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Youtube Comment $589 RePost... Zerpers Feedback Required

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Hi Zerpers,

I saw this comment on Rob Art's youtube video regarding $589+ and I wondered if any of those more familiar with TA would be able to advise the legitimacy? 

Hello Rob Art

I have recently posted the below for Jungle Inc and as you have also touched on this subject, then i would like you to consider these facts before stating that XRP will take extreme amounts of money to reach $589. Please take particular note of the section where i show on the Bittrex Exchange that transacting small amounts of money can push up the price dramatically. Please do not be fooled into thinking that it will take 'Billions of Dollars' to force the price of XRP to the extremes - it will not. I wanted to say thank you for making a video that does not berate others for suggesting a price of $589 as many others have. I have posted many comments explaining why, in my professional opinion, XRP can reach very high numbers dramatically faster than any other coin which is currently on the market.

As you have opened this discussion, i wanted to go through the simplification of this process so you may hopefully share this information and thus see for yourself (a confirmation if you will) of how this will be achieved. As you know, Ripple have now partnered with a number of exchanges around the world and surely this number will grow. This network of liquidity providers will become the go-to place for buy/sell for Retail Market Makers as these are the exchanges that are servicing transactions for the payment flows of the institutions. If an exchange is not within this liquidity network, then the XRP on these exchanges will drain away as Retail investors begin to move their XRP onto the platform.

This will happen due to either: 1) Arbitrage - although other exchanges will not let the price fluctuate too much so as not to miss out on the higher prices 2) Natural migration to preferred exchanges for rapid buy/sell opportunities As one can expect, no exchange will want to miss out on the potential for making money where servicing XRP transactions would provide a healthy income stream for the exchange. Unfortunately, most exchanges are simply not large enough with enough capital backing for Ripple to sign them as a preferred exchange. Now, onto the method of price increase which i believe will occur. We can guarantee that the spread on the exchange for XRP will be extremely tight so as to ensure near perfect entry and exit from the Ripple Preferred Partner Solution (RPPS from now on). The RPPS consortium will also be working within a framework that will ensure co-ordinated price movement of XRP to eliminate arbitrage trading from XRP/FIAT pairs which will then obviously filter into the USDT/BTC markets on these exchanges (thats even if they still exist at this point). It will be a requirement that these 3rd party pairs will need to decouple from XRP so as to ensure that extreme price fluctuations in BTC will never impact the price of XRP. Even a price drop of $0.01 cent will have a dramatic impact on the movement of value when we are talking about Millions of Dollars. Now, we know that members of RPPS have been (and continue to be) pre-funded with XRP so they may service the xRapid transactions. This pre-funding is necessary to guarantee transactions made by Financial Institutions, we can't have any of the transactions fail due to lack of XRP liquidity!

These exchanges will also be reliant of the XRP provided by Market Makers to bolster the XRP liquidity thus adding to the exchange total supply. Now, the exchanges will prefer (at first) to use the XRP from Market Makers to increase the price of the XRP Coin. Why do i say this? Because it simply makes sense to use the immediately available XRP to raise the price in a dramatic fashion. This then increases the Exchange reserve pool that 'must' service the transaction requests, but now it has been increased dramatically... let me explain:

- Bittrex Order book currently shows that from $0.27 cents to $1.49 totals $47,078 Dollars through XRP/FIAT pairing (which is the same channel that will be used by RPPS) - Simply transacting $47,078 at this point will instantly push the price of XRP to $1.49 -

- Bittrex Order book currently shows that from $0.27 cents to $25 totals $3,651,361 Dollars - Transacting $3,651,361 Dollars at this point will instantly push the price of XRP to $25

- Bittrex Order book currently shows that from $0.27 cents to $100 totals $3,743,466 Dollars - Transacting $3,743,466 Dollars at this point will instantly push the price of XRP to $100

