Popular Post Hodor Posted May 21, 2018 Popular Post Share Posted May 21, 2018 (edited) Here is one possible scenario (I consider it to be on the conservative side) of how volume may be impacted by Xpring and Coil: TLDR: I think, conservatively, the daily volume of XRP should plateau at *some* level above $270 billion? Note: I am definitely not an expert, so all the usual caveats apply - also, if you think I'm missing something - good or bad, let me know. I put most of my assumptions in the notes underneath each pie chart. Disclaimer: I am not affiliated with Ripple (the company) I am also NOT qualified to be giving any investment advice whatsoever. Before making any investment – especially in the volatile world of cryptocurrency, I urge you to consult with a professional. Also, even though I am personally very pro-XRP and believe in its potential, I do not know what the future will bring for XRP price – please invest at your own risk and always Do Your Own Research (DYOR) Thanks and please leave any feedback below. -Hodor Edited May 22, 2018 by Hodor Krypto, XRPisVELOCITY, xrpmommy and 52 others 27 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plikk Posted May 21, 2018 Share Posted May 21, 2018 Nice way to look at it, and I think you could be very close. T bad we have insufficient real data to make close predictions, but if everything Ripple is working on goes according to plan, this could very well be how it works out Hodor 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krypto Posted May 21, 2018 Share Posted May 21, 2018 Brilliant stuff - but I think you might be underestimating speculation it looks like 10x from the first scenario to the last if everything else goes to plan I would imagine that this could be a lot higher - but who knows for sure, either way - great way to visualize the possible outcomes Mpolnet and Hodor 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Graine Posted May 21, 2018 Share Posted May 21, 2018 (edited) What's the difference between 'Forex' and 'Remittance'? Are those digits in USD? What does Omni - an items micro loan company - has to do with derivatives and 2B daily valuation? Edited May 21, 2018 by Graine added question Hodor 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XRPfan_Eelco Posted May 21, 2018 Share Posted May 21, 2018 @Hodor, amazing analysis and attempt to simulate the effect on possible events. thanks Hodor 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XRPisVELOCITY Posted May 21, 2018 Share Posted May 21, 2018 @Hodor thanks and makes perfect sense to me. Now we'll see what the pessimists have to say. Hodor and shaunnol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodor Posted May 21, 2018 Author Share Posted May 21, 2018 Just now, Krypto said: I think you might be underestimating speculation I agree that I underestimated the numerator. The denominator reflects a 10 X growth in the speculation market by 2021. I think that's reflective of what many analysts currently are calling for, but they call for it to reach that level a bit earlier if I'm not mistaken (~ 2020). I left XRP's "share of speculation" at a constant percentage based on what it is today. If all goes as planned, this percentage of speculation money could be materially higher. Krypto 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
corak Posted May 21, 2018 Share Posted May 21, 2018 (edited) For all we know speculative volume in crypto may very well go down in 2019. I believe we've already had our "peak normies" moment in Dec17/Jan18. It will take a lot more to bring spec volume back to those levels in a sustainable manner. You're projecting $3B/day of speculative volume on average in 2019, which is an absolutely astounding figure to say nothing of the 2020 numbers Edited May 21, 2018 by corak Hodor 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodor Posted May 21, 2018 Author Share Posted May 21, 2018 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Graine said: What's the difference between 'Forex' and 'Remittance'? Are those digits in USD? For ForEx, I used only one category of the daily volume listed in Wikipedia. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_exchange_market) Here are the categories: Quote The $5.09 trillion break-down is as follows: $1.654 trillion in spot transactions $700 billion in outright forwards $2.383 trillion in foreign exchange swaps $96 billion currency swaps $254 billion in options and other products For Remittance, I'm using the World Bank's numbers(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Remittance) : There may be some overlap, but I'm honestly not sure if they're considered the same type of transaction. Edited May 21, 2018 by Hodor PriceIsRight and XRPfan_Eelco 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodor Posted May 21, 2018 Author Share Posted May 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, corak said: You're projecting $3B/day of speculative volume on average in 2019, which is an absolutely astounding figure XRP averaged 2.7 billion per day during a consecutive five-day period in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodor Posted May 21, 2018 Author Share Posted May 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, corak said: to say nothing of the 2020 numbers It's an open floor. What do you think crypto speculative volume will be in 2020? XRPRJB 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
corak Posted May 21, 2018 Share Posted May 21, 2018 Just now, Hodor said: XRP averaged 2.7 billion per day during a consecutive five-day period in January. That's the point. What is it on average in 2018? probably one eighth that number. Hodor 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistatee2000 Posted May 21, 2018 Share Posted May 21, 2018 13 minutes ago, Hodor said: Here is one possible scenario (I consider it to be on the conservative side) of how volume may be impacted by Xpring and Coil: TLDR: I think, conservatively, the daily volume of XRP should plateau at *some* level above $270 billion? Note: I am definitely not an expert, so all the usual caveats apply - also, if you think I'm missing something - good or bad, let me know. I put most of my assumptions in the notes underneath each pie chart. Thanks and please leave any feedback below. -Hodor I think that it is as good a stab in the dark as any and as good as we can get at the moment Because this tech is moving so fast I think that we can only guess at how broad this is all going to be. In the last few days i have become really excited with Xprint and Coil, in particular because of the individuals involved, hence, I would only add that I think that micropayments is going to be enormous for xrp and Ripple, and perhaps would only serve to grow the pie Hodor and XRPfan_Eelco 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodor Posted May 21, 2018 Author Share Posted May 21, 2018 Just now, corak said: That's the point. What is it on average in 2018? probably one eighth that number. I do not know the average for 2018, but it seems like it's currently sitting at around $400 million, which is why I chose that number: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
corak Posted May 21, 2018 Share Posted May 21, 2018 Just now, Hodor said: It's an open floor. What do you think crypto speculative volume will be in 2020? It is plausable to me that we are looking at a repeat of 2014-2016 after the 2013 Bitcoin pump, just on a larger scale because more people/money is involved and it's further along. Real developments and adoption will span another 5-10 years easily. There may be another superpump like the one in 2013/2017, no one could tell if or exactly when it will happen. I don't expect spec volume to simply increase at a geometric rate of 10x per year. It's absurdly optimistic. Hodor 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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