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XRP at 589$ = 23 000 000 000 000$ market cap

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4 minutes ago, KingsAndQueens said:

I just hope people don't perceive that figure to be a guaranteed done deal.

And maybe, just maybe a 98,100 %  rise isn’t very realistic within short or mid term. Let’s first climb out of the bearmarket. 

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From the upper estimates I have seen the crypto market cap is moving at a ratio of 55 to 1.  Assuming this to be true, XRP would need a cumulative amount of 400-500 billion to be invested before its market cap reaches 23 trillion.  I think this is a conservative estimate because this ratio will not be linear as estimated here.  As more money is invested and the supply of XRP decreases we will see an exponential increase in this ratio.

  IMO if, and this a big "IF", Ripple can realize their vision for the internet of value then 400-500 billion cumulative value invested will only be the tip of the iceberg for XRP.   

 

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5 hours ago, perebass said:

This is exactly what i did to make this number

589$ x 39 000 000 000 tokens actually in circulation = 23 000 000 000 000$

Is it wrong ?

That math assumed someone paid 589$ for every single token, what about all the people who bought on the way up? That's one of about 50 reasons your math is wrong.

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6 hours ago, Professor Hantzen said:

As is common, you have the misperception that the "market cap" is representative of the total amount of money put into a token.  It isn't, never has been for any asset, and never will be.  It's not what the measurement is for.

Take the following example:

Company Abracadabra holds an ICO for token ABC.  Let's say there are 100 billion ABC tokens.  They sell 5 billion tokens during a pre-sale for 0.01 each.  So far, they've raised $50 million dollars.  Now, because the company sold those tokens directly to actual purchasers for a fixed price, there literally exactly was - and only was - $50 million dollars put into the ABC token.  At this point, based on the total supply, the "market cap" is 0.01 * 100 billion, which equals $1 billion.  But, only $50 million was ever put in?  Ok, so right out of the gate, the "market cap" is *not* representative of the amount put into the token.

Now, let's say the company lists the token ABC on an exchange.  The initial exchange price is 0.01, but it rapidly shoots up to 0.15 cents to meet demand - a lot of people want to buy ABC who missed the ICO.  The volume for the first day was around $10,000,000 traded.  That means, $10 million was sold by ICO holders, and bought by new purchasers (in amongst some people day trading, who may have bought in the morning from early sellers, and sold again in the evening to late buyers).  The market cap at this point is $15 billion, but how much money was put in?  The maximum "put in" at this point is somewhere between $50 million and $60 million.  But the market cap is $15 *billion*, over 250x larger.

Another way to put this is that after listing an ICO, and trading on an exchange, the market cap is 250x wrong if used as an indicator of "how much of a token was bought".

This situation does not improve with more listings on exchanges, and more trading.  It gets worse and worse, because as more trading happens, we lose more and more clarity on who has physically paid for a "new" token, and who is just trading them back and forth (possibly even with themselves using different accounts on the same exchange), and the price goes higher and higher.

Market Capitalisation is essentially a flawed metric, that was hastily borrowed from Stocks (where it has a little more merit, but is still flawed) and misunderstood by most people who quote it.  Where it *does* have a use is in comparing the relative strengths of different tokens against each other.  The Market Capitalisation in some sense places each tokens "price" on a level playing field, such that each token can be compared relative to each other on some sort of a scale.

However, as I've hopefully made clear here, that relative scale has nothing to do with how many tokens have been bought or sold, nor will it ever be.

We can say that Bitcoins market cap is twice that of Ripple's at some point (or the reverse...), and this can give some indication into that token's dominance in the overall space. However, we can't use these numbers to figure out how much money has been put into a token, with *any* accuracy.  To do that accurately would be to somehow magically analyse every trade on every exchange, filter out every buyer and seller individually and identify everything they did, figure out where all of the initial capital came from and in what form it was (it may have been another token for example) and after disentangling all of that huge mess, normalise everything into one currency (say USD) and figure out what has *actually* been put in.  We will never know this number for any token in any accuracy.  What we can guess fairly accurately however, is that this number will be anywhere from hundreds to thousands, to even millions of times less than the "market cap".

This is why its very possible that digital assets can potentially have a much much higher "ceiling" than the widespread misunderstanding of what market cap is would suggest.

