Jump to content
Spekul8

State of Things 2018 and beyond

Recommended Posts

On the other hand we all know that any startup is an extremely risky investment. But you can’t say VCs (especially when investing on an early stage) are speculating on startups, they are investing into startups.

Apologies for off-topic. This is a subject I discussed with some colleagues many times. I know it can turn into a Holy war pretty quickly, probably we should stop here.

Edited by Lamberth

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Lamberth said:

We can disagree and argue about XRP but you are wrong when saying shareholders = investors. This is a common misconception and not all shareholders are investors by their nature.

Many peope/companies buy stocks just to dump their investment after a certain event (often in a few days/weeks/months). Take Tesla and divide the daily volume by mcap. This is a perfect example of a stock which is driven by speculators and we can’t be serious when saying that all shareholders at any given point in time have invested into Tesla as a business. This is simply not true.

I agree that not all those who buy an underlying asset have the intentions to ride it for a long time and some may hold for ten years and some for one day. However, there is no difference between the legal definition of an investor for a decade or a shareholder for a minute.  If you look at class-action lawsuits against big companies which are publically traded, you would see that they specify a period of holding dates.  They do not ask whether the person holding it for a minute, a trade of a news event or flipped it as a day trade.  

From your posts, it seems that you are very attached emotionally to XRP and I assume that it is one of the major investments in your portfolio. I do hope it works out for you. But, despite the gains I hold, and the gains realized in the recent rally, I do not have "love" for XRP.  Liquidity is **** poor, tied to BTC, SEC is knocking at its door, etc. If I had a chance to convert XRP and invest directly in a publically traded Ripple, I would do that in a heart bit with an immediate liquidation of all XRPS.  I believe in the company very much and sad that I am limited to a secondary market that Korean exchanges do whatever they want with it. 

Edited by Spekul8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting thread.  I feel that XRP is a speculative investment.  It's an investment because based on the current fundamentals it should take at least a sizable chunk of the market within its primary use case.  Looking at all the very public developments Ripple has made toward fostering the XRP ecosystem towards success and comparing that with a spin on a roulette wheel is ignorant.  Additionally, projects such as Xpring and Coil truly cement my confidence long-term due to diversification within the same asset.  That being said its also speculative because there are unknown and unforeseeable challenges ahead when displacing trillions of dollars and a lot of power being shifted.  Who knows what the fallout is from these shifts in power and money? I hope XRP isn't displaced because those currently in power (largest banks who control SWIFT) are successful in working against XRP.  The most obvious path in my option would be them influencing the SEC to declare it a security.  It's so obviously not but with all that power and money on the line who knows whats happening behind closed doors.  Every day I think that risk is less and less though.  But at the end of the day all the different hurdles and risks are subjective and therefore impossible to quantify.  Therefore its speculative but dammit if its not the best investment in the crypto space!  

Edited by aavkk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, aavkk said:

Interesting thread.  I feel that XRP is a speculative investment.  It's an investment because based on the current fundamentals it should take at least a sizable chunk of the market within its primary use case.  Looking at all the very public developments Ripple has made toward fostering the XRP ecosystem towards success and comparing that with a spin on a roulette wheel is ignorant.  Additionally, projects such as Xpring and Coil truly cement my confidence long-term due to diversification within the same asset.  That being said its also speculative because there are unknown and unforeseeable challenges ahead when displacing trillions of dollars and a lot of power being shifted.  Who knows what the fallout is from these shifts in power and money? I hope XRP isn't displaced because those currently in power (largest banks who control SWIFT) are successful in working against XRP.  The most obvious path in my option would be them influencing the SEC to declare it a security.  It's so obviously not but with all that power and money on the line who knows whats happening behind closed doors.  Every day I think that risk is less and less though.  But at the end of the day all the different hurdles and risks are subjective and therefore impossible to quantify.  Therefore its speculative but dammit if its not the best investment in the crypto space!  

XRP (and crypto in general) is a classical example of a highly speculative investment. Not surprisingly crypto often mentioned in the latest articles about the Barbell strategy. I could guess that the confusion might be in the combination of those words and whether the person in question emphasizes the first aspect or the second one. My only disagreement with @Spekul8 is that I believe you can be either investor or speculator while investing into a speculative asset. 

