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Analysis of Ripple's XRP sales


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2 hours ago, rippleHero said:

Hello, and thank you for the post @jbjnr, very insightful.

Quick question. When I look at some of the distributions by these addresses you specify, I only see a one sided payment. I understand that the opposite side of the transaction, (the one who is receiving the XRP) would have to pay in some currency. But the issue is they do not. It is just a payment and not an exchange. 

Is this correct? Or does the receiving address pay the cost of the XRP to another address? If so, could you provide an example?

The payments from ripple wallets examined in this thread were mostly sent to exchanges where they are sold for $$$. The funds are sometimes sent back in the form of USD.bitstamp on the ledger, but mostly we lose track of them as they will go via the traditional banking system back to someone's account.

Please note that some updated figures were included in a later thread - and there might be a another, but I don't fully remember. I will of course do a prediction of Q1 2019 soon.

 

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I would like to present here my findings on a slightly more detailed examination of sales from the ripple XRP-II wallet (rHjJwY4maqRyUxCnJ9bNNQ2Tva9fe9T8ud) and also the 3 wallets rHjJwY4maqRyUxCnJ9bN

I've just noticed a mistake in a couple of my text outputs. I have listed the $dollar amount of sales in the tables, but the total column shows the XRP total not the $total. I do wish I could sto

As noted in my OP, they are selling 3% of the total volume each day as reported by cryprocompare, but we don't know where they get their values of "daily volume" from. So it may be that they are takin

19 minutes ago, jbjnr said:

The payments from ripple wallets examined in this thread were mostly sent to exchanges where they are sold for $$$. The funds are sometimes sent back in the form of USD.bitstamp on the ledger, but mostly we lose track of them as they will go via the traditional banking system back to someone's account.

Please note that some updated figures were included in a later thread - and there might be a another, but I don't fully remember. I will of course do a prediction of Q1 2019 soon.

 

I understand, but when Ripple says that they sold $XXX.XX million worth of XRP (In their quarter reports), how are they getting these $? From the payments associated with the addresses you posted, it seems like Ripple is just giving XRP away for nothing. How does Ripple receive $? (Or other currency in exchange for XRP). Let me know if this makes sense. And thanks.

Edited by rippleHero
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10 minutes ago, bloodhound said:

Brad gets on an airplane with his empty briefcase and picks up the $ from the buyer.

I am talking about through a transaction on the Ripple Ledger. Or other blockchains. I want to know if we can see the returning $ or other currency from the exchanges that buy this XRP. Because as I have said, the payments in which this XRP is distributed only have the XRP. I am wondering if we can see the returning $ from the exchange to a Ripple Address. There is no way Ripple just sends 10 million XRP or whatever amount to an exchange and receive nothing in return.

Great contribution to convo though!

Edited by rippleHero
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1 hour ago, EasterBunny said:

For the OTC sales, Ripple probably receives payment via tradional banks. 

So would you say that the payments that Ripple receives for the sales of XRP is private? Thus, we would not be able to see it on a public blockchain? (They could be paid in a different currency).

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10 minutes ago, rippleHero said:

So would you say that the payments that Ripple receives for the sales of XRP is private? 

Yes.   The OTC sales are fiat to xrp.  So the fiat side is in traditional banks.  The XRP move to the recipient wallet is the other side of the payment.

The programmatic sales are on an exchange and again are therefore not visible on ledger.

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On ‎3‎/‎16‎/‎2019 at 7:14 PM, Tinyaccount said:

The programmatic sales are on an exchange and again are therefore not visible on ledger.

Not sure what you mean here. You mean the programmatic sales are executed by an exchange?

Edited by rippleHero
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No need to apologise.  All questions are welcome.

I’d love to just point you to a definitive resource that outlines all this but I’m not sure where that is...  a pretty good start is:

https://fudbingo.com

But that’s for specific stuff and I don’t know if it answers this question.

So the short answer is this...  (based on my understanding...  I could be wrong)

Ripple have engaged a third party firm that specialises in markets to sell XRP programmatically.  They are instructed to not sell more than a very small percentage of daily volume.  Around 1.5% or so I think.  Not to sell if the market is skittish.  They are specifically instructed to do all possible to NOT affect price.

So they supply XRP to the firm and the firms sells on an exchange (Bitstamp?   Not sure) on the open market with a bot.

Any sales Ripple make to an exchange itself are OTC sales and presumably bought by the exchange since they think there will be demand that they can meet themselves and thereby profit.