Now the XRP price numbers get much higher than this if you take a look for yourself, but it makes sense to use these orders to push up the price in a dramatic fashion so as to provide a stable pool of XRP liquidity to service further Institutions and FX transfer. The Exchange at this point can then create large Buy/Sell walls at either side (in the magnitude of 10's of Millions of XRP) from their very own supply to ensure price stability. By performing this simple manoeuvre, the exchange can not be accused of XRP price manipulation as the Retail orders where filled first and then the exchange stepped in to service the rest of the transactions. I mention the phrase 'at this point' due to the fact that no Retail Investor knows when xRapid is going to go live, so this can in fact happen at any time, and Ripple needs it to remain this way. By ensuring this they can guarantee a 'one time' rapid price increase that professional investors will also be glad of. They will want to ensure, in fact 'guarantee', that Market Makers are then priced out of the market and those who are intelligent enough to have already purchased will be flocking to sell their XRP in an instant. They will need to sell at a lower rate to ensure the sell of their coins as placing them in a pool of 10's of millions of XRP will not fill their order immediately.

I know this seems such a simple process to be believable, but make no mistake this is what 'will' happen, and it will be happening all over the world on the RPPS at the same time as all XRP Liquidity providers will begin tight alinement regards XRP price. NB - I wanted to add the figure for you which is an easy to understand number that will guarantee a price of $500 per XRP. This is on a single exchange granted, but when XRP goes live (and it will without the knowledge of Retail investors), the productions corridors will begin to flow simultaneously. This 'will' happen, and the price will increase in perfect synchronicity on all Ripple preferred exchanges all over the world... so...

- Bittrex Order book currently shows that from $0.27 cents to $500 totals $39,544,766 Dollars - Transacting $39,544,766 Dollars at this point will instantly push the price of XRP to $500

Now let me be clear - $39,544,766 is all it would take to push up this price on the USD/XRP market. All other markets (BTC/XRP ETH/XRP USDT/XRP) on this exchange will rise in tandem as to coincide with this price. It will not take Billions of dollars to push up this price, you can see this now.. You have mentioned that you have been in the markets for some time now and you must know that there are small and large jumps in-between the sell orders. It is the sell orders that bring up the price, no one can buy if there is no sell order. Hope this helps

Kind Regards

Shane Ellis

Any advice would be great ?

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Weirdly this has already been asked here. The comment is correct and logically consistent.

I'm surprised it's not more obvious, but I see a lot of misunderstanding about coin market caps. They bear no relation whatsoever to the actual amount of money in the market. The amount of money in the market is always far smaller.

Here's an example of why this is the case:

When ZCash first launched, someone listed one zcash coin for some ridiculous amount, i.e. $1m - presumably as a joke. Someone else came along (or more likely probably the same person using a different account) and bought one millionth of that zcash coin for $1, which of course immediately sent the price of the coin to $1m. 

The media reports the next day were pretty amusing. I think noone really knew what had happened. But this happens all the time in crypto to a greater or lesser extent. 

 

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13 minutes ago, Yodaxrp said:

Without prejudice...what he says make sense under economical point of view. Period:rolleyes:

@Yodaxrp - I knew you were the man to answer this...

I think the thing which struck me was the simplistic nature with which the price could rise.

Based on the corridors recently announced by David Schwartz, the liquidity inbound from xRapid would be sufficient (in Lehmans terms) to drive the price way way up... 

I just feel like there must be more to it?

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I don't enjoy being the doubter...  but I don't think it's as simple as that because Ripple have said they would be supporting market makers.

The picture of an order book now,  and one under that scenario,  could be markedly different....  as market makers place bids and asks close to the price with very large amounts of XRP and fiat.

That instantly takes the wind out of the sails of that optimistic and simplistic view of how it might go.....

Ultimately that is a good thing because a slow and steady price rise is much less disruptive to all the institutions involved.  Of course fomo will add in to that,  so it could be exciting for at least a few months or years until it is stably floating on a deep sea of liquidity.

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@HenryHole

Well, nobody ensures you the the order book used as example stays constant over the time, so...it's just an example.

Second we do not officially know which will be the corridors.