Edited by Lamberth

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Spekul8 said:

I agree that not all those who buy an underlying asset have the intentions to ride it for a long time and some may hold for ten years and some for one day. However, there is no difference between the legal definition of an investor for a decade or a shareholder for a minute.  If you look at class-action lawsuits against big companies which are publically traded, you would see that they specify a period of holding dates.  They do not ask whether the person holding it for a minute, a trade of a news event or flipped it as a day trade.  

From your posts, it seems that you are very attached emotionally to XRP and I assume that it is one of the major investments in your portfolio. I do hope it works out for you. But, despite the gains I hold, and the gains realized in the recent rally, I do not have "love" for XRP.  Liquidity is **** poor, tied to BTC, SEC is knocking at its door, etc. If I had a chance to convert XRP and invest directly in a publically traded Ripple, would do that is a heart bit with an immediate liquidation of all XRPS.  I believe in the company very much and sad that I am limited to a secondary market that Korean exchanges do whatever they want with it. 

Oh, I am absolutely emotionally attached to all of my investments (and no, XRP is not a sifgnificant part of the portfolio). Does not mean I cry when an investment fails (which happend more than once) or hold all investments forever. It just means I believe in the cause I invested into and trying to invest in things I percieve as good. There were quite a few times when I decided not to invest into “bad” causes (again, subjective, we are all humans) even though the probability of high returns was promising. What I am trying to say, you can’t rely on the risk/return ratio as your only decision making mechanism. This is a slippery way and you might find that your moral boundaries are not as strong as you’d hoped. One little step at a time and you might find yourself telling the interviewer “I did not do all those bad things this compony does, I am merely a shareholder”. Not a figure of speach, I am now talking about my ex-collegue from the 90s who believed that money was the only denominator.

I would have invested into publically traded Ripple too. This is a hypothetical scenario we should not spend too much time talking about though :) and I would not have converted my XRP into Ripple stocks, those are different things. There is a probability that Ripple might fail with XRP being a great success. We should not be talking about this hypothetical scenario in lenght either.

Edited by Lamberth

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, aavkk said:

That being said its also speculative because there are unknown and unforeseeable challenges ahead when displacing trillions of dollars and a lot of power being shifted.  Who knows what the fallout is from these shifts in power and money? I hope XRP isn't displaced because those currently in power (largest banks who control SWIFT) are successful in working against XRP.  The most obvious path in my option would be them influencing the SEC to declare it a security.  It's so obviously not but with all that power and money on the line who knows whats happening behind closed doors.  

This is exactly my biggest fear with XRP. E.g. the case mentioned in some other thread on this forum, as well as in the film Inside Job, where someone representing the big banks called someone on SEC saying "stop what you are doing" .. I'm sure you know the case, sorry about not being able to memorize it precisely.

Having watched Inside Job just like two weeks ago, it was eye opening for me, how strongly the big banks have the U.S. administration in their hand. And how it haven't always been the case. It's so sad, to say the least. 

But Ripple also have their dream team, and the U.S. certainly wants to be #1 in FinTech, and also the Payments Task Force and all.. so this all will be very interesting!

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Biker said:

This is exactly my biggest fear with XRP. E.g. the case mentioned in some other thread on this forum, as well as in the film Inside Job, where someone representing the big banks called someone on SEC saying "stop what you are doing" .. I'm sure you know the case, sorry about not being able to memorize it precisely.

Having watched Inside Job just like two weeks ago, it was eye opening for me, how strongly the big banks have the U.S. administration in their hand. And how it haven't always been the case. It's so sad, to say the least. 

But Ripple also have their dream team, and the U.S. certainly wants to be #1 in FinTech, and also the Payments Task Force and all.. so this all will be very interesting!

