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XRP price in 3 years.

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1 hour ago, OzAlphaWolf said:

Of course, but your comments on the topic are often loose and can be easily read as the whole of sold escrow ends up on the open market. And I don't see the evidence for that.

It doesn’t matter if it ends up on the open market. It satisfies demand either way. 

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1 hour ago, ringer2 said:

It doesn’t matter if it ends up on the open market. It satisfies demand either way. 

Yes, but that's only one side of the equation. The way this has been presented is that all of the sold escrow ends up depressing the price. I'm saying no, I think the downward pressure is far less than is assumed because the entire new supply in the form of sold escrow is not all available to push down the price.

Anyway, I think this is picking over nits. We both agree that real and growing demand, from whatever source, will be key to push the price up.

Edited by OzAlphaWolf

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22 hours ago, JojoBelt said:

I did investigate all about Ripple. I believe that anyone with common sense would prefer Ripple has less XRP, those are not calculated in price od todays xrp. The number of xrp Ripple holds is soo big that they do not need to worry about the price. Even at this price they have quate big gold mine. Currently they are able to sell 1 billion xrp each month.  And this is not incresing price of xrp. 

I am not speaking about other crypto since 99% of them have no real usage and time will show that. Forks do not make money out of nothing. Money comes from those whi buy fork crypto with fiat. Marketcsp means nothing.

I am just realistic and there is also posible that xrp is worthless. There are many ways this can happen. Regulations, some better solution itc.. No one knows. 

I believe in XRP and hope that Ripple will be able to put xRapid in real usage. I still buy xrp every month and hold all of them, but I am prepared for worse case also. If you are not, then you should not be in crypto!

 

And I dont spread FUD.

 

 

 

I actually wish Ripple would just divest of all of their escrowed XRP and make it disappear forever.  The escrow was a great confidence move for the market, but I don't know why Ripple even needs the XRP in escrow.  If they need money to operate, they should do stock issues like normal companies.  If they want to give the XRP to companies to get them to adopt the ledger, they should buy the XRP out of current circulating supply.  That Escrowed XRP is just going to be a constant cloud of mistrust where new investors in XRP are always going to be wondering about it.  Bonus, Ripple owning/controlling far less XRP would put the nail in the coffin on the XRP is a security claim.

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43 minutes ago, Kalarie said:

I actually wish Ripple would just divest of all of their escrowed XRP and make it disappear forever.  The escrow was a great confidence move for the market, but I don't know why Ripple even needs the XRP in escrow.  If they need money to operate, they should do stock issues like normal companies.  If they want to give the XRP to companies to get them to adopt the ledger, they should buy the XRP out of current circulating supply.  That Escrowed XRP is just going to be a constant cloud of mistrust where new investors in XRP are always going to be wondering about it.  Bonus, Ripple owning/controlling far less XRP would put the nail in the coffin on the XRP is a security claim.

http://galgitron.net/Post/Why-Ripple-needs-so-much-XRP

“Not only is it Ripple's specific targeting of banks to be major XRP holders (similar to how the government allocates freshly printed money to banks when it inflates fiat currency), but it's Ripple's ability to 'dictate' the rate of XRP distribution that allows them to somewhat emulate 'inflation' for XRP; in effect, dampening the force of hoarding by flooding the market with new XRP at rates commensurate with the goal to suppress centralization of XRP.

This requires slow price appreciation, and very targeted distribution. Put another way, the beneficial function of 'inflation' has been reinvented into the act of intelligently distributing the escrow. No other coin's creators, NONE, have demonstrated this incredible foresight and economic wherewithall demonstrated by Ripple, Inc..

Many people cry up and down that it's Ripple's greedy stash for them to profit from, but those in the financial industry immediately recognize what that lockup represents: economic policy.”

Edited by Lamberth

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1 hour ago, Kalarie said:

I actually wish Ripple would just divest of all of their escrowed XRP and make it disappear forever.  

..or something along these lines. Increase the burn ratio perhaps.

Again XRP seems impervious to the rest of the market having a small upwards movement tonight  :)

 

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23 minutes ago, Lamberth said:

http://galgitron.net/Post/Why-Ripple-needs-so-much-XRP

“Not only is it Ripple's specific targeting of banks to be major XRP holders (similar to how the government allocates freshly printed money to banks when it inflates fiat currency), but it's Ripple's ability to 'dictate' the rate of XRP distribution that allows them to somewhat emulate 'inflation' for XRP; in effect, dampening the force of hoarding by flooding the market with new XRP at rates commensurate with the goal to suppress centralization of XRP.

This requires slow price appreciation, and very targeted distribution. Put another way, the beneficial function of 'inflation' has been reinvented into the act of intelligently distributing the escrow. No other coin's creators, NONE, have demonstrated this incredible foresight and economic wherewithall demonstrated by Ripple, Inc..

Many people cry up and down that it's Ripple's greedy stash for them to profit from, but those in the financial industry immediately recognize what that lockup represents: economic policy.”

