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Analysis of Ripple's XRP sales


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10 hours ago, jbjnr said:

The wallet that makes most of the daily payments is this one https://bithomp.com/explorer/r49yezViZ8N6FtwwKg9byDYtJ3UDuJi1zv

So far no obvious pauses, but volume is down.

Is that Ripple's dumping wallet? Is it me but it seems to be dumping much more than a small percentage of the volume or they usually dump this much daily?

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I would like to present here my findings on a slightly more detailed examination of sales from the ripple XRP-II wallet (rHjJwY4maqRyUxCnJ9bNNQ2Tva9fe9T8ud) and also the 3 wallets rHjJwY4maqRyUxCnJ9bN

I've just noticed a mistake in a couple of my text outputs. I have listed the $dollar amount of sales in the tables, but the total column shows the XRP total not the $total. I do wish I could sto

As noted in my OP, they are selling 3% of the total volume each day as reported by cryprocompare, but we don't know where they get their values of "daily volume" from. So it may be that they are takin

4 hours ago, iLeeT said:

Is that Ripple's dumping wallet? Is it me but it seems to be dumping much more than a small percentage of the volume or they usually dump this much daily?

There's volume in the market now due to volatility, have a look at the initial post by jbjnr on the percentages and daily volumes, I think it's keeping the same pace as usual.

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13 hours ago, jbjnr said:

If I do a correlation of volume (cryptocompare.com) with ripple sales from RP2 wallet - but restrict myself to the last 2 weeks (from 11/11/2018), I get

Cross correlation peak shift(days)=1, scale=34.10, Pearson coeff=0.93

so a quite strong correlation, still around 3% (2.93%), so nothing has changed as far as I can see. I would imagine that if the BTC crash continues, we may get to test my hypothesis that ripple will halt sales around the $0.25 mark. Only time will tell.

(If I were them I'd be halting sales right away to give xrp a bit of a boost and hasten the decoupling, but there's a good reason why I am limited to writing rubbish like this on internet forums and they are trying to put a dent in the universe!)

Thanks for this. Do you know if Ripple sales are affected by wash trading volume? For example, in Q3 due to low volume most of the time around 30-40% of the volume was coming from ZB exchange which is known to be wash trading, probably around 80-90% of its volume is just wash trading. If Ripple relies purely on daily volume then it means in theory they are selling around 3%, but in practice it's a lot more?

Also, do you have any data if Ripple stopped selling during December-January bull run last year? Thanks.

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5 hours ago, jbjnr said:

As noted in my OP, they are selling 3% of the total volume each day as reported by cryprocompare, but we don't know where they get their values of "daily volume" from. So it may be that they are taking volume readings from N exchanges, but not including a few that they consider to be suspect, or maybe they include them all.

...

Thanks for the info :) 

I did a quick search for one particular date (no idea if my quick math checks out as I'm a bit busy at the moment), basically what I did was to check the volume for 18th Oct, around 20% (or more) is wash trading, majority from ZB.COM exchange, then got a rough number of the sale volume, went to bithomp to check the 3 Ripple wallets - they seem to have dumped around 5M+ XRP which definitely less than 3% so my best guess is they've got a list of known exchanges and use this in their calculation (perhaps, exchanges listed on their website).

Not entirely sure if that's actually the case, need to have a look at more data when I've got the time. 

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18 minutes ago, iLeeT said:

Thanks for the info :) 

I did a quick search for one particular date (no idea if my quick math checks out as I'm a bit busy at the moment), basically what I did was to check the volume for 18th Oct, around 20% (or more) is wash trading, majority from ZB.COM exchange, then got a rough number of the sale volume, went to bithomp to check the 3 Ripple wallets - they seem to have dumped around 5M+ XRP which definitely less than 3% so my best guess is they've got a list of known exchanges and use this in their calculation (perhaps, exchanges listed on their website).

Not entirely sure if that's actually the case, need to have a look at more data when I've got the time. 

It would make sense if they sold the same percentage of each exchange volume so I would look at the reported daily volume at the exchanges where the transfers are to.

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33 minutes ago, xp3215233 said:

It would make sense if they sold the same percentage of each exchange volume so I would look at the reported daily volume at the exchanges where the transfers are to.

