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TokenBaby

The Great Market Capitalization Hoax

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7 minutes ago, Hodlezerper said:

"Circulating supply" is nearly impossible to measure, though. You're trying to measure possible intent, rather than what actually exists. Even the escrow should be taken into account when people are considering purchasing XRP as they ARE and WILL be in play, as opposed to suggesting that they may or may not be based on terms you're unaware of. What about un-escrowed XRP that's effectively lost due to secret key being lost? We can't really account for that? 

I think it's more consistent, although imperfect, to consider the total supply 

You got me thinking that it could be a good idea to have two columns

Estimated Circulating Supply... for traders and short term investors since we only care of what's available today to see how volatile the market can be...

Total Supply (including once the mining cycle is complete)...for long term investors looking at the "big picture"...

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1 minute ago, Malloy said:

You got me thinking that it could be a good idea to have two columns

Estimated Circulating Supply... for traders and short term investors since we only care of what's available today to see how volatile the market can be...

Total Supply (including once the mining cycle is complete)...for long term investors looking at the "big picture"...

I like it.

I do think the market cap should be represented as a multiple of all coins. Of course, measuring liqudiity might be a more effective measure than simply multiplying current price by outstanding units, but...whatever?

lol

 

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From an objective, rational, point of view you are correct, but unfortunately optics play a huge role in public perception so the milestone of hitting #2 on a big tracker has an effect just like hitting $0.25 or $1 or €1.

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2 hours ago, TokenBaby said:

The whole "XRP passed ETH and is now #2" is getting annoying. It shows how immature and uninformed many in the "crypto news" space are.

At what magnitude of years is an escrow excluded from market cap in your opinion? 1 year, 1.000 years or 1.000.000? You answer is none of them and that is obviously not correct. To exclude escrow makes different sense in different cases.

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41 minutes ago, Hodlezerper said:

What about un-escrowed XRP that's effectively lost due to secret key being lost? We can't really account for that? 

That should be a simple fix in future versions of the ledger. There could be a function, if one doesn't already exist, to find or parse wallets that have not be active in X days/months/years. If you can do this in a simple MS Excess database, sure it can be a function within Ripple's DLT. 

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Today, the total cryptocurrency market cap amount is c.a 166,000 million $ [source coinmarketcap.com]. If only XRP existed it would mean that the new XRP price would have been c.a 4,1 $ in case you consider the whole circulating supply, 1,6$ in case you consider the total XRP’s volume. At these prices only few XPR holders [<<1% of total accounts : source XRP Stats https://ledger.exposed/rich-stats] can be considered millionaires.
Conclusion: to go to the moon we need fresh investing capitals at least 10 times more than the current total market capitalization.
Action: Buy & hodl & ….wait.


 

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1 hour ago, Malloy said:

You got me thinking that it could be a good idea to have two columns

Estimated Circulating Supply... for traders and short term investors since we only care of what's available today to see how volatile the market can be...

Total Supply (including once the mining cycle is complete)...for long term investors looking at the "big picture"...

Use https://messari.io/onchainfx

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2 hours ago, TokenBaby said:

Mining and "pre-mine" are different. I'd agree that for all "pre-mined" assets it would make sense.

Nonetheless, https://xrpcharts.ripple.com has it right.

I tend to agree that volume often is a a better metric of the size of a market, than market cap is.

However pre-mined vs mined is only a implementation detail. It doesn't matter when the coins are mined. Its only when (or in anticipation) of the coins reaching the open market that it affect the price. After all, its the willing buyers and sellers on the open market at any one time, that set the market price.

Think of it this way. The fed prints dollars. It could print a dollar every time it needs a one. Or it could pre-print many decades worth in one go, but release them one at a time as needed. Its only the logistics that are different, but the effects on market price is the same.

Premined vs mined cryptocins can be seen much the same. 

 

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42 minutes ago, petke9 said:

I tend to agree that volume often is a a better metric of the size of a market, than market cap is.

However pre-mined vs mined is only a implementation detail. It doesn't matter when the coins are mined. Its only when (or in anticipation) of the coins reaching the open market that it affect the price. After all, its the willing buyers and sellers on the open market at any one time, that set the market price.

Think of it this way. The fed prints dollars. It could print a dollar every time it needs a one. Or it could pre-print many decades worth in one go, but release them one at a time as needed. Its only the logistics that are different, but the effects on market price is the same.

Premined vs mined cryptocins can be seen much the same. 

 

What you're saying is that the XRP in escrow has $0 value.

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I'm pretty sure the market will set XRP pricing based on Available Supply. That is, the number of XRP, not in escrow, not in HODLer's wallets, but what exchanges, and correspondent banks hold for transfer purposes, can use to provide liquidity for the number and size of transactions required to support an ever increasing payment volume.

Yes, the amount in escrow counts. Yes the amount held by HOLDer's counts. Both reduce the Available Supply. Escrow releases and bank holdings are essentially vostro accounts in XRP's case to fund transfers to other currencies, increasing the Available Supply. IMHO

Edited by n2it

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BTW, I have a real problem with calling XRP "pre-mined". "Pre-mined" is simply a construct to cast XRP's existence in the context of mined currencies. Problem is, there's no mining at all for XRP, so calling it pre-mined is like saying "bald" is a hair color. I'm amazed that a lot of people can't understand this.

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32 minutes ago, n2it said:

BTW, I have a real problem with calling XRP "pre-mined". "Pre-mined" is simply a construct to cast XRP's existence in the context of mined currencies. Problem is, there's no mining at all for XRP, so calling it pre-mined is like saying "bald" is a hair color. I'm amazed that a lot of people can't understand this.

Bless your rhetoric-busting, terminology-defending soul.

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