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Domp_Eet

For XRP to take over, Bitcoin must have another bubble

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If any cryptocurrency is going to decouple, bitcoin must have another bubble and, at least, reach the previous ATH.

We all know while the media and masses were caught up in the who-ha of BTC creeping closer and closer to $20K, that was actually the single greatest stress test of the fundamental BTC technology ever. Period. And what did that rapid climb show us? Exorbitant transaction fees, preposterous hours-long waiting times, people going crazy that their unconfirmed trades netting them losses on otherwise straightforwardly profitable sell orders.... the list goes on.

The whole 2017 EOY experience also saw the peak of bitcoin's percentage of total market capitalization. Other cryptocurrencies are taking the spot obviously, but it's naive to not say that this drop is because older players had a very rude awakening last January: the Bitcoin infrastructure is obsolete, made in a time when blackebrries were still a thing, 3 GB of RAM was considered a lot and HD was still a luxurious prototype.

But it was also the single best time for BTC: free publicity, all over the news, new money from retail investors pouring in like crazy due to FOMO. It became a household name. So my own personal prediction is that if BTC could reach $10K by late November, the stage will be set for another large spike and retail investors will once again pour in due to FOMO and the whole news hpe cycle will start again. I expect that this will be the exit for many larger players as we encounter the same problems yet again and the smarter money will realize that this is a fundamentally obsolete asset and that prices will probably never spike this high again for BTC. They will cash out and distribute their earnings across the various altcoins and after that god knows what will happen.

My personal belief is that although decoupling or let alone the flippening will not happen instantaneously by early 2019, that gap between BTC to ETH and XRP will narrow very considerably and the downward trend for BTC will be irreversibly after that. No single coin will emerge totally triumphant as the ''new bitcoin'' but the damage will be totally done as many large players abandon BTC. For me personally, decoupling could happen next year and has a higher probability than ever BUT bitcoin must have a wildly speculative bubble to simultaneously get new money in and old money out. needless to say there will be another wave of bagholders and a slury of ''I bought BTC at 19000'' posts on youtube and reddit.

I'm new here, so please don't totally annihilate me just yet! 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, JA8 said:

XRP could overtake BTC without any new speculative bubble of my kind. This is because XRP’s primary use-case may result in large scale buying / depletion of exchange order books.

When we'll take off BTC will be the new USDT!

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1 hour ago, Domp_Eet said:

If any cryptocurrency is going to decouple, bitcoin must have another bubble and, at least, reach the previous ATH.

We all know while the media and masses were caught up in the who-ha of BTC creeping closer and closer to $20K, that was actually the single greatest stress test of the fundamental BTC technology ever. Period. And what did that rapid climb show us? Exorbitant transaction fees, preposterous hours-long waiting times, people going crazy that their unconfirmed trades netting them losses on otherwise straightforwardly profitable sell orders.... the list goes on.

The whole 2017 EOY experience also saw the peak of bitcoin's percentage of total market capitalization. Other cryptocurrencies are taking the spot obviously, but it's naive to not say that this drop is because older players had a very rude awakening last January: the Bitcoin infrastructure is obsolete, made in a time when blackebrries were still a thing, 3 GB of RAM was considered a lot and HD was still a luxurious prototype.

But it was also the single best time for BTC: free publicity, all over the news, new money from retail investors pouring in like crazy due to FOMO. It became a household name. So my own personal prediction is that if BTC could reach $10K by late November, the stage will be set for another large spike and retail investors will once again pour in due to FOMO and the whole news hpe cycle will start again. I expect that this will be the exit for many larger players as we encounter the same problems yet again and the smarter money will realize that this is a fundamentally obsolete asset and that prices will probably never spike this high again for BTC. They will cash out and distribute their earnings across the various altcoins and after that god knows what will happen.

My personal belief is that although decoupling or let alone the flippening will not happen instantaneously by early 2019, that gap between BTC to ETH and XRP will narrow very considerably and the downward trend for BTC will be irreversibly after that. No single coin will emerge totally triumphant as the ''new bitcoin'' but the damage will be totally done as many large players abandon BTC. For me personally, decoupling could happen next year and has a higher probability than ever BUT bitcoin must have a wildly speculative bubble to simultaneously get new money in and old money out. needless to say there will be another wave of bagholders and a slury of ''I bought BTC at 19000'' posts on youtube and reddit.

I'm new here, so please don't totally annihilate me just yet! 

 

 

Practically speaking, I think there is something too this, even though I don't think it's necessary.  XRP has a use case and institutional money, devices coming in that will eventually put it over the top.  But BTC is untenable so in my mind it seems a bit like a race to see which event happens first; XRP adoption or BTC disgust.  My hunch is that BTC never makes it over $16K again before a flip for the reasons you mention if XRP volume significantly increases in 2019.  But like everyone else, I'm just guessing.

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Money is tightening up across the globe, so it will take institutional money to move price. Volume is a better indicator for XRP health (price). BTC has mind share and may stick around longer than anyone believes. Most news and investors are crypto weary. For all the crypto hype and 1000s of coins, there are few successes based on value to businesses and institutions. Making money of speculation and day trading (minute trading for crypto) is a risky business. I state all of this to basically say BTC does not have to go down or up for XRP to finally realize its potential. Real use cases that prove savings to real business will do more for XRP value than anything else. In the meantime, if BTC spikes, enjoy riding the wake, but expect the wake to pull you under if BTC falls. XRP does not have enough real business volume to decouple right now IMO. 

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