disappointment to many. If some of you gave up or lost interest, I do not blame you.  A few months back I wrote that we are going to experience a serious decline, and here we are now. You may ask why is this happening and whether we could see new highs in the future.  Anything can happen, but I have learned to use the odds and I do not see the Crypto space growing exponentially. 

So first, why is the decline? There are two answers. One is the ability of the market to question the "super enthusiastic" who are now scratching their head and ask "why me?" Slowly and surely they are selling one by one. Not blaming them, accusing them or judging them.   The market has the ability to attract the weak hands with FOMO (fear of missing out) when prices are going through the roof, and spit them out or just leave them broke with a flat line. So the market is still cleaning them out and there are millions of users worldwide.  

The second is the change in psychology and phase. The psychology moved from "the world must run on Blockchain/crypto" to "we are in the .01% phase". This means that the foundation is being built, but the revenue model is vague at best. How do you evaluate the value of crypto besides speculation? There are no models and the models that do exist are speculative. 

The third reason is the new blockchain companies who created their own ICO and raised money with ETH/BTC need to sell it all to keep their doors open.  Back to school boys. Get your BA/MBA.  

The fear I have now is the collapse of exchnages.  Not too many are buying, selling, or trading at these prices. These institutions are fully staffed, have a high cost of operation and need millions per month to keep the lights on. All we need is just one big news event and the market will collapse further.  I hope that does not happen, but its inevitable in this environment. 

 

Yes this and there is also manipulation going on

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I think this year we can forget it with crypto . I the next days and week all crypto falllin again. To many experts say on end 2018 btc on 50 k and 30k nothing is happen. I think cap goes under 80 billion and btc on line 2k and xrp back to 10 or 15 cent again . No more hope for this year. All the etf nothing coming maybe Q2 next year 2019. So we have to bloody more 60 days 😩😩😩

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We are in no worse condition than last year at this time.  This is when to be patient.  No one said it would be 'nothing but fun'.  The crypto space is about to see an exponential level of growth moving forward.  Trust the hedge fund managers not me.  Trust the new crypto exchanges created by the wealthy of the world, not me.  Read about their money being put into the space. 

That doesn't mean it's not a highly speculative highly manipularted market at the moment though. It is.  

Yet no one can predict what next week/month/year will look like.  No oracles in the crypto space, period.    We are at or nearing a bottom (this is not prediction there's just not that much left to go at .30 cents usd). Markets go up and down. It has gone down and is going down.  After this it goes up.  When?  I don't know. This is what markets, manipulated as they are, do all the time...up and down, up and down. 

If one is in that market one has to accept its behavior as well.  Again, that doesn't mean it's fun.  Right now this is no fun at all. 

Holding...

Edited by xrphilosophy

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45 minutes ago, 2ndtimearound said:

@Spekul8, you see only 10% of the picture and pretend that your view is 100% of what is happening.  Manipulation in preparation for insitutional investors (Bakkt, Fidelity, NSADAQ, TD Ameritrade, ErisX) coming soon (Jan 2019 onwards) is the biggest influence.  We already know that OTC accounts for around half of the total daily volume of crypto.  We also know how easy it is to buy OTC, then sell on exchange, causing a panic from retail traders, then buy back in lower than your last sell price OTC - easy.  You think institutions would enter in a bull run?

Next...for every seller, a buyer.  Who is buying now? Smart money.  You will say "but they don't know the bottom!" because you don't believe in DCA.  You know who's buying? Grayscale holds over 1% of Bitcoin's circulating supply now - newly purchased this year.  Yale are putting $400M into crypto.  Institutions are accumulating.  They're not interested in absolute bottom.  They average in like any sensible investor.  You know who's selling? Weak-handed retail speculators who either got in too late to the last bull run, over-extended themselves or just can't stomach a bear market - or a combination of all three. We are seeing a massive exchange of wealth from the impatient/dumb to the patient/smart.  The smart thing to do is to sell in a bull run, or when you feel it's exhausted.  I sold in late January, DCA'd my second position in throughout this year (still have 75% of my profits untouched) - I'm still buying these days because I know I will make another good profit next year at these kinds of prices.

Specifically about XRP, xRapid is live and Ripple are working on the liquidity problem (which was always a problem, they knew this for years).  R3 announced they will use XRP on Corda Settler.  Liquidity will take time to build up, but investors should already know to be patient and not obsess over price when the fundamentals will drive price in the longer run.  Today's price is irrelevant if you're only holding.  If you're buying, it's very relevant.

Then Bakkt, Fidelity, NSADAQ, TD Ameritrade, ErisX...all messed up.  They've spent millions developing trading and custodial platforms for assets that nobody will want in 2019.  I somehow trust they know what their customers want (have asked for) more than your opinion here.

Overall, your post is another hit piece on XRP when there's been a series of dips.  You didn't comment in September when it was 80c, or in May when it went back up close to $1.  Funny that.

TBH: Why do you attack him?
He talked about the market in general and not about XRP.

He is right in large parts and I also expect a total collapse on some coins: NEO, EOS,... BTC will drop well below 3k EOY (maybe it will reach 1.600 in Q1-2019)... we will see more panic lows.... more blood in the streets... not over yet (my opinion)

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6 hours ago, Dumpster-Fire-Greg said:

Same time last year vs current (current is red and green). The price range is different but we had almost the exact same style of drop and within 1% of each other (23% from top to bottom during the dates).  Obviously not saying that will continue but it's interesting to look at, a whole year apart and yet it's almost 1:1 in the drop % and exact days (and almost hours) that the price moves.

chart.jpg

Please send a link to this chart thanks

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7 hours ago, Dumpster-Fire-Greg said:

Same time last year vs current (current is red and green). The price range is different but we had almost the exact same style of drop and within 1% of each other (23% from top to bottom during the dates).  Obviously not saying that will continue but it's interesting to look at, a whole year apart and yet it's almost 1:1 in the drop % and exact days (and almost hours) that the price moves.

chart.jpg

so... you are telling us... you mean...

 

may I pronounce that aloud?

 

 

 

 

Okay, I'll ask it :

You try to tell us tha ...  that... that we could expect 589 EOY?

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Good analysis @Spekul8, thank you.  Pixie dust is wearing off, and in doing so is revealing that most of the cryptostartups were high on hopium and short on business sense (as is frequently the case with startups in any booming economy).

This is also why I believe that Ripple will prevail in the long run.  Business plan and execution may not be fashionable, but they do go a long way in times like these.  As it is frequently said, fail to prepare = prepare to fail.  

Ripple seems prepared to me. 

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Absolute carnage - who knows - Bitcoin cash SV is up though.  Can't be Craig Wright selling all his bitcoin to boost the price of SV can it?  He said Bitcoin $1,000 meant nothing to him and he might just be making it happen and taking the rest of the cryto market with him.  All I know is I will never own, buy or use bticoin cash SV.  

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