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MUsince96

Yearly January Bear Market

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So when the bear market started this year someone had posted how for the last 4 years or so, a bear market hits in January then recovers in March-April.

However, this year it's been much much different. It hit in January like usual but still hasn't recovered. So will this break the 4-5 year trend? Will it get even worse in January 2019 or has that trend been broken and all bets are off?

I got into crypto in July 2017. If I would've known about the yearly January bear market I would have sold it all for an insane profit and bought back my position & then some after the crash. It kills me every time I think about it.

Just curious if others think the trend has been broken. 

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So when the bear market started this year someone had posted how for the last 4 years or so, a bear market hits in January then recovers in March-April.
However, this year it's been much much different. It hit in January like usual but still hasn't recovered. So will this break the 4-5 year trend? Will it get even worse in January 2019 or has that trend been broken and all bets are off?
I got into crypto in July 2017. If I would've known about the yearly January bear market I would have sold it all for an insane profit and bought back my position & then some after the crash. It kills me every time I think about it.
Just curious if others think the trend has been broken. 

“If you had known”?

This is nonsense, intellectual dishonesty at best.

Nobody knows the future.

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1 hour ago, whiteout said:


“If you had known”?

This is nonsense, intellectual dishonesty at best.

Nobody knows the future.

Obviously no one knows the future. Care to explain how I'm intellectually dishonest?

Yeah, if I had known of what the market did every January in the past I would have pulled profits and got back in after the crash. I was unaware of past events therefore I didn't do anything. Not sure how that makes me dishonest. 

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2 hours ago, MUsince96 said:

So when the bear market started this year someone had posted how for the last 4 years or so, a bear market hits in January then recovers in March-April.

However, this year it's been much much different. It hit in January like usual but still hasn't recovered. So will this break the 4-5 year trend? Will it get even worse in January 2019 or has that trend been broken and all bets are off?

I got into crypto in July 2017. If I would've known about the yearly January bear market I would have sold it all for an insane profit and bought back my position & then some after the crash. It kills me every time I think about it.

Just curious if others think the trend has been broken. 

You might want to check the recovery time.  My experience has been that the bear market hits in the beginning of the year, and then basically goes sideways until the fall/winter holidays.  However, the only coin with enough volume and time to really test that is BTC, and the sideways pattern lasts 1-3 years after huge corrections like we saw this time around.

*insert past =/= future disclaimer here*

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6 minutes ago, AlibabaGrp said:

We didn't have a bear market January 2017. Slight corrections but nothing major

This is what I was referring to. 2017 does look to have a decent drop before it makes it back later in the year. image.png.f440de5a33b592f80fa25ca06bd2b7e3.png

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I only have access to data back to 2010, I wish I had it back to like 2003 but w/e.  I hope this helps.  You'll see how the price has massive % jumps, always followed by sell offs, and then long sideways patterns.  Good luck timing though.  There is no guarantee on the timing of the runs.  It's just a rule of thumb right now end of year brings gains, beginning of the year losses, and middle of the year flatish. 

 

BTC_hist.PNG

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Thanks Kalarie. I guess I was just wondering what the opinion was if this year changes any regular patterns. If a January slump is still predicted in 2019 or did this year change things.

And before anyone replies with another "No one can know". I know that. It's just an opinion, gut feeling type thread. 

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15 minutes ago, MUsince96 said:

This is what I was referring to. 2017 does look to have a decent drop before it makes it back later in the year. image.png.f440de5a33b592f80fa25ca06bd2b7e3.png

That's a correction, bear market is what we're experiencing now. Certain moving averages cross each other for a few months

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10 minutes ago, MUsince96 said:

Thanks Kalarie. I guess I was just wondering what the opinion was if this year changes any regular patterns. If a January slump is still predicted in 2019 or did this year change things.

And before anyone replies with another "No one can know". I know that. It's just an opinion, gut feeling type thread. 

If we started a new poker game thread right now I would predict a selloff in late Jan-early Feb.  The X factor for XRP is Xrapid volume though.  I'm honestly torn as to whether that breaks the pattern in 2019, or it's the 3-5 years away thing happening in 2021-2023.  My prediction isn't worth anything though, I promise. 

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14 minutes ago, Kalarie said:

If we started a new poker game thread right now I would predict a selloff in late Jan-early Feb.  The X factor for XRP is Xrapid volume though.  I'm honestly torn as to whether that breaks the pattern in 2019, or it's the 3-5 years away thing happening in 2021-2023.  My prediction isn't worth anything though, I promise. 

Without a serious bull run in Q4 I don't know what people would be selling off in Jan-early Feb. Seems crazy if it drops even further, that's a lot of folks selling for a loss. 

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2 hours ago, EWH2020 said:

There will be another January dip because people will take their profits. Particularly in China whereby they need the cash to send relatives for New Year. 

After Chinese New Year the Wall Street bankers will receive bonuses and I anticipate a huge bull run

what profits?

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