Jump to content
Guest

Prediction of XRP price in 2024 based on "Blockchain in Payments 2018" report by Ripple

Recommended Posts

Guest

Ripple just published their report on Blockchain in Payments. They surveyed 700 payment professionals in 22 countries around the world.

You can download the report here:

https://ripple.com/blockchain-in-payments-report/

I will try to predict the price based only on utility.

Let's start. So according to the report the market size of cross-border payments will be around 47 trillion dollars in 2026.

I will add 1 trillion for global remittances in 2026 for simplicity.

size-of-the-market.png.57f14507f18cda5bcec78ff6c123425a.png

Ripple predicts that in 2024 the adoption for blockchain (xCurrent) will be around 60% for FIs.

blockchain-adoption.thumb.png.5cf5fc0931794f2b1980ed5ff8270b92.png

From the same report the xCurrent customers say that 85% will be extremely interested in using a digital asset for settlement. Let's take the assumption that 70% of the xCurrent customers will use XRP.

digital-asset-adoption.png.606ca8094e6383ecb87568b957c68c66.png

Another assumption is that the circulating supply with 200 million released every month will be roughly 52 billion XRP in 5 years. There are many factors that could change the circulating supply. Also we don't take into account the coin burn.

With Ripple capturing the 60% of the cross-border market and global remittances with xCurrent, we will have a 29 trillion market cap.

If 70% of the xCurrent customers use XRP, we will have 20 trillion market cap.

With 20 trillion market cap and 52 billion supply, the price of XRP will be $384,61 per XRP in 2024.

This is not counting various other use cases such as FX market, web monetization and other retail use cases.

It doesn't of course takes into account speculation (the main drive for price today).

This is only an attempt at trying to valuate the potential of XRP based on utility.

Edited by Guest

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice but I just want to clarify that it's your assumption, it's not something written in the report, wasn't clear for me at first ?

Edited by kenrino

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
10 minutes ago, kenrino said:

Nice but I just want to clarify that it's your assumption, it's not something written in the report, wasn't clear for me at first ?

The graphs are from the report. The predicted supply and XRP adoption (based again on the survey) are my assumptions. All the other stats are based from the report. 

Edited by Guest

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, icebreath said:

With Ripple capturing the 60% of the cross-border market and global remittances with xCurrent, we will have a 29 trillion market cap.

Is this calculation based on the SWIFTs 4 days needed for an average $ 400.000,- international payment or on Ripples XRP transfer in 5 seconds.... because then you would know that the global remittance market with Ripple technology will only be 6.9 trillion....

There are more calculation errors.... I advice you to start praying that global adoption for XRP in other usecases will develop as soon as possible....;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, EthanHunt said:

I can't seem to wrap my head around why increased volume on an exchange necessarily correlates to increased price. 

It doesnt necessarily increase the price below a certain threshold/volume but there are several reasons why its very likely to increase. 

In order that I see it happening:

1: speculation. Too many attempts at valuation dont mention anything about the frenzy that will come from speculators

2: scarcity. Yes i know there are almost 40 billion XRP circulating but its likely there is a much smaller percent actually available for trade at any one time. If daily volumes start to get into the 10, 20, 30... billion per day day then XRP will become scare if the price is low enough

3: Jevons paradox. The more volume that starts to run through XRP and the more people using it, the more uses that will be added or invented for it

Anyone think of more reasons?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Benchmark said:

The really cool part is that chart from the report. We're going from frontier adoption to early adopters. Most development still lies ahead. 2023 is a good year to evaluate your XRP holdings. 

That is around the time when many of the RTGS systems around the world are looking for upgrades. The Bank of England for example by then, would be around 2/3 done with renewing their system based on some of their publications. This staggered upgrade approach is driving me insane however its understandable considering the system in the UK handles over £600  billion per day. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
43 minutes ago, cryptoxrp said:

Is this calculation based on the SWIFTs 4 days needed for an average $ 400.000,- international payment or on Ripples XRP transfer in 5 seconds.... because then you would know that the global remittance market with Ripple technology will only be 6.9 trillion....

There are more calculation errors.... I advice you to start praying that global adoption for XRP in other usecases will develop as soon as possible....;)

This is based on the Boston Consulting Group from the report, that estimates that the cross-border payments market will be $47 trillion volume in 2026. I added the global remittances to $1 trillion for 2026 when today is $642 billion.

Where exactly are the calculation errors?

Edited by Guest

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
1 hour ago, cryptoxrp said:

Is this calculation based on the SWIFTs 4 days needed for an average $ 400.000,- international payment or on Ripples XRP transfer in 5 seconds.... because then you would know that the global remittance market with Ripple technology will only be 6.9 trillion....

There are more calculation errors.... I advice you to start praying that global adoption for XRP in other usecases will develop as soon as possible....;)

Take a look at this video by Ripple:

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

×