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JCCollins

The Final Phase of Desperation

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8 minutes ago, JCCollins said:

The shift is happening now.  The current system has reached its max capacity to provide liquidity in a sustainable manner.  I would even suggest that the shift began back in 2008.  The new framework is emerging from within the old.  Remnants of the old will linger for a while though.  It will be hard to pinpoint an exact moment of transition, but that really won't matter.  This is less about predictions and more about understanding the most viable and functional method of addressing the unsustainability of the exhausted system.  

Disclaimer, haven’t read your post yet. I’m sure it’s amazing and look forward to reading it in full.

i see current methods of currency as instruments of power for governments, both good and bad. I believe new government curriencies will be old fiat issued in new forms but I don’t see them going away. Wiemar Deutschmarks are a classic example of an instant switch to escape inflation run amuck. I think that is what you’ll see across the globe and only new currencies will be created/adopted if regime changes occur or new countries created. I think I’ll never see the end of USD and I’m 35. 

Edited by Raz

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6 minutes ago, aavkk said:

WOW!  That is a very bold prediction and a huge devaluation!  It's going to certainly be very interesting to see how this all plays out.  

Consider that the devaluation of the USD is exactly what the Treasury wants.  More affordable exports mean increased economic growth as manufacturing increases.  This will decrease the trade deficit and lower the debt-to-GDP ratio.  It will be better for America.

Edited by JCCollins

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Just now, JCCollins said:

Consider that the devaluation of the USD is exactly what the Treasury wants.  More affordable exports mean increased economic growth as manufacturing increased.  This will decrease the trade deficit and lower the debt-to-GDP ration.  It will be better for America.

You bring up a fantastic point.  I'm always asking myself who's interests are aligned with certain outcomes.  While what you just proposed seems to benefit the US Fed in the short-term what about the long-term competitive advantage globally they would appear to be giving up?  Or do we even still have a competitive advantage globally in your view?

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1 hour ago, invest2lose said:

does this mean we shouldn't even think about cashing out to usd and just buy our dream homes with xrp's?

Golden rule of investing is diversification.  I'm looking to come up with a strategy that balances risk while also shooting for the moon on XRP.

Only thing I'd hate more than selling XRP too early, is not selling and then having a black swan happen and knock me to the ground.

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Question: XRP will start off as an international bridge asset, but won't it eventually (and probably quickly) transition to international reserve asset status? Why trade-into other assets when XRP is so flexible, like the USD is currently. I understand that liquidity is a pre-requisite. But assuming liquidity is there, XRP could be worth a LOT. 

Interesting article you wrote. Please keep posting new ones on xrpchat (as you have been) so we stay updated.

(small typo on Hollywood "Movies"). 

 

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2 hours ago, invest2lose said:

does this mean we shouldn't even think about cashing out to usd and just buy our dream homes with xrp's?

XRP will be increasing in value as demand increases and supply decreases.  USD will be decreasing in value as demand decreases.  The problem the US will have is what to do with the excess dollars which have accumulated.  Buying back through increased trade is one method.  But in order for that to work, it has to be devalued to allow exports to increase.  Once the cycle of devaluation takes hold you will be much better off holding XRP.   

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3 hours ago, mm34505 said:

Thanks for the read BG123

 

What do you think EOY Price is gonna be for XRP

I'm not BG123. Sorry to let you down.  And making price predictions would only take away from the intent of what I'm sharing. The value of XRP will be what it will be.  Focus on the process and transition.  It is both fascinating and world-changing. Money comes and goes.  But not all people have had the opportunity to live through such a period of transformation. 