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3 minutes ago, Tinyaccount said:

So they supply XRP to the firm and the firms sells on an exchange (Bitstamp?   Not sure) on the open market with a bot.

So this sale to the third party will appear on the Ripple Ledger I assume?

3 minutes ago, Tinyaccount said:

Any sales Ripple make to an exchange itself are OTC sales and presumably bought by the exchange since they think there will be demand that they can meet themselves and thereby profit.

And in this case you will see the payment on the Ripple Ledger, but as you say above, the other side of the trade, from the exchange to Ripple will be private, correct?

 

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1 hour ago, rippleHero said:

So this sale to the third party will appear on the Ripple Ledger I assume?

I’m not sure if it is a sale...  they have engaged a firm to sell for them...  the details of how the xrp get to the exchange are not clear...  at least to me.  Maybe it’s a sale.  Maybe it’s a XRPLedger move to a tag in the exchange for the form to then utilise.  Dunno.  But yeah at the very least there must be one movement from Ripple to either some other wallet or to an exchange wallet.

Now switching to talking about an OTC purchase of xrp by an exchange....

1 hour ago, rippleHero said:

And in this case you will see the payment on the Ripple Ledger, but as you say above, the other side of the trade, from the exchange to Ripple will be private, correct?

The payment for the xrp (in fiat) will go to Ripple.  Just like any other OTC customer...    None of that fiat move is visible.  The payment/movement of xrp will be on ledger from a Ripple wallet to another wallet.  (It likely will not be the general pooled hot wallet that the exchange has.)

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On 3/17/2019 at 1:30 AM, Tinyaccount said:

 

They are instructed to not sell more than a very small percentage of daily volume.  Around 1.5% or so I think.

I would really like to know how this relates to the recent Bitwise study, where they found that 95% of volume on btc exchanges is fake. Does it imply fake xrp volume? If yes, does the programmatic selling strategy consider data from "evil exchanges" where volume is usually overstated by magnitudes?

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2 minutes ago, mararn1618 said:

I would really like to know how this relates to the recent Bitwise study, where they found that 95% of volume on btc exchanges is fake. Does it imply fake xrp volume? If yes, does the programmatic selling strategy consider data from "evil exchanges" where volume is usually overstated by magnitudes?

I’m not sure...  but it was my impression that the volume involved was the volume of the exchange used...  (I think Bitstamp).

If that’s correct then fake is not an issue because Bitstamp is widely considered as solid.

I did just read that Bob Way has never heard this raised as an issue by the folk he knows...  which implies Ripple are not concerned about it,  which implies that the volume figure used is NOT a fake one.

Sorry that I can’t be sure about this...  but it’s not something that bothers me because people I trust like Bob are not bothered about it.

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The recent news article about 95% of the volume being fake/inflated seems to be very deceptive...

The article and the subsequent conversation around this does not account for market maker accounts that exchanges manage. I've read that the Dow similarly has market maker accounts that cover 85% of the volume.

Perhaps it's not as simple as calling the accounts market makers, either... and it's a wider range of services and functions?

Just saying, that factoid is super misrepresentative of the health of the cryptocurrency market. This moment in history represents one of the last periods of times in which crypto will be considered the "Wild Wild West". Assuming we'll receive clarification at the end of May, this is a great time to spread some FUD to lower prices as much as possible for those entering the space now.

*Edit: Remember, the accumulation phase which precedes a bull market is composed of discouraged and distressed sellers. The public needs to be completely disgusted with the market, before positive sentiments can return and help rally. (Dow Theory)

Edited by xrpzilla
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16 hours ago, xrpzilla said:

The recent news article about 95% of the volume being fake/inflated seems to be very deceptive...

The article and the subsequent conversation around this does not account for market maker accounts that exchanges manage. I've read that the Dow similarly has market maker accounts that cover 85% of the volume.

Perhaps it's not as simple as calling the accounts market makers, either... and it's a wider range of services and functions?

Just saying, that factoid is super misrepresentative of the health of the cryptocurrency market. This moment in history represents one of the last periods of times in which crypto will be considered the "Wild Wild West". Assuming we'll receive clarification at the end of May, this is a great time to spread some FUD to lower prices as much as possible for those entering the space now.

*Edit: Remember, the accumulation phase which precedes a bull market is composed of discouraged and distressed sellers. The public needs to be completely disgusted with the market, before positive sentiments can return and help rally. (Dow Theory)

End of may? What type of clarification? Do I miss some information?

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