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JA8

Geopolitical events, next recession overdue

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Posted (edited)

Not sure where this topic should go - so feel free to move if required.

I'm wondering what this community feels will happen to the cryptosphere in the event of a recession... one that is looking increasingly likely to occur either before 2018 is through, or in early 2019. I'm simplifying hugely here, but personally, I see some initial risk-off trade action in cryptos (as well as gold/silver) as leveraged stock market participants try to shore up their balance sheets and cover margin calls. Once the risk-offs and margin calls are done and dusted, this could then add fuel to a bull market as people look to save havens.

Some of the primary catalysts which are screaming for a recession are:

- Stock market P/E ratios making new all-time highs into vastly overvalued territory;
- S&P500 at an ATH and at least two years overdue for a 30%+ correction (see attached pic - hmm I wonder what will happen next...);
- Currently we're part of the second longest economic expansion in history, and if this goes on until next year it will be the longest (see attached pic which goes back to 1929);

Importantly, there are some immediate potential catalysts: 

- Right now: Italy's budget crisis unravelling - government wants to deliver UBI, flat tax and pension reforms - likely to cause (huge) friction with the EU;
- Brexit is an ongoing circus, but reaches a potential crisis point in March 2019:
- Unravelling of the EU in general.

Recessions-Historical.png.c3c090fee128193c9a4ddfbd1bbc94ff.png

1509412889_ScreenShot2018-10-01at12_27_36.png.02cdf620f4e48794fab8aedd31969377.png

Edited by JA8

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