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Bitcoin Actual Market Value 22-44 Billion USD - Published March 16, 2018

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https://arxiv.org/pdf/1803.05663.pdf

Published March 16, 2018

Quote

Focusing on the outlook for bitcoin, the active user data indicates a shrinking growth rate, which a range of parameterizations of our generalized Metcalfe’s law translates into slowing growth in market capitalization.  Further, our Metcalfe-based analysis indicates current support levels for the bitcoin market in the range of 22–44 billion USD, at least four times less than the current level. On this basis alone, the current market resembles that of early 2014, which was followed by a year of sideways and downward movement. Given the high correlation of cryptocurrencies, the short-term movements of other cryptocurrencies are likely to be affected by corrections in bitcoin (and vice-versa), regardless of their own relative valuations.

Kinda shocked they were able to predict this in March and looks like we are heading in that direction.  I wonder if this will cause XRP to go to no 1 especially since there is a lot of talk of xRapid being used by banks.  If no real usage, I guess we are going to get dragged down with BTC. 

So do you guys/gals think BTC is going down to $1300-$2600? If yes, will it drag down XRP?

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26 minutes ago, kickstart said:

So do you guys/gals think BTC is going down to $1300-$2600?

Maybe.  I remember reading one of those articles where they ask large market players for their opinion on future BTC price action, and quite a few of the participants were saying that BTC needed to drop to 4k range first.  This makes me think that there could be some buyer interest in BTC coming up in the near future (3k range maybe) which could easily slow down price decline or potentially cause a reversal.

34 minutes ago, kickstart said:

If yes, will it drag down XRP?

Yes.

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23 hours ago, automatic said:

BTC needed to drop to 4k range first.  This makes me think that there could be some buyer interest in BTC coming up in the near future (3k range maybe) which could easily slow down price decline or potentially cause a reversal.

I see $3600 already on Gemini. According to the research, range is $1300-$2600.  Let's see what happens. 

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On 11/24/2018 at 5:39 AM, kickstart said:

Kinda shocked they were able to predict this in March and looks like we are heading in that direction.  

Buckle up, you are for a ride. At this point I wouldn't rule out bitcoin going sub 1kEUR on its way to 0EUR.

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1 hour ago, gxVg826hmf8 said:

Buckle up, you are for a ride. At this point I wouldn't rule out bitcoin going sub 1kEUR on its way to 0EUR.

I tend to agree that BTC will die off.

1) Highly centralised in a Chinese mining cartel

2) Massive transactional backlog

3) Clearly got very overhyped

4) Current mix of competition and difficulty make mining a loss making activity. In fact most miners lose at $4k all will shut off BTC at $3k, and.....

5) Most miners can reprofile their ASICs to mine more profitable coins instead of BTC

6) Plenty of premined and PoS coins to choose instead of PoW ones. Obviously XRP as a pre-mine, but also ones that communities can run easily on masternodes like XBI that do everything BTC does, but are are around 1/12,000 the of the price.

 

Edited by Mikhail_Liebenstein

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