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Analysis of Ripple's XRP sales

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43 minutes ago, jbjnr2 said:

Regarding "Market manipulation" : yes. IF my conclusions are correct about ripple halting sales to help stop XRP price declining further, then I believe ripple are "Guilty as charged".

Ripple has no obligation to sell their XRP in the first place, can't conclude that they are guilty of anything. It would be a perverse rule, forcing a business to commit suicide. 

"We sell XRP for no less than $0.26" is just as reasonable and legal a position as "We sell Gold for no less than $1,221.50" or "We sell Axe deodorants for no less than $2.50"

Edited by jcdenton
Added example

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17 minutes ago, jcdenton said:

Ripple has no obligation to sell their XRP in the first place, can't conclude that they are guilty of anything. It would be a perverse rule, forcing a business to commit suicide. 

"We sell XRP for no less than $0.26" is just as reasonable and legal a position as "We sell Gold for no less than $1,221.50" or "We sell Axe deodorants for no less than $2.50"

Yes I quite agree. I have no objection to them setting their selling price. I merely meant that if they are being accused of manipulation, then I think the accusation is probably valid,.  they are allowed to stop selling and resume as they wish. Nobody is forcing me to buy XRP, nobody insists or guarantess that it will rise in price and nobody is going to get sued by me if it falls. I find it startling that everyone doesn't think the same.

(I will of course be watching closely the daily ripple sales from now on - cos if they stop selling ...)

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1 minute ago, jbjnr2 said:

Yes I quite agree. I have no objection to them setting their selling price. I merely meant that if they are being accused of manipulation, then I think the accusation is probably valid,.  they are allowed to stop selling and resume as they wish. Nobody is forcing me to buy XRP, nobody insists or guarantess that it will rise in price and nobody is going to get sued by me if it falls. I find it startling that everyone doesn't think the same.

(I will of course be watching closely the daily ripple sales from now on - cos if they stop selling ...)

We speak of different definitions of market manipulation then, I mean it in the legal way that would result in them very much not being allowed to act like that.

In other definitions, every single trade "manipulates" as in affects the market, but even going down that route, calling the non-act of refraining from entering trades market manipulation is a stretch to say the least. 

Thanks for taking the time to share the charts, very insightful! 

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Impressive analysis, thank you so much for your work man. My question is simple, as pointed out by other users in the forum, how long it will take for Ripple to release all their XRP to the market considering the current rate of $500m per year? It might take decades and at the current volumes the price can not increase if the market can not absorb the new XRP in circulation.

So my questions are:

- Do you think we could see an acceleration of the XRP released to the market by Ripple?

- Do you think even at this rate we could see a considerable increase of the price (driven by real usage) in the next few years?

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1 minute ago, xrpen said:

Impressive analysis, thank you so much for your work man. My question is simple, as pointed out by other users in the forum, how long it will take for Ripple to release all their XRP to the market considering the current rate of $500m per year? It might take decades and at the current volumes the price can not increase if the market can not absorb the new XRP in circulation.

So my questions are:

- Do you think we could see an acceleration of the XRP released to the market by Ripple?

- Do you think even at this rate we could see a considerable increase of the price (driven by real usage) in the next few years?

I think that they go hand-in-hand. As the demand increases,  particularly from the institutions, Ripple will release more XRP but at the same time I doubt that enough will be released to totally negate the increase in value.

I can't predict how the demand will increase or how much xrp will be released, but if XRP and Ripple are to be successful, then I can guess that in the next 5 years, Ripple could at times be close to releasing the full amount of the monthly escrow value. If xrp does take the top position, private investors may also see it as a store of value and thus hold it in their wallets meaning that not all the volume released by Ripple will add to daily liquidity, which in an increasing utility demand situation should cause the price to continue to rise. 

These are only my views, based on much more than the above of course, and the reasons why I will continue to hold the majority of my stake for the next 5 to 10 years, with any price over $10 in that time being a massive bonus

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Awesome - although it is much too complex for me to fully understand.  Not selling when the price dips too much could be construed as a common sense policy.  Why sell your assets below what you consider to be their market value?  But abruptness and uniqueness looks like a manipulative act. 

I think as the banks and institutions accrue a lot more XRP that will create market conditions that stabilise XRP from falling too low.  Much more worried of a bubble where every investment fund puts 5% of their portfolio into XRP and locks away the XRP needed for utility, the price would go through the roof.  There are only 15 XRP per person and it looks as if this DA will be locked up in many more ways than just banking (Smart contracts, Store of value, Derivatives, Commodities,Long term holds...endless applications).

Of course the price going through the roof would make me rich beyond my dreams, but that is not the point of the project.

Edited by Julian_Williams

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46 minutes ago, Zerp_Legend said:

One note : manipulation is not always negative . We would t even be here if some powerful bull whales haven’t bought like crazy during the last 5 years ;)

Maybe, however do you really want the fate of this market in the hands of a few?   Crypto was supposed to be a more democratic evolution than what we have now.

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9 minutes ago, Defcon_1 said:

Maybe, however do you really want the fate of this market in the hands of a few?   Crypto was supposed to be a more democratic evolution than what we have now.

Decentralisation is an illusion . Power will always be concentrated . We can benefit from it by following the smart money 

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Just now, Zerp_Legend said:

Decentralisation is an illusion . Power will always be concentrated . We can benefit from it by following the smart money 

Then we all become sheep once again.  I can't sign on to that.

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3 hours ago, jbjnr2 said:

Further analysis: Now that WietseWind has put the entire ledger online, I may well look for further interesting evidence of xRapid. My google "Big Query" skills are non-existent at this stage, so it will require some experimentation. I have ideas for things to look for, but welcome suggestions.

Thanks. If I had the skills and the required data then I would try to analyze xRapid utilization this way:

1. Get the data from Bittrex (origin exchange of xRapid).

2. Get the data from Bitso (destination exchange of xRapid).

3. Get the FX rates daily for the pair USD/MXN.

4. Put all of the previous data into one large table.

5. Create a method (IF-functions maybe?) that will recognize when "LOW VALUE" XRP transfers have been sent from Bittrex to Bitso addresses.

"LOW VALUE" = XRP transfers between 20-200 worth in USDs by utilizing the FX rates).

6. Calculate the daily amount of the possible xRapid transfers based on the previous step and draw charts.

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So, let me get this I-learned-all-my-financio-economic-theory-from-BTC-forums talking-point straight:

If I don't either buy or sell my XRP, when (anyone) wants me to, then I am "manipulating the market"?

I believe some of you are a bit confused;  Ripple owns their XRP just like you and I own our own XRP.

They don't tell me what I can do with my XRP and I don't tell them what they can do;  I like it that way.

If you want to go back to being captive to miners charging huge fees and "deciding" what to process, your definition of "freedom" could use a little refresher course and you should probably - if you're sincere about the pursuit of the lofty goals that you say you want - look into exactly how the XRP ledger works and the very limited power that it has to coerce you, in either direction.

*shrug*

That said, it's indeed very easy to see what Ripple is doing with their XRP.  (Why would they do that?)

(Do any of the major holders of any other coin disclose all their trades - or even their real identities?)

You fellers think on that...  I'm not the "lead a horse to water and fight it until it drinks" kind of guy. :)

 

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4 hours ago, Defcon_1 said:

Then we all become sheep once again.  I can't sign on to that.

He's right though. You can put your head in the sand and ignore reality, but that's just the way it is and always will be. If you can't beat em, join em.

Us vs them is a false dichotomy here. The world isn't such a bad place....

Edited by mrhat75

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