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jbjnr

Analysis of Ripple's XRP sales

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2 hours ago, jbjnr2 said:

I would like to know the answer to this too.

  • Software glitch at Ripple takes their bot scripts down for a week. I just don't believe it. Take them down for a day, a couple of days over the weekend. Could happen. A week? Unless everyone was preparing for swell and they just didn't have time to fix it, this doesn't seem plausible.
  • Exchange API fail causing software glitch at ripple. Same thing. Not for a week, it'd be too easy to comment out one exchange for payments, unless the API where they fetch the vokume data from was the culprit. Ripple used to provide that data themselves, but it was removed https://github.com/ripple/ripplecharts-frontend/commit/e66908f4deec9c57554079dfaeba652412c4e466 in august. It must be available from several sites.
  • Experimenting with seeing what happens when they stop selling just for the hell of it? Why?
  • Deliberately halting sales because the price was entering very low territory. this is my theory as espoused in the original post.
  • what else? someone out there must have some other ideas about why they stopped sales.

If they were experimenting I think that fits the definition of manipulation per CFTC(?), would be great to track this info down and get a better idea what happened.

EDIT: Please note that I am not fluent in legal!

Edited by Wandering_Dog

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6 hours ago, PunishmentOfLuxury said:

So, what happened in September?

They took account of the dynamics that play out around their distribution scheme, and preferred having 1 XRP to having 26 US cents. Of course they don't want to be seen as a market manipulator, but they can't win if selling XRP is manipulation, and stopping that manipulation is apparently also manipulation. 

The obvious case that would interest the SEC is if Ripple turned around and started buying back XRP to the point of causing market FOMO and then offloading more during the rally. But the bias is either negative or zero. No pump&dump from XRP II, quite the opposite. 

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1 hour ago, jcdenton said:

They took account of the dynamics that play out around their distribution scheme, and preferred having 1 XRP to having 26 US cents. Of course they don't want to be seen as a market manipulator, but they can't win if selling XRP is manipulation, and stopping that manipulation is apparently also manipulation. 

The obvious case that would interest the SEC is if Ripple turned around and started buying back XRP to the point of causing market FOMO and then offloading more during the rally. But the bias is either negative or zero. No pump&dump from XRP II, quite the opposite. 

Makes sense. I think the problem is the intent coupled with the action. Stopping, starting, or selling more with the intent to change the price. No idea how anyone would prove that in court. Anyway, I imagine they these things are hit by 10 different lawyers before being executed given the resources they have, likely nothing to see here.

Edited by Wandering_Dog

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8 minutes ago, Wandering_Dog said:

Makes sense. I think the problem is the intent coupled with the action. Stopping, starting, or selling more with the intent to change the price. No idea how anyone would prove that in court. Anyway, I imagine they these things are hit by 10 different lawyers before being executed given the resources they have, likely nothing to see here.

Including the former SEC chair who is on their team. I think the thin line is somewhere else; it's their marketing which, unlike XRP II, puts upward pressure on price. Pretty sure they are in constant contact with regulators about what they can and cannot say, so probably nothing to see there either. 

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Great post by @jbjnr2, thank you. The kind of stuff that reminds me, why I still visit this forum.

Sorry if the question was already tackled, but how about Ripple's xrp sales these days of bloodbath in crypto prices overall? Is it halted again?

May I add another question here, that I'm still unsure about; is Ripple's xrp sales only for market makers, suck as exchanges? Or if I'd be just some hedge fund that wants to hodl xrp, could I buy directly from Ripple?

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6 hours ago, Biker said:

Sorry if the question was already tackled, but how about Ripple's xrp sales these days of bloodbath in crypto prices overall? Is it halted again?

May I add another question here, that I'm still unsure about; is Ripple's xrp sales only for market makers, suck as exchanges? Or if I'd be just some hedge fund that wants to hodl xrp, could I buy directly from Ripple?

image.thumb.png.ded698c792532169f05c85f99ad21315.png

19th Nov was normal, still waiting to see full data for 20th Nov. So far it looks like sales are unchanged.

I do not have any information as to how market makers or hedge funds would purchase xrp directly from ripple other than by contacting them directly and taking things from there.

EDIT: 20th Nov payments appear to have gone through as expected. I'm a little disappointed :(. Ripple could have really thrown the cat amongst the pigeons by halting sales during this bitcoin fork fiasco and given xrp one more boost to the top of the crypto pile.

Edited by jbjnr2

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2 hours ago, jbjnr2 said:

I do not have any information as to how market makers or hedge funds would purchase xrp directly from ripple other than by contacting them directly and taking things from there.

Those should only be XRPII sales due to the legal issues Ripple previously faced. They won't take the risk do to it in a different manner I think.

Haven't had time to go through this all, but excellent work once again! I'll post more when I get the opportunity.

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@jbjnr seems noteworthy, activity has halted from the XRP II wallet (rHjJwY4maqRyUxCnJ9bNNQ2Tva9fe9T8ud) for 3 days now - last activity was Nov21

will we see another Sep 12 - 19 pause, followed by significant price increase?

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1 hour ago, aye-epp said:

@jbjnr seems noteworthy, activity has halted from the XRP II wallet (rHjJwY4maqRyUxCnJ9bNNQ2Tva9fe9T8ud) for 3 days now - last activity was Nov21

will we see another Sep 12 - 19 pause, followed by significant price increase?

The wallet that makes most of the daily payments is this one https://bithomp.com/explorer/r49yezViZ8N6FtwwKg9byDYtJ3UDuJi1zv

So far no obvious pauses, but volume is down.

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Before any of you start wondering, I also am guilty of manipulating the price by not selling my XRP at $0.36 AND I even tried to influence the market by suggesting 589 is a prime number - making XRP a prime opportunity.

EDIT: Sorry, I will add something to the discussion here. Is it possible that suspisciously placed downtime will eventually be examine retroactively by the SEC or CFTC? Is it possible that as they go after ICOs they may also start going after dodgy exchanges prior to the big players entering the market?

Edited by jag216

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