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Actually, America will become more competitive again, as it was before 1944 when it had the worlds largest trade surplus.  Once dollar use started to expand internationally America's trade surplus slowly started to erode into a trade deficit.  There are reasons for that.  In simplified terms, because the USD was the agreed upon primary reserve currency, any nations which wanted to trade internationally (all of them) would need to hold USD on reserve.  As demand for USD increased the money supply expanded to accommodate.  But once the inflation wheel starts to turn, especially for the international reserve currency (which is in fact just a domestic currency of one nation) there is massive downward pressure for devaluation.  But because of the vast foreign holdings (investments) of USD, the value of the currency must be maintained within a manageable trade margin.   
This is the hardest part to understand.  The dollars exchange rate arrangements with the currencies of other nations are designed to maintain the dollar's valuation for international use.  It is after all the bridge asset used for exchanges.  The more the USD money supply expands, the more accumulated in the foreign exchange reserve accounts around the world.  Other nations have to maintain the exchange rate regime with the USD by devaluing their own currencies.  The best example of this is China and the renminbi, or yuan, whatever you prefer. America needs to keep expanding its sovereign debt (debt-based money supply) and having the Federal Reserve and central banks of other nations, such as the People's Bank of China, hold that debt. But since the dollar can't sustain the level of inflation which it creates (because of its international function) that inflation is in essence exported to other nations through the exchange rate arrangements.  China is able to take on massive amounts of Treasury debt and in turn devalues its own currency against the dollar and sells cheap manufactured goods back into America.  But this can't work in reverse because of the valuation disparity between the two currencies.  Chinese can't afford to purchase American made goods because the artificial exchange rate makes those American exports too expensive.  This is why over the decade's more and more American companies moved to China so they could ensure their products were still affordable around the world.  America exporting its dollar inflation around the world caused deflationary pressure back home.  The only way to offset some of the deflation was to increase the domestic credit supply (from dollars coming back home from trade clearing) which is what led to credit market growth, cheap money, the mortgage and banking crisis in 2008, etc..  Other western nations followed the same pattern in proportion to the international use of their own currencies.  The USD was by far the most dominant, but others were also used in limited capacities.
There was so much USD capital that additional financial products had to be developed to keep the whole system afloat.  Stock, bonds, crude sales, derivatives, etc., all served to create additional dollar demand outside of the exchange rate arrangements.  Every time there is upward pressure on dollar valuation, mainly because the Fed increases interest rates (which provide a better return to investors) it puts downward pressure on the emerging markets, such as China.  It's the emerging markets which hold the most USD debt and exported inflation. This is what caused the Asian currency crisis in 1998.
The Trump doctrine is all about transitioning the dollar from its international role, updating trade deals and exchange rate arrangements, and bringing American factories back, which will increase jobs, increase GDP, lower the debt-to-GDP ratio, and "Make America Great Again". Understanding all of the above was what allowed me to make the accurate prediction of Trump winning.  I made that prediction after he announced his candidacy and introduced his campaign platform.  It fits perfectly with the direction the international monetary system is taking. 
If the above monetary and exchange framework isn't changed, a further crisis will develop.  This transition has to happen, and Ripple, along with XRP, provides the best path forward.  This is why I am so confident in Ripple and XRP.  Understanding the above information, and grasping exactly what service Ripple is attempting to provide, can only draw one reasonable conclusion.   
Ripple and XRP will be great and America will be competitive.   
I'll probably have to reread that 5 times

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49 minutes ago, JCCollins said:

Chinese can't afford to purchase American made goods because the artificial exchange rate makes those American exports too expensive. 

What does America produce again? Don't remember last time I saw a "Made in America" item. China produces almost everything the US consume. It may be our tech theyre using, but they have the factories. 

I'm more concerned about China ungpegging the yuan from the dollar, letting it float freely and thereby increasing it's value, and making their middle class a lot richer and able to consume the iPhone and other products they produce, which they can't do now. This leaves America out in the cold with skyrocketing consumer goods prices and a non-existant manufacturing sector. And factories don't just pop up from one day to the other. It's gonna take at least a decade to build up the manufacturing sector.

China would lose out on the resulting devaluation of their USD holdings, but it won't be even close to as bad for them as it is for the US. I believe China is still a creditor nation. 

If China believes the US is going to pay their debts through inflation, they may just take the path above at some point. 

Also, what if China decides to back the yuan by gold? They've been buying up and hoarding the world's gold for a long time now. They're the biggest producer of gold in the world, and not 1 ounce of it is allowed to leave China. 

Just my 2 xrp

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Liquidity and digital autonomy. XRP and the decentralized exchange model operating at top efficiency influenced my prioritization of Zerps from day one. I expect the popularity of XRP to soar when the first ripplenet bank deals with a liquidity crisis. Fast liquid assets are the true gold standard.

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10 minutes ago, xrp_py said:

What does America produce again? Don't remember last time I saw a "Made in America" item. China produces almost everything the US consume. It may be our tech theyre using, but they have the factories. 

I'm more concerned about China ungpegging the yuan from the dollar, letting it float freely and thereby increasing it's value, and making their middle class a lot richer and able to consume the iPhone and other products they produce, which they can't do now. This leaves America out in the cold with skyrocketing consumer goods prices and a non-existant manufacturing sector. And factories don't just pop up from one day to the other. It's gonna take at least a decade to build up the manufacturing sector.

China would lose out on the resulting devaluation of their USD holdings, but it won't be even close to as bad for them as it is for the US. I believe China is still a creditor nation. 

If China believes the US is going to pay their debts through inflation, they may just take the path above at some point. 

Also, what if China decides to back the yuan by gold? They've been buying up and hoarding the world's gold for a long time now. They're the biggest producer of gold in the world, and not 1 ounce of it is allowed to leave China. 

Just my 2 xrp

"What does America produce again?"

 

 We will become top exporter of Oil. Already shaping up 

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