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itcdominic

In 5 years (not that far into the future).....

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6 hours ago, ADingoAteMyXRP said:

Ha! I am definitely not an insider. I’m just a person with a calculator and too much free time. (And to be clear... I think none of these riddler people are insiders either. They only post riddles so there’s plausible deniability when their fabricated predictions are wrong.)

In order to serve daily volumes in the $5T+ a day range, XRP would have to be worth massive numbers. Imagine 10% of all XRP were utilized by xRapid in a given day, with the other 90% going to industry holdings, bank holdings, escrow, reserve currency, retail holdings, corporate treasury, micropayments etc. (I think 5% is more reasonable, but staying conservative we’ll say 10%). 

If that 10% were valued at $5T total (to serve xRapid), it would give all XRP a market cap of $50T, which means about $500 per XRP. That doesn’t count lost coins, which are probably in the vicinity of 20% of non-escrowed assets.

Drop the xRapid-available portion down to 5% and it’s more like $1,000 per token. That’s with a daily volume of $5T.

SWIFT and ACI volume combined is more like $19T. So... a lot more?

To be transparent I think this is a long shot and not likely to play out perfectly, but even if Ripple won a tiny portion of that market, we might see some nice increases. 

This is not investment advice! I’m not a financial adviser, etc etc.

Wrong... in all kinds of ways.  You have to factor in so many other things that are infinitely more important than Daily transaction volumes and use of XRP.   Speed of Money (velocity)  is one of them. Demand is obvious... and the kind that doesn't involve a net zero wash factor... people keep thinking that when X amount of xrp is moved it isn't going anywhere else... no, it is used and released for use again... therefore you don't just need insane amounts of use against the billions of xrp.. you need it to be happening all at the same exact time... the demand has to happen at the same time or you just have a wash. 

Forget about how much Swift transacts in a day and how much money is in the world and blah blah, all that really matters is xrp utility trading volume.  Saying Swift does Trillions per day and if XRP takes a percentage of that compared to its availability will then equal X... nonsense..... the moment it becomes valuable is when XRP can transact those trillions.... per minute. 

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In 5 years, the price only has to be low single digit dollars for me to earn a high yearly salary from XRP over those 5 years.  That's how I look at it.   Still haven't finished building my stack either.  Of course, XRP could be (in theory) 5 cents in 5 years' time.  I am prepared for that too.

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17 minutes ago, dontsellmeadog said:

Wrong... in all kinds of ways.  You have to factor in so many other things that are infinitely more important than Daily transaction volumes and use of XRP.   Speed of Money (velocity)  is one of them. Demand is obvious... and the kind that doesn't involve a net zero wash factor... people keep thinking that when X amount of xrp is moved it isn't going anywhere else... no, it is used and released for use again... therefore you don't just need insane amounts of use against the billions of xrp.. you need it to be happening all at the same exact time... the demand has to happen at the same time or you just have a wash. 

Forget about how much Swift transacts in a day and how much money is in the world and blah blah, all that really matters is xrp utility trading volume.  Saying Swift does Trillions per day and if XRP takes a percentage of that compared to its availability will then equal X... nonsense..... the moment it becomes valuable is when XRP can transact those trillions.... per minute. 

The reality is in the middle somewhere. The fact is that XRP needs a high price for it to be useful for banks to avoid slippage and illiquidity.  A high price is the easiest way to build liquidity - it's far easier than trying to get more and more market makers to place bids and asks.  xRapid will buy and sell at market value.  This will create opportunities for arbitragers, in turn creating extra volume.  As XRP becomes more and more useful, people will want to hold it, thus fulfilling its rise in price.  Any useful asset is bound to rise in value. 

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1 hour ago, dontsellmeadog said:

Wrong... in all kinds of ways.  You have to factor in so many other things that are infinitely more important than Daily transaction volumes and use of XRP.   Speed of Money (velocity)  is one of them. Demand is obvious... and the kind that doesn't involve a net zero wash factor... people keep thinking that when X amount of xrp is moved it isn't going anywhere else... no, it is used and released for use again... therefore you don't just need insane amounts of use against the billions of xrp.. you need it to be happening all at the same exact time... the demand has to happen at the same time or you just have a wash. 

Forget about how much Swift transacts in a day and how much money is in the world and blah blah, all that really matters is xrp utility trading volume.  Saying Swift does Trillions per day and if XRP takes a percentage of that compared to its availability will then equal X... nonsense..... the moment it becomes valuable is when XRP can transact those trillions.... per minute. 

“Wrong!” I forgot about the long discredited notion that XRP’s maximum possible value is $0.0015 because “speed of money.” 

No, the same XRP is not being whirled around the planet constantly all day long by magic. You need actual buyers and sellers to arbitrage between exchanges, you need market makers and takers to horde, buy, and sell. An average use rate of once per day for most of that stored value is reasonable imo, especially considering true value will need to accommodate peak amounts and not average. Obviously neither of us know for sure until we see real-world utility, but what we have already seen is that market cap is often much higher than capital investment when you’re talking about a currency.

In my opinion a daily average volume is a good estimate of market cap for coins that are available via xRapid.

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On 11/15/2018 at 10:53 AM, Blubber said:
On 11/15/2018 at 10:43 AM, flanman said:

Last year everyone here thought it would be worth at least $10 by now.

Yes, how conveniently forgotten.

Last Year it moved from .50 to 3.60 in three weeks.  The year isn't over.  $10 could still happen in 2018

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35 minutes ago, Eric123 said:

 

Last Year it moved from .50 to 3.60 in three weeks.  The year isn't over.  $10 could still happen in 2018

I'll send you 1000 XRP if it does.

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