 

 

True, lobby is very strong in the US. Luckily, crypto is not just about the States. “You can’t stop sea level rise but you can try to slow it down” they say. Besides, lobbying works both ways.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, Spekul8 said:

If I had a chance to convert XRP and invest directly in a publically traded Ripple, I would do that in a heart bit with an immediate liquidation of all XRPS.  I believe in the company very much

Agreed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, Spekul8 said:

 If I had a chance to convert XRP and invest directly in a publically traded Ripple, I would do that in a heart bit with an immediate liquidation of all XRPS.  I believe in the company very much and sad that I am limited to a secondary market that Korean exchanges do whatever they want with it. 

@Spekul8 here's a devils advocate idea for you; 

If you are running a multi-billion dollar business, such as a bank, would you truly invest in the technology and partnership of a company like Ripple if you thought cryptocurrencies were a scam, or going nowhere? With Ripple's massive attachment to XRP, would you take the risk of spending $10,000,000 on a new license to utilize xCurrent or xRapid, knowing full well that the software's survival, support, and continual updating was reliant upon a 'crypto' based company like Ripple if you didn't see a future in XRP?

Make no mistake, I understand the difference in Ripple and XRP.  But if Microsoft was funding say, cocaine farms and drug runners (albeit technically not illegally under current regulation) would you choose to invest your companies assets, time, etc into using Microsoft's "other" products?

Possibly. But it really seems to me like for a company to sign with Ripple in any regards at all, they are also very much aware of the idea that XRP (or other DA's) may well be apart of their long term growth and expansion. 

I just find it hard to believe that a company would ever full embrace the Ripple suite of products while simultaneously saying they would never ever touch XRP.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, RegalChicken said:

@Spekul8 here's a devils advocate idea for you; 

If you are running a multi-billion dollar business, such as a bank, would you truly invest in the technology and partnership of a company like Ripple if you thought cryptocurrencies were a scam, or going nowhere? With Ripple's massive attachment to XRP, would you take the risk of spending $10,000,000 on a new license to utilize xCurrent or xRapid, knowing full well that the software's survival, support, and continual updating was reliant upon a 'crypto' based company like Ripple if you didn't see a future in XRP?

Make no mistake, I understand the difference in Ripple and XRP.  But if Microsoft was funding say, cocaine farms and drug runners (albeit technically not illegally under current regulation) would you choose to invest your companies assets, time, etc into using Microsoft's "other" products?

Possibly. But it really seems to me like for a company to sign with Ripple in any regards at all, they are also very much aware of the idea that XRP (or other DA's) may well be apart of their long term growth and expansion. 

I just find it hard to believe that a company would ever full embrace the Ripple suite of products while simultaneously saying they would never ever touch XRP.

Fair enough. However, my question is back to you: Would you feel more comfortable with being a stockholder in a company where the company has and must comply with fiduciary duties in a mature regulatory environment or being in a secondary market manipulated by market makers and Korean exchanges and other players that can squeeze you out?? 

Consider the difference in premiums between the different exchanges. Why? Because Ripple has ZERO control over the price stability of their XRP coin. This applies to every ICO out there. 

let's not kid ourselves. Ripple and all other ICOs are marketers. A coin is a way to raise sick money for their underlying technology, and since they do not have any legal obligation, there is apathy. If XRP specs win, great! if not, that's ok too because "it is speculative". 

Vitalik Buterin who is behind ETH had the balls to say that ETH could go to zero. Ripple should do the same. At least it sets the standards right and admission that those who are behind the Coin are not concerned with the value of their coin but the utility of it. (PLEASE do reply why ETH "sucks" because it does not. Jeff Lubin for Consensys is a freaking genius). 

So would I rather invest in an underlying organization as oppose to its utility, yes! Also, I would take 10-15% growth per year than being an environment that corrects 70% and sucks in poor souls and inexperienced folks that should not touch this with a 10-foot pole. As the price declines now all they ask is "why?"

I wonder, do Ripple employees get XRP or actual Rev Share? This is rhetorical. 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Spekul8 said:

Consider the difference in premiums between the different exchanges. Why? Because Ripple has ZERO control over the price stability of their XRP coin.

Which is a good thing. Or do you think otherwise?

Edited by Lamberth

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Lamberth said:

Which is a good thing. Or do you think otherwise?

Good question! 

