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When does everyone admit they were wrong?

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21 hours ago, Kalarie said:

You should read my past posts and you would get it.  I treat crypto as a VC risk level investment.  I only put in throw away money, 1% of savings on something different every year, and it's not intended to be cashed out for 10-20 years, with upwards of 95% of the investments going to $0.  It's that 5% that 'moon' that make the strategy worth it.  Also, read "barbell investing" for more insight.

My point was that in both 2007 and 2011, I put my VC money into something other than Bitcoin, and got burned via opportunity loss.  So last year I make the bet on XRP, which means I'm not selling for 10-20 more years outside of it mooning to legit life changing levels, and if it goes to $0 instead, it doesn't hurt the long term retirement plan.

But you're not wrong.  VC type investments are so risky that they basically are "hope" couched in what you should feel are reasonable business goals/methods/strategy etc.  Not quite the same as a lottery ticket, but not far off.

I respect the way you operate. There is always "hope" associated with any investment. It's human nature. 

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I'm not sure that we have to admit we were wrong... but I have the feeling that for short to mid term (1/2 years) the crypto in which you invest doesn't matter.

It's all about bitcoin and bitcoin and bitcoin... and it's not ready to change.

Go on XRP or whatever you want, you always will have 8500 sats or others depending in what you've invested.

Public is not ready for the split between BTC and others coins...

The forum should be "BTC price" and not "XRP price"...

Edited by Thomas666

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14 hours ago, aavkk said:

Awesome, thanks for the thoughtful reply and sharing your experiences.  It sounds like having a solid network of people not only to siphon and filter ideas but also to help sharpen your own skills is key.  I have this in the real estate space but the idea of early stage investing is interesting.  And speaking of start-ups what are your thoughts on Xpring?  In a way it almost diversifies our single investment into XRP, would it not?  

Yeah the networking is very key.  Most of the time my friends that know about stuff early are professors doing work at UT, A&M, and MIT, and I know a couple alums of Stanford and Berkley that keep in contact with their professors there.  Otherwise it's meeting people at conferences.  Every industry has special conferences for new ideas, or competitions.  Of course, if you're wealthy enough, hire a financial advisor that specializes in the VC space and they'll get sent notices of companies wanting funding all the time.  That's a higher level than I've been willing to jump in at though.

Xpring is a big confidence booster for the future of XRP.  But it's not just that, it's all of the efforts on multiple platforms to create use cases for XRP by Ripple management that keeps me positive.  I don't understand how all of them work, but I get Xpring's initiative.  If we see Ripple stop supporting those things before they've made significant progress, that would be a red flag.

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On 6/11/2018 at 6:10 AM, Mods_are_tyrants said:

No people flio when it falls 80%+ from ATH and the crypto space is eroding.

You mean like it did in June last year when dropped from 44 to 12 cents or when it dropped from 9 cents to 2.7? I held through all that as well while your predecessors told me that was the end 

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On 6/10/2018 at 9:10 PM, Mods_are_tyrants said:

No people flio when it falls 80%+ from ATH and the crypto space is eroding.

Precisely

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On 6/13/2018 at 9:52 PM, Kalarie said:

Yeah the networking is very key.  Most of the time my friends that know about stuff early are professors doing work at UT, A&M, and MIT, and I know a couple alums of Stanford and Berkley that keep in contact with their professors there.  Otherwise it's meeting people at conferences.  Every industry has special conferences for new ideas, or competitions.  Of course, if you're wealthy enough, hire a financial advisor that specializes in the VC space and they'll get sent notices of companies wanting funding all the time.  That's a higher level than I've been willing to jump in at though.

Xpring is a big confidence booster for the future of XRP.  But it's not just that, it's all of the efforts on multiple platforms to create use cases for XRP by Ripple management that keeps me positive.  I don't understand how all of them work, but I get Xpring's initiative.  If we see Ripple stop supporting those things before they've made significant progress, that would be a red flag.

Yep.  This is all about BTC.  A low BTC is good news in the longer-term....time to accumulate and wait for the next bull-run.  I don't believe there will not be another BTC bull-run.  There will be.  And even if there isn't, there's xRapid utility volume to look forward to.  I think we have 3 or 4 more boring months ahead of us though.....

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1 hour ago, 2ndtimearound said:

Yep.  This is all about BTC.  A low BTC is good news in the longer-term....time to accumulate and wait for the next bull-run.  I don't believe there will not be another BTC bull-run.  There will be.  And even if there isn't, there's xRapid utility volume to look forward to.  I think we have 3 or 4 more boring months ahead of us though.....

It would be interesting to see if there is a correlation between Fomo market wise and the periods when people get back to their families and friends and talk about these markets.

I would forecast July or October when it comes to significant upward movement. This said, I'm done trying to predict accurately when big moves will be made, because XRP is obviously undervalued at the moment. BTC is purely speculative imo and my knowledge is limited at some extent so I'm not the one to listen to about it. 

Dogecoin = best coin no matter what. 

Also, don't look at price\ATH without looking at price\priceY2Y

Edited by Guest

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I think everybody forgot that BTC was at 1300 USD then fell back to 200 USD, then surged to 20000!

I mean, if you were smart and lucky you could have sold at 1300 and bought back at 200, but even holding from 1300 was a nice return ;)

As I wrote in another post I think there will be at least two more "mainstream" waves, i.e. when cryptos will be more mainstream in some continents (africa, south america, part of asia, part of europe). It might be in 5 years, who knows.

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@tulo I would have bought a bitcoin at 200$ just like I bought a litecoin, for the satisfaction of holding one full coin, not a fraction of it.