Very good idea. I don't want to have to query every exchange - especially since I have wallets with tagged transfers and I have no idea what they are - exchange or not. However, it would be a good test to pick a few, check the volume history and correlate with the payments just to see if that's what's going on. I'll think about this. If the volume data-by-exchange is available anywhere, please let me know.

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12 hours ago, iLeeT said:

Thanks for this. Do you know if Ripple sales are affected by wash trading volume? For example, in Q3 due to low volume most of the time around 30-40% of the volume was coming from ZB exchange which is known to be wash trading, probably around 80-90% of its volume is just wash trading. If Ripple relies purely on daily volume then it means in theory they are selling around 3%, but in practice it's a lot more?

Interesting, I hadn't thought of this - that maybe part of the wash-trading strategy is to goose more XRP sales, providing more supply to the market in order to push prices lower. I couldn't make any sense of the whole wash-sale gambit, this may be a factor...

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Hi. Since Ripple has been relatively quiet regarding to what is going on with their customer side we can monitor the XRP transfers. Here are nine Ripple related accounts that might provide insight what is going on behind the scenes. SamIam also left notes to some of these accounts by utilizing xrptipbot.com in order to help recognize their purpose. Thanks for the research Sam!

1. This is Bitstamp feeding account. By monitoring this account we can draw some conclusions what will be the XRP demand of Bitstamp in future.

https://bithomp.com/explorer/rNuF65SoNFRgi7KomddPeSpLhdB2Y7RnsN

2. This is definitely Ripple's XRP distribution account. It provisions XRPs to the 1. account, 3. account and 4. account.

https://bithomp.com/explorer/rMQ98K56yXJbDGv49ZSmW51sLn94Xe1mu1

3. This is interesting account because we do not know what is its purpose (?) 760 million XRPs are sitting there today and latest movement happened at November 16th 2018.

https://bithomp.com/explorer/rhyp1uMC9Xyj3Px8amUH3xVv6tbjYJkojs

4. This account got credited 200M XRPs by 2. account at November 16th. After that they created revolving escrow on the same day that will provision 5M XRPs for every two weeks during the next 20 weeks. At least the very first 5M XRP batch was sent to the account 5. at December 1st 2018.

https://bithomp.com/explorer/rNfwFmsgBRrtqQDcWtFAJMzK2P1yCs7XPy

5. This is likely another Ripple's XRP distribution account. So far it has been crediting Bitstamp and 6. account only.

https://bithomp.com/explorer/ra3NQBSJs7j5SQq1ems2NC3fvSkYHJW2VU

6. This account has been activated and regularly fed by 5. account. This 6. account has some sort of ties with Coil (7. account) which it did credit November 27th 2018. This account has also ties with Bitstamp and 8. account.

https://bithomp.com/explorer/rHVrdBcSU3Rdj4j2RfspN6mLxUu86p5fC1

7. This must be Coil related account. it is earmarked to Adrian Hope-Bailie and this account contains thousands payment channel transactions.

https://bithomp.com/explorer/rJNa71cLCjzQG68oNjh4fCUqCZSGNkWDrM

8. This is some kind of institutional crypto exchange because their XRP transfers are often larger than most consumers can afford and also they don't transact every day. This account has been fed by 9. account regularly.

https://bithomp.com/explorer/rpDcoYAVfkxUpKsHQ96LtTRYRi8L3aWndK

9. This account has been fed by the known XRP II (r9B3osCvQ28Chgv1qKDqwcGkQaDZJf4iqB) account.

https://bithomp.com/explorer/rhxUDNDRtP99386uDC2Y5T89Nvz7dx6SfJ

Edited by hallwaymonitor
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As fun as it is to do some manual digging with Bithomp the reality is that the BigQuery is way better approach to monitor XRP flows between numerous wallets of Ripple.

Here is the GitHub to the BigQuery:

https://github.com/WietseWind/fetch-xrpl-transactions

In below is one demonstration what can be done with the BigQuery. I wish I had the technical skills to do this by myself... :( 

 

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Hello, and thank you for the post @jbjnr, very insightful.

Quick question. When I look at some of the distributions by these addresses you specify, I only see a one sided payment. I understand that the opposite side of the transaction, (the one who is receiving the XRP) would have to pay in some currency. But the issue is they do not. It is just a payment and not an exchange. 

Is this correct? Or does the receiving address pay the cost of the XRP to another address? If so, could you provide an example?

Edited by rippleHero
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