Jump to content

Volume Scenario Analysis: 2018 - 2021


Hodor
 Share

Recommended Posts

5 minutes ago, FUD said:

If you believe that it will stay the same, it means that there is no point in investing a dime in crypto...

Adding funds into crypto now is a tricky proposition, yes.

It depends on what the odds are.

If you could somehow know for a fact that there's 20% chance of it being worth 10 times as much 2 years from now, would there still be no point investing? Even though it's much more likely to stay the same or fail. It would still be a good spec investment in that case.

Exact numbers used in the example are meaningless, it's just to convey the idea.

 

Edited by corak
Link to comment
Share on other sites

38 minutes ago, Graine said:


What does Omni - an items micro loan company - has to do with derivatives and 2B daily valuation?  

Just saw this edit - here is my answer:

Omni has nothing to do with derivatives. 

Omni plays a very small role in my estimates: I foresee their yearly volume at 1 billion, and when you divide by 365 you arrive at the number I foresee for the for the 2018-2019 estimate for the category "Internet Companies."

Edited by Hodor
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, corak said:

Adding funds into crypto now is a tricky proposition, yes.

It depends on what the odds are.

If you could somehow know for a fact that there's 20% chance of it being worth 10 times as much 2 years from now, would there still be no point investing? Even though it's much more likely to stay the same or fail. It would still be a good spec investment in that case.

Numbers are meaningless and just to convey the idea.

 

To add, forget about adding funds, if one ( let’s say me for example) thinks that in 2020 the market is going to be the same as now or close to it , I would not even bother reading about crypto, let alone spending money on it.

If I knew for sure that in 2 years I will not get more then 2 times return, I would 100% not spend a dime. This is why most of us risk it. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, corak said:

If you could somehow know for a fact that there's 20% chance of it being worth 10 times as much 2 years from now, would there still be no point investing? Even though it's much more likely to stay the same or fail. It would still be a good spec investment in that case.

Numbers are meaningless and just to convey the idea.

This is my viewpoint as well.  I have been in XRP for 9 months now and have plenty of doubts about XRP being successful.  Nonetheless, it did not stop me from putting a decent amount into the market.

@Hodor, if XRP is successful your estimate of around $300 billion in daily trade volume sounds about right.

There is so much going on behind the scenes that we do not know about... 

Edited by Guest
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking at the volume since Feb it is hard to see the growth that has been projected here. Current crypto has struggled to rise to 500 Million since the crash the valuations of 1 Trillion, 5 Trillion, 10 Trillion etc just do not seem realistic now.

If the market can hold 500 million for a month, then 600, etc I will agree the strength (volume) is returning, but currently the volume is low and there is no sign this large scale growth based recovery.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, corak said:

It is plausable to me that we are looking at a repeat of 2014-2016 after the 2013 Bitcoin pump, just on a larger scale because more people/money is involved and it's further along.

Real developments and adoption will span another 5-10 years easily. There may be another superpump like the one in 2013/2017, no one could tell if or exactly when it will happen.

I don't expect spec volume to simply increase at a geometric rate of 10x per year. It's absurdly optimistic.

This is a highly speculative market, for sure, but in my opinion I don't think adoption will be five to ten years. Adoption is happening now. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Mr_Cambridge said:

This is a highly speculative market, for sure, but in my opinion I don't think adoption will be five to ten years. Adoption is happening now. 

"early adoption" is happening now

there's still the matter of crossing the chasm, and that can take many years. There's a lot of hype going on but technologies often take a couple of decades to become old news / boring enough so that everyone's using it without even noticing anymore.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, invest2lose said:

should probably sell the rest of your stack

Should probably stop offering unsolicited financial advice. 

 

5 minutes ago, Hodor said:

and when you divide by 365 you arrive at the number I foresee for the for the 2018-2019 estimate for the category "Internet Companies."

So, ~1.4M USD transactions daily? For a startup like omni that's a lot. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, corak said:

"early adoption" is happening now

there's still the matter of crossing the chasm, and that can take many years. There's a lot of hype going on but technologies often take a couple of decades to become old news / boring enough so that everyone's using it without even noticing anymore.

Yes. Absolutely, we can call it that. But I would also like to add that this early adoption is kicking adoption into high gear. NDAs will keep this in the dark for us, which is a good thing because we're still in early. Our investment has much room to grow and we benefit from being kept in the dark. 

Once everyone knows everyone is jumping on the XRP bandwagon, we won't make the same gains from where we stand now. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Graine said:

So, ~1.4M USD transactions daily? For a startup like omni that's a lot

 

 Uber clocks in currently at $6.5 Billion in volume per year.  

I estimated Omni at 1 billion in 2020.  I feel that's actually too conservative. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, corak said:

I didn't state this as fact, don't put words in my mouth

 

29 minutes ago, Hodor said:

Just so I'm clear: You believe that the market capitalization of cryptocurrency will be the same in 2020 as it is right now, in May of 2018?

XRP could have a larger market cap by 2020 while the total market shrinks. How long before these other "crapto" currencies fold?

Additionally, you could probably even make the argument to add a category for "unknown." There will be uses we can't possibly foresee.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.