@Professor Hantzen this is the best explanation I've seen yet and such a magnificent post- thank you!

Needs to be pinned in every corner of crypto-space.

 

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Posted (edited)

If everything goes according to plan the way bearableguy sees it playing out then we could see $589+ end of year and its really not that difficult. With 55billion xrp locked away in escrow and roughly 40 billion xrp in circulation, how long do you think it would take for that 40 billion xrp to be bought up? Id say when the value of xrp is around $4 then we know 40billion xrp is bought up. 90% of the xrp being bought will end up stored away in wallets because people will be seeking the long term gains. 

Now remember xrp is not stock so market cap doesnt matter and wont matter because xrp is a UTILITY TOKEN. In order for a transaction to be completed, the xRapid system would need to acquire "physical/actual" xrp tokens and move it around. If 90% of xrp are locked away, that means only around 4billion xrp will be playing on exchanges by traders. 

Keep in mind that 4billion xrp in total across dozens of exchanges globally. The system cannot source xrp by crossing over exchanges so depending on which bank / FI etc is doing big trasfers, it would need to source xrp from the best liquidity pool and here comes the supply and demand problem to meet the dollar value required to be moved.

Now think about with continuous transactions taking place, the value would keep on rising to meet demand. Once you learn about buys and sells and spreads, it would make more sense

Edited by Ivandebeers

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8 hours ago, perebass said:

If XRP hits 589$ his market cap would be 23 000 000 000 000$,  depends of the number of tokens in circulation (39B actually)

Who can offer so much money in cryptocurrency ? Is it really possible ?

Its more than the US GDP (around 19-20 000B)

I cant imagine this.

Rippe and XRP are aiming to become the bridge asset for the global economy. Trade+derivatives+remittance+internet micro payments+oil etc. Yet you are comparing it to the GDP of 1 nation? Also keep in mind that xrp is not a stock. Its a utility token. If you are holding 39billion xrp in your wallet out of 40billion then your 39billion is OFF THE MARKET and cannot be used in transactions. That leaves for example just 1billion xrp on the open market. What value would that 1billion need to be be complete transactions in the 10s of billions for the beginning days and then 100s of billions and then possibly a trillion daily?? Its not that difficult to understand once you learn that xrp is not stock but rather a utility token and marketcap does not apply to cryptos but for some reason it temporarily does..

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Posted (edited)

We need to remember one thing. XRP will not gradually rise to the top. Its going to be an overnight jump out of reach to billions of people. The tracks are being laid and when xRapid goes live, all those partners we know and dont know about will be operating. With the 20xrp required to start a wallet, it would be too expensive for the ordinary person to jump on board with FOMO. The time to buy XRP is Today, not tomorrow. Imagine if xrp runs up to $100 overnight, how many can afford $2000 just to start a wallet, let alone start buying xrp to hold?

Edited by Ivandebeers

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1 minute ago, Ivandebeers said:

We need to remember one thing. XRP will not gradually rise to the top. Its going to be an overnight jump out of reach to billions of people. The tracks are being laid and when xRapid goes live, all those partners we know and dont know about will be operating. With the 20xrp required to start a wallet, it would be too expensive for the ordinary person to jump on board with FOMO. The time to buy XRP is Today, not tomorrow. Image if xrp runs up to $100 overnight, how many can affored $2000 just to start a wallet, let along start buying xrp to hold?

The current number of 20 XRP required to activate a wallet is scalable. This will no doubt change accordingly as the value increases.

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The $589 number is in my opinion not a price prediction, 58,9 is the mass of Cobalt. So it's a hint of the person that did this prediction that the ripplenet Cobalt update will bring a rise in price. Nobody knows what will happen to the price, how high it will go.

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4 minutes ago, cuber said:

The current number of 20 XRP required to activate a wallet is scalable. This will no doubt change accordingly as the value increases.

Dont count on it dropping

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2 minutes ago, poppy said:

The $589 number is in my opinion not a price prediction, 58,9 is the mass of Cobalt. So it's a hint of the person that did this prediction that the ripplenet Cobalt update will bring a rise in price. Nobody knows what will happen to the price, how high it will go.

If you are referring to the bearableguy prediction then its both $589+ and for cobalt. He did says 2birds 1 stone. On his previous prediction he called $400+

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