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Maybe Futures are actually manipulating the crypto market?


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Interesting post on reddit (from yesterday) :



If this is true, we'll see prices go up over the next few weeks if Futures are betting on a higher BTC price.  We're now at the floor price that's been tested twice.  The majority of Futures bets are likely to anticipate a higher BTC price.  I know the counterargument is that "Futures are a tiny market" - not if they have whales at their disposal (quote below is from the same person who wrote the reddit post above):-
 

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Regarding volume, there are very clear markers of fast and deliberate dumps within the past week: at least 5 highly irregular volume spikes if you bother to look at the charts (I am using 30min candles on BTC/USDT on Binance). Those 5 volumes correspond to sell orders of 2.2K bitcoins, 6.2K+ bitcoins, 4.3K bitcoins, 2.8K bitcoins, and 2.6K bitcoins respectively which are notably an entire order of magnitude above that of normal trading volume (typically fluctuating between 200 and 600 bitcoins). Sell orders of that size can most definitely have a large and fast impact, so I'm not really sure what you are talking about.

I do not mean to offend, but you cannot honestly believe that whales are not manipulating the price. Assuming they are, it would be naive to think that they are not also toying with the futures - they have the disposable money to afford that risk and many also have legitimate capital investment experience, meaning they actually know what they are doing (unlike most of the popular people doing TA). If nothing else, consider that they have more to gain through futures meddling than the direct buying and selling of coins, so why would they not do it in such an unregulated market?

 

No doubt since Futures opened (to trade BTC) the crypto market HAS moved up and down in very deliberate fashion that's always coincided with Futures bets (as a whole).

More info on this theory (and I know, it's not new, but we have more supporting data that correlates with Futures markets) > https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/14/reason-behind-the-recent-bitcoin-sell-off-may-have-just-been-uncovered.html

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"Bitcoin sees dramatic price changes around CBOE futures expirations. This was something flagged by Justin Saslaw at Raptor Group. We compiled some of the data and this indeed seems to be true," Lee wrote Thursday. "Overall, bitcoin has fallen 18 percent in the 10 days prior to CBOE contract expiration."

Lee added the two exceptions were in February when prices ran up nearly 15 percent into expiration (he attributes this to tax selling), and April when prices were up 16 percent.

Note that February and April are alternate months to the bear months.  Now we are in June and at the recent historic floor price of BTC.    When I think of the direction BTC will move in during the next few weeks, I can only think of the song by Yazz and the Plastic Population. 

Edited by 2ndtimearound
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There's a lot of fear and despair around, AND we are at the recent (last 6 months) floor price of BTC.  In other words, things are looking good (no sarcasm) - looks very much like the bottom.

And here's the thing: isn't it actually easier and more profitable to manipulate a market UPWARDS when you're at a historically low price (last 6 months)? Market manipulators would have a hard time drilling the price below $6000 IMO.  They will hit the density of long-term HODLers who are more hard to shake out (ones that bought at cheaper prices).  They're more mature investors that have been around for years (hence their lower prices) and have held through previous bear markets.  Sure, some will sell, but not in the numbers of short-term investors who bought high.  Factor in also those that bought high and haven't sold yet - at this point they're thinking "welp, I have 80% loss, what's the point in selling now? I might as well hold - upside benefits far outweigh the 10%-20% (actual zero value of the crypto!) risk of holding further.  

There's an elastic limit to the market.  We are close to the elastic limit of the bear market (IMO).  Having said that, if Futures is manipulating the market, then we might be stuck in this pattern for some time.  We could see XRP at 90c in 3 weeks (BTC near $10K), then manipulation may drive the market back to where we are today. 

Edited by 2ndtimearound
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When assessing the difference in short and long positions of large and small players, it should be borne in mind that a short position in the bitcoin futures market does not necessarily mean that the trader’s forecast for the price of the underlying asset is negative.

The net short position held by the bigger players went up from 1,829 to 2,079 contracts over the period, whereas long positions declined from 2,787 to 2,564 contracts while short positions remained almost flat, rising from 4,616 to 4,643 contracts. The net long position held by the institutional investors was up from 110 to 125 contracts.

 

Edited by kiwixrp
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8 minutes ago, kiwixrp said:

When assessing the difference in short and long positions of large and small players, it should be borne in mind that a short position in the bitcoin futures market does not necessarily mean that the trader’s forecast for the price of the underlying asset is negative.

The net short position held by the bigger players went up from 1,829 to 2,079 contracts over the period, whereas long positions declined from 2,787 to 2,564 contracts while short positions remained almost flat, rising from 4,616 to 4,643 contracts. The net long position held by the institutional investors was up from 110 to 125 contracts.

 

What do you make of the timing of BTC rising and falling, inline with expiry dates of contracts?

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They'll break BTC, at one point, the price will reach and cross a point where it is no longer profitable to mine BTC. It's just a great way to kill , suffocate BTC.

   

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6 hours ago, 2ndtimearound said:

... Factor in also those that bought high and haven't sold yet - at this point they're thinking "welp, I have 80% loss, what's the point in selling now? I might as well hold - upside benefits far outweigh the 10%-20% (actual zero value of the crypto!) risk of holding further. 

That's me right there! Down 75% as of today. 

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9 minutes ago, ed1 said:

They'll break BTC, at one point, the price will reach and cross a point where it is no longer profitable to mine BTC. It's just a great way to kill , suffocate BTC.

   

What I don’t understand is BTC used to be sub $2000. If it could be mined profitably then, why can’t it be again?

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13 minutes ago, WhentheBoat_ComesIn said:

Stay firm. I am of the opinion that you will see green before Autumn

Had to give you a like for being at "666".

I'm not sure if I actually agree with you, I haven't studied BTC enough, LOL

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4 hours ago, lucid99 said:

That's me right there! Down 75% as of today. 

You've also passed the point of no return (IMO), so you get to enjoy a bizzare sense of freedom: it's not worth selling now, the downside is only another 25% for XRP to go to zero.  Might as well hold.  The stick-or-twist dilemma really bites hard when you're around 20% to 30% down and you're not fully trusting the fundamentals.

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4 hours ago, ed1 said:

They'll break BTC, at one point, the price will reach and cross a point where it is no longer profitable to mine BTC. It's just a great way to kill , suffocate BTC.

   

I dont see any reason why whales, wallstreet, hedge funds, whoever you think the big players are, would want to kill bitcoin. It is/can be a huge money maker. Why would they want to suffocate it to the point where its not even profitable for miners?

I can definitely see them using futures to profit off of short positions and manipulating the price as it gets close to expiration dates. Its been done in other commodity markets for decades. Yet they dont want to completely kill the markets

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