Last we hope the number of corridors will increase over the time.

Anyway thanks a lot for the consideration!

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4 minutes ago, Yodaxrp said:

@HenryHole

Well, nobody ensures you the the order book used as example stays constant over the time, so...it's just an example.

Second we do not officially know which will be the corridors.

Last we hope the number of corridors will increase over the time.

Anyway thanks a lot for the consideration!

No problem...

I do not post as much as I would like but I know in the past @Yodaxrp has been very knowledgable when it comes to arbitrage, TA and finance.

?

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8 minutes ago, Tinyaccount said:

I don't enjoy being the doubter...  but I don't think it's as simple as that because Ripple have said they would be supporting market makers.

The picture of an order book now,  and one under that scenario,  could be markedly different....  as market makers place bids and asks close to the price with very large amounts of XRP and fiat.

That instantly takes the wind out of the sails of that optimistic and simplistic view of how it might go.....

Ultimately that is a good thing because a slow and steady price rise is much less disruptive to all the institutions involved.  Of course fomo will add in to that,  so it could be exciting for at least a few months or years until it is stably floating on a deep sea of liquidity.

I agree... A slow and steady price rise is almost definitely the way it should/will go...

I just thought the simplistic approach above made it seem 'too good to be true' so I wanted some of the more experienced Zerpers to clarify.

Thank you @Tinyaccount for your response ?

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32 minutes ago, HenryHole said:

@Yodaxrp - I knew you were the man to answer this...

I think the thing which struck me was the simplistic nature with which the price could rise.

Based on the corridors recently announced by David Schwartz, the liquidity inbound from xRapid would be sufficient (in Lehmans terms) to drive the price way way up... 

I just feel like there must be more to it?

It actually could happen quite easily... all that needs to happen is for a bank using xRapid (for example) to come along and buy a large proportion of the XRP listed for sale on a participating exchange, thereby eating the entire or vast majority of the order book.

If I look at Poloniex at this instant for example, there is $2.5m of XRP listed for sale, but noone has listed any for sale upwards of $0.90. So in this case if the bank spent $2.5m, the price would only hit $0.90.

But imagine if I decided to list one XRP for sale at $500 right now. In this case, a bank spending that same $2.5m, plus $0.45 for my single XRP, would eat the whole order book and take the price to $500 in the blink of an eye.

However, I admit, the thought of it happening is quite bizarre. Each instance of this occurring would likely see immediate sell-offs down to more reasonable price levels. This would keep happening until such time that xRapid usage became so frequent that daytraders would be unable to force price corrections in the usual way, i.e. selling the top in order to bring the price back down would be futile, because another bank (or the same bank) using xRapid would just come along and immediately eat the whole order book again. 

In reality I'm not sure if we'll see this or not. Like TinyAccount says above it probably depends on the extent of involvement of market makers. If exchange volume for XRP trading increases in tandem with xRapid usage then it may be a more harmonious or organic slow grind up rather than numerous parabolic spikes. Hard to say. Will be interesting to see it unfold.

Edited by JA8

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23 minutes ago, JA8 said:

It actually could happen quite easily... all that needs to happen is for a bank using xRapid (for example) to come along and buy a large proportion of the XRP listed for sale on a participating exchange, thereby eating the entire or vast majority of the order book.

If I look at Poloniex at this instant for example, there is $2.5m of XRP listed for sale, but noone has listed any for sale upwards of $0.90. So in this case if the bank spent $2.5m, the price would only hit $0.90.

But imagine if I decided to list one XRP for sale at $500 right now. In this case, a bank spending that same $2.5m, plus $0.45 for my single XRP, would eat the whole order book and take the price to $500 in the blink of an eye.

However, I admit, the thought of it happening is quite bizarre. Each instance of this occurring would likely see immediate sell-offs down to more reasonable price levels. This would keep happening until such time that xRapid usage became so frequent that daytraders would be unable to force price corrections in the usual way, i.e. selling the top in order to bring the price back down would be futile, because another bank (or the same bank) using xRapid would just come along and immediately eat the whole order book again. 

In reality I'm not sure if we'll see this or not. Like TinyAccount says above it probably depends on the extent of involvement of market makers. If exchange volume for XRP trading increases in tandem with xRapid usage then it may be a more harmonious or organic slow grind up rather than numerous parabolic spikes. Hard to say. Will be interesting to see it unfold.

Makes sense...

 

If you believe the BG123 prophesies, then the 'flippening' will be a (x)rapid and an 'in the blink of an eye' moment... Which falls in line with your point about buying up the order book.

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1 hour ago, JA8 said:

It actually could happen quite easily... all that needs to happen is for a bank using xRapid (for example) to come along and buy a large proportion of the XRP listed for sale on a participating exchange, thereby eating the entire or vast majority of the order book.

If I look at Poloniex at this instant for example, there is $2.5m of XRP listed for sale, but noone has listed any for sale upwards of $0.90. So in this case if the bank spent $2.5m, the price would only hit $0.90.

But imagine if I decided to list one XRP for sale at $500 right now. In this case, a bank spending that same $2.5m, plus $0.45 for my single XRP, would eat the whole order book and take the price to $500 in the blink of an eye.

However, I admit, the thought of it happening is quite bizarre. Each instance of this occurring would likely see immediate sell-offs down to more reasonable price levels. This would keep happening until such time that xRapid usage became so frequent that daytraders would be unable to force price corrections in the usual way, i.e. selling the top in order to bring the price back down would be futile, because another bank (or the same bank) using xRapid would just come along and immediately eat the whole order book again. 

In reality I'm not sure if we'll see this or not. Like TinyAccount says above it probably depends on the extent of involvement of market makers. If exchange volume for XRP trading increases in tandem with xRapid usage then it may be a more harmonious or organic slow grind up rather than numerous parabolic spikes. Hard to say. Will be interesting to see it unfold.

The thing about the immediate sell-offs is that if banks are buying XRP regardless of price, there is no way in hell people will sell XRP for so little.  That's my hope.  Currently there is no reason to buy any crypto regardless of the price.  Remittance use changes that.  Hell if one bank needs to send a million dollars to another country, it wouldn't even matter if 1 xrp cost a million dollars, they're spending the same amount.  This is the thought that has me having even less of a clue as to how much XRP will really be worth once used for remittances.

On one end you have a party that does not care how much the price of XRP is because they just need to transfer a value amount and get out of XRP(probably) instantly. 

On the other end you have people who will want to sell surely before each XRP hits crazy numbers. 

The obvious missing element is the speculative buyers.  

Am I right in thinking that if you have the fortitude to hold longer than even people will fairly strong hands that you will be able to sell at a way ******* higher price.

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2 hours ago, Yodaxrp said:

@HenryHole

Well, nobody ensures you the the order book used as example stays constant over the time, so...it's just an example.

Second we do not officially know which will be the corridors.

Last we hope the number of corridors will increase over the time.

Anyway thanks a lot for the consideration!

This. Those order books are dynamic and fluid and will certainly change dramatically as the price starts to change. 

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This could very well happen, Bittrex is one of the corridors that X-Rapid will be using it as well as Bitso and Coin.ph https://ripple.com/insights/xrapid-brings-on-three-new-exchange-partners/

currently on Bittrex there are sell orders all the way up to $15,000 per xrp, and it would only take 100million to fill all orders increasing the price massively.

What ripple is doing with X-Rapid is nothing we have ever seen before, the next couple of months could be crazy.

  

Screen Shot 2018-09-26 at 10.24.44 am.png

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At the end of the day, this all makes for good conversation, but the OPs quote that was laid out (and I have read the same one before somewhere) is ‘economics in a bubble’. The reality is that movement like that sets off ALL sorts of other actions, which are not controlled and will greatly skew the findings. 

In other words....the whole post means (next to) nothing, other than being good fodder for a first year paper at some weak university. 

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