I know it does not make sense mathematically, but it has a great psychological impact on buyers. 

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2 minutes ago, Johnsnow77 said:

@tulo I would have bought a bitcoin at 200$ just like I bought a litecoin, for the satisfaction of holding one full coin, not a fraction of it.

I know it does not make sense mathematically, but it has a great psychological impact on buyers. 

Ehehe yeah I know. The problem is that there are 20M bitcoin around, but there are much more than 20M people that want a "full" BTC, that's why the price is so high :)

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1 minute ago, tulo said:

Ehehe yeah I know. The problem is that there are 20M bitcoin around, but there are much more than 20M people that want a "full" BTC, that's why the price is so high :)

True. The problematic, imo, is that the value of BTC is the value the market is willing to give it. Could it be 300,000$ or 5,000$. The market will tell us soon enough I believe. 

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On 6/10/2018 at 11:25 PM, PG1 said:

I think that's a fair viewpoint. I think we did see a retail speculative bubble.  Aided in part by CME futures hype.  But I think it's clear that most institutional money was on the sidelines. My guess is there will be an even bigger bull run at some point. Some regulatory uncertainty and the lack of custody solutions have thrown a wrench in things.  But there is a lot of money that will flow into this space.  There is no way the biggest players are going to let this opportunity come and go without ever having skin in the game.  That bubble scared away a lot of retail speculators - I agree. But you can be sure it got a lot of institutional investors attention.

Well said! thx. This is the meaningful said here in this thread so far. Very well said. I am part of the institutional investors and once they add it to their check-list they don't go all in but slowly build infrastructure to take advantage of future oppurtunities. The last thing needed is decent exchanges with high speed robust connectivity and institutional custody and then we will be off to the races.

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On 6/12/2018 at 5:38 PM, Kalarie said:

Every investment is a little different but i'll highlight some I've tried or passed on and you can laugh at the reasons.

VC/Angel funding is very difficult due to the lack of company financials, so 99% of the time I base it on two things, how well I understand the idea, and how strong I think the management team is at bringing an idea to market.  I'm a monetary economist by education, but I have experience in many commodity/energy fields, as well as tech fields, chemistry, physics, etc.  That education severely biases what I'm willing to invest in.

In Ripple's case, I would say they are much further along than other VC investments I looked at, and they have a higher probability of success.  However, I missed the opportunity to be an actual angel fund investor, and to be in the VC sphere at their size requires security qualifications I don't have, so I picked up XRP instead.  My view on that is that they have a solid and aggressive management team, and they are solving a real world use case without running in opposition of established governments.  That makes them the most viable Crypto in my book, and I believe they had a reasonable shot at creating enough use of XRP to drive its price up.  Believe me, I would rather be a stock holder right now though.

My latest VC investment was into a small firm from Boston called molecular energy.  They are focusing on packing water molecules into small crystalline tubes that can conduct ambient electrons that are spun off the molecule as it hits the wall of the crystalline shape.  This would essentially be a very low voltage battery that would never die (think ability to power an RF scanner) as it basically converts ambient heat temperature into energy.  Works better in warm climates.

My investment before that was to a team that presented at a Smart Cities conference in Austin, TX a couple of years ago.  They hadn't trademarked a name yet, but their idea was to 3D print an antenna that was designed to capture energy off the movement of radio waves all around us.  Specifically they demonstrated capturing energy from the wifi signal in the demo room.  Their first design was an antenna that was too large to be practical for more than powering a home's fire alarm, and it was also low voltage only, but the cost to print the antenna was already down to something like a nickel each.  I could see something like that being worked into future building designs.

I had a shot at google with a group right before it went public, and I choose not to buy it for two reasons.  One, I didn't understand the technology, and two, I didn't understand the revenue model because yahoo showed ads on the front page but google did not.  #fail I know

I did a VC round into a company called Nanogen.  Their focus was on developing micro computers that could be injected into a patient and collectively perform surgical work.  They had developed a bio marker for Alzheimer's, and they had a 100% success rate of curing the rats they tested on.  I was really hopeful on this one because their method would have changed the medical world as we know it.  However, either they weren't honest about their tests, or they just ran out of money, because they never got approval from the FDA to perform human testing before going bankrupt, and only their bio marker patent was bought out of bankruptcy. 

I've had a natural gas drilling company I liked because of the land play, but the fracking boom driving down the gas price killed them quick.

I actually took a flier on VC funding a local German restaurant once.  They actually paid off the initial investment.  Typically that industry takes 5 years to break even, but they turned a profit in 3.  Then in year 5 the chef I had bet on (who also owned 60% of the business), ran afoul of the law while visiting Dallas, got his visa revoked, and was sent packing back to Germany.  Place was sold off right after.

I've got other various examples, like passing on BTC, or investing some money in a lady with Monavie just because I thought she could sell the product well, but I'll say that 90% of the time I find opportunities at tech challenges like the Smart Cities event, or friends of mine that have come across them and found them interesting. 

Hope that answers your questions.  Also, if it helps, the money I made on the German place was enough to pay off all of the investments like these I have ever made by itself.  If only that one had been a continued success, I'd be considering retiring already.  That's what makes these things worth it.  You only have to be right once, but you're only risking money that you don't need in the long term.  All of my other investments are in stock index funds and bonds right now.

This is a true investor. When investing shoot for outliers on the right tail without pulling the expectation below 0. That is all you need to do , oh! and start young if possible :) , You have about 2 to 3 5 year cycles to make real money before you are 50 years, after that money is still nice !! but not so much fun. 

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