Volume Scenario Analysis: 2018 - 2021

[Hodor]

Here is one possible scenario (I consider it to be on the conservative side) of how volume may be impacted by Xpring and Coil:

TLDR:  I think, conservatively, the daily volume of XRP should plateau at *some* level above $270 billion?

Note: I am definitely not an expert, so all the usual caveats apply - also, if you think I'm missing something - good or bad, let me know.  I put most of my assumptions in the notes underneath each pie chart. 

Disclaimer:
I am not affiliated with Ripple (the company)

I am also NOT qualified to be giving any investment advice whatsoever.  Before