I believe in free markets. But, imagine Google trading at one exchange at $1,000 and other at $1,333. This is what happened to XRP where some Korean exchanges traded at a sick premium when we had the ATH.  So where is the control over price? who regulates?  How could you get fair pricing when the exchanges that hold Ripple do whatever they want? Did Ripple delist itself from them? Why not? Again, lack of regulatory obligation.   Was and still is the wild west. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Spekul8 said:

Fair enough. However, my question is back to you: Would you feel more comfortable with being a stockholder in a company where the company has and must comply with fiduciary duties in a mature regulatory environment or being in a secondary market manipulated by market makers and Korean exchanges and other players that can squeeze you out?? 

Consider the difference in premiums between the different exchanges. Why? Because Ripple has ZERO control over the price stability of their XRP coin. This applies to every ICO out there. 

let's not kid ourselves. Ripple and all other ICOs are marketers. A coin is a way to raise sick money for their underlying technology, and since they do not have any legal obligation, there is apathy. If XRP specs win, great! if not, that's ok too because "it is speculative". 

Vitalik Buterin who is behind ETH had the balls to say that ETH could go to zero. Ripple should do the same. At least it sets the standards right and admission that those who are behind the Coin are not concerned with the value of their coin but the utility of it. (PLEASE do reply why ETH "sucks" because it does not. Jeff Lubin for Consensys is a freaking genius). 

So would I rather invest in an underlying organization as oppose to its utility, yes! Also, I would take 10-15% growth per year than being an environment that corrects 70% and sucks in poor souls and inexperienced folks that should not touch this with a 10-foot pole. As the price declines now all they ask is "why?"

I wonder, do Ripple employees get XRP or actual Rev Share? This is rhetorical. 

 

 

 

10-15 percent? You crazy. I wanna invest 500 dollars in xrp and be a millionaire at the of the year!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/13/2018 at 1:34 AM, Spekul8 said:

But, imagine Google trading at one exchange at $1,000 and other at $1,333. This is what happened to XRP where some Korean exchanges traded at a sick premium when we had the ATH.  So where is the control over price? who regulates?  How could you get fair pricing when the exchanges that hold Ripple do whatever they want? Did Ripple delist itself from them? Why not? Again, lack of regulatory obligation.   Was and still is the wild west. 

@Spekul8, For the sake of argument let’s forget for a second this whole “security or not security” thing and run a mind experiment (I love these cases “a-la MBA” even though I hate MBA).

A new resource has been discovered, let’s call it xOil. There is a drilling company xRipple which discovered a big deposit of Light Crude xOil (xXRP) which is presumably better than some other types of Heavy xOil (say, xEther). In reality it’s only few sientists who realize that Light xOil is better than the Heavy one (or they say they do) because refinement process is expensive, so the difference between different types of xOil is insignificant for most of the people. Ah, and you can’t really use xOil, you can only go to your local refinery and ask them to refine it for you into xKerosene which you can burn instead of xCandles. The process is cumbersome but some do it because xCandles are expensive. 

Getting back to xRipple, it has sold a lot of xOil to their partners and to whoever was passing by their drilling site but there is more in the ground and there is an educated guess how much is left (let’s call this volume xEscrow). There are different drilling companies exist, xRipple is not unique but nobody discovered this specific type of xOil so far (but potentially there could be better, lighter types of xOil out there, nobody knows).

My questions to you as the CEO of this company are:

1. Shall xRipple focus on competing with other drilling companies at this point and bash their Heavy xOil? Light xOil is better according to some scientists, you could have inflated the price of xXRP and make some locals very happy (they would probably stop refining xOil and start hoarding in this case).

2. Shall xRipple try to control the prices, especially on the secondary markets? There are disturbing rumours that some people are re-selling xXRP on some distant markets for more than they paid at the drilling site.

3. Shall xRipple issue stocks and tie them to xOil so that whenever you bought xOil you have to buy a small portion of the drilling company as well (and vice versa)?

4. And my favourite (even though it is irrelevat for our conversation) - shall xRipple distribute xXRP from xEscrow so that nobody could say that you control its supply?

Edited by Lamberth

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

×