Galgitron makes a very convincing argument, but I would counter his inflation approach with negative interest rate policy in the chess match of economic policy.  However, holding physical cash to combat negative savings rates, ala Japan, is an admittedly different beast to holding cold/hard wallets to by pass negative rate policy in a world where crypto is the reserve currency.  So putting competing monetary economic policy aside, and running with the standard 1-2% inflationary policy is generally healthy theme, two things still bother me.

1) Inflating the supply of currency in an effort to discourage holding does exactly what @ringer2 says, it depresses the price of XRP, intentionally.  However, price suppression is opposite to what @JoelKatz has said is in the best interest of Ripple and its use cases for XRP.  They have instead suggested that a higher priced token is better for them.

2) Applying inflation to XRP under the guise of monetary policy makes the leap that it is in fact a reserve currency, and not simply a method to facilitating transactions.  For XRP to do its job of turning one currency into another in xRapid, the actual price of XRP doesn't matter.  The value of the swap is agreed upon by both parties before the swap is made.  Inflation or deflation is not necessary for this operation to occur.  Even if all the hoarders stuck all but one zerp into cold storage, that one zerp could be traded as an infinitely large representation of value to allow the xRapid transaction to work, and that one zerp could be divided into drops to make multiple transactions work.

So is Ripple going bank to bank and telling them that XRP is going to be a reserve world currency where Ripple will act like the US Treasury and Federal Reserve to control inflation?  Or, is Ripple just trying to sell the xRapid product and having the token makes the transactions cheap?

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37 minutes ago, Kalarie said:

1) Inflating the supply of currency in an effort to discourage holding does exactly what @ringer2 says, it depresses the price of XRP, intentionally.  However, price suppression is opposite to what @JoelKatz has said is in the best interest of Ripple and its use cases for XRP.  They have instead suggested that a higher priced token is better for them.

2) Applying inflation to XRP under the guise of monetary policy makes the leap that it is in fact a reserve currency, and not simply a method to facilitating transactions.  For XRP to do its job of turning one currency into another in xRapid, the actual price of XRP doesn't matter.  The value of the swap is agreed upon by both parties before the swap is made.  Inflation or deflation is not necessary for this operation to occur.  Even if all the hoarders stuck all but one zerp into cold storage, that one zerp could be traded as an infinitely large representation of value to allow the xRapid transaction to work, and that one zerp could be divided into drops to make multiple transactions work.

So is Ripple going bank to bank and telling them that XRP is going to be a reserve world currency where Ripple will act like the US Treasury and Federal Reserve to control inflation?  Or, is Ripple just trying to sell the xRapid product and having the token makes the transactions cheap?

Can’t comment on Ripple’s behalf, this is my personal opinion.

Price supression is not the goal here, supression of centralization is. Price is merely a collateral damage. In order to supress centralization, the company in question has to prevent hoarding on an early stage of adoption by controlling the supply in order to make sure that hoarders are not getting the critical mass of XRP. This does not contradict with Ripple wanting the price to go higher, it just means healthy ecosystem is more important than short-term profits. This will never be officially confirmed but you can read between the lines. And no, you definitely don’t want to inflate the price so that 1 XRP is traded as an infinitely large representation of value, it would create too much volatility.

Ripple does act as the Treasury in the sense it does what is best for the (eco-)system.

Unfortunately @galgitron is not active at the Forum after certain events in 2017, probably he could have explained this better than I do.

Edited by Lamberth

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6 minutes ago, Lamberth said:

Can’t comment on Ripple’s behalf, this is my personal opinion.

Price supression is not the goal here, supression of centralization is. Price is merely a collateral damage. In order to supress centralization, the company in question has to prevent hoarding on an early stage of adoption by controlling the supply in order to make sure that hoarders are not getting the critical mass of XRP. This does not contradict with Ripple wanting the price to go higher, it just means healthy ecosystem is more important than short-term profits. This will never be officially confirmed but you can read between the lines. And no, you definitely don’t want to inflate the price so that 1 XRP is traded as an infinitely large representation of value, it would create too much volatility. 

Unfortunately @galgitron is not active at the Forum after certain events in 2017, he could have explained this better than I do.

I also don't really understand the centralization argument behind holding the supply.  If simply holding the supply is centralization, then XRP is extremely centralized.  I always thought centralization referred to the control of the validators so that no one party could manipulate the blockchain code.  In that respect XRP is extremely decentralized (Ripple owns 7%), but just a few miners in China own the vast majority of validation in BTC, making it centralized.  In theory, if Bill Gates bought us all out of our XRP so that the only holders of XRP were him and Ripple, the coin would still be decentralized because neither of them would have a controlling stake in validation of the ledger.

@Hodor Sorry to bother you, but can you help me out here?  I'm not understanding Lamberth's assertion about inflation in Ripple's business strategy despite Galgitron's well put together blog post.  What am I not getting?

Edited by Kalarie
I've read the info wrong plenty of times before so asking if Hodor would help me out again

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16 minutes ago, Kalarie said:

I also don't really understand the centralization argument behind holding the supply.  If simply holding the supply is centralization, then XRP is extremely centralized.  I always thought centralization referred to the control of the validators so that no one party could manipulate the blockchain code.  In that respect XRP is extremely decentralized (Ripple owns 7%), but just a few miners in China own the vast majority of validation in BTC, making it centralized.  In theory, if Bill Gates bought us all out of our XRP so that the only holders of XRP were him and Ripple, the coin would still be decentralized because neither of them would have a controlling stake in validation of the ledger.

@Hodor Sorry to bother you, but can you help me out here?  I'm not understanding Lamberth's assertion about inflation in Ripple's business strategy despite Galgitron's well put together blog post.  What am I not getting?

Sorry for the confusion, I did not mean centralization of the Ledger, we were talking about the supply. And yes, obviously the supply of XRP is extremely centralized for now.

Edited by Lamberth

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The centralized supply is only an issue for XRP detractors because it’s a concise sound bite. Decentralization is a rallying cry for crypto, never mind that BTC is centralized both from a mining and ownership perspective, at least the vast majorities of BTC are owned by wallets that aren’t linked to identified people rather than a US corporation.

It’s clutching at pearls as far as I gather

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5 hours ago, Kalarie said:

 

@Hodor Sorry to bother you, but can you help me out here?  I'm not understanding Lamberth's assertion about inflation in Ripple's business strategy despite Galgitron's well put together blog post.  What am I not getting?

I'm honestly not sure I'm following the discussion completely...

If this is Galgitron's blog, just know that I haven't read the blog in question; however, I glanced at this quoted piece:

Quote

“Not only is it Ripple's specific targeting of banks to be major XRP holders (similar to how the government allocates freshly printed money to banks when it inflates fiat currency), but it's Ripple's ability to 'dictate' the rate of XRP distribution that allows them to somewhat emulate 'inflation' for XRP; in effect, dampening the force of hoarding by flooding the market with new XRP at rates commensurate with the goal to suppress centralization of XRP. "

"suppress centralization of XRP" left me absolutely clueless. 

I wouldn't depend on a blogger - even myself - to determine what Ripple's strategy is with XRP. 

Instead, I'd look to many statements by JoelKatz or Miguel Vias.  The topic of 'how is Ripple going to manage its XRP' has been bandied about more times than I can remember.  This is what prompted the decision to place Ripple's XRP in escrow.  In addition, Ripple has consistently been putting  that XRP back in escrow when unsold or unused - this is tracked by the community easily in publicly-available transactions. 

The release curve is projected to last up to thirty years, and seems to match the same curve as an increasing difficulty curve of proof-of-work systems:

xrp_release_schedule.thumb.png.709f2150d4393555460da3026e3d1f58.png

XRP gets into the hands of banks and financial institutions one of two ways:  1) Direct sales if they wish to hold XRP while using xRapid, or 2) Dynamic purchases on an exchange if they don't wish to hold XRP as they use xRapid.  There's no need to 'worry' about ownership decentralization, unless I'm missing something. 

Regardless, as XRP is used at scale, bank's holdings will not be enough over time, and they will need to purchase from the open market IMO. 

Anyways, as I said, I may not be tracking the entire convo, so feel free to clarify or elaborate. 

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16 minutes ago, Hodor said:

"suppress centralization of XRP" left me absolutely clueless. 

I took it as Galgitron meaning centralisation of XRP by banks/stakeholders hoarding XRP, thus potentially having a high ownership percentage (therefore being able to affect the market).

Ripples ability to distribute XRP to the open market can then dampen this type of centralisation. 

Thats not my view on what is or will happen, only what I interpreted from the quote...

Edited by WorldXRP

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8 hours ago, WorldXRP said:

I took it as Galgitron meaning centralisation of XRP by banks/stakeholders hoarding XRP, thus potentially having a high ownership percentage (therefore being able to affect the market).

Ripples ability to distribute XRP to the open market can then dampen this type of centralisation. 

Thats not my view on what is or will happen, only what I interpreted from the quote...

Ah - okay I see then.

Then, no I don't agree whatsoever with this assessment.  First, off topic, but a tangential point: Each XRP can be split into one million drops (or more if validators agree)  There is no concept of 'shortage' of units to trade.  That's an entirely false concern.  And that's not the way markets find equilibrium with resources of limited quantity anyway.

The only real concern is if the open market believes a large holder would flood the market - XRP's ecosystem needs an active market for XRP, hence the real reason for the escrow described here https://ripple.com/insights/ripple-to-place-55-billion-xrp-in-escrow-to-ensure-certainty-into-total-xrp-supply/  This is a real concern, and hence why Ripple took pains to communicate about it no less than five or six times formally.

Ripple doesn't want any one holder to be able to affect the market, which is why they put 'resale restrictions' on those that they sell wholesale, and also the owners / founders shares.  For all of the FUD about dumping, the only dumping I've seen has been from speculators. 

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On 8/24/2018 at 4:18 AM, OzAlphaWolf said:

I agree with this. But we will see utility demand grow organically and it won't come just from Ripple customers. There's Coil, Xpring and other businesses starting to build on the XRPL. But I am expecting a significant ramp up from Ripple partners during 2019 and definitely 2020. So 3 years from now, 2021, I think the price will be exceptionally healthy in comparison to this year.

2020 I want to retire, so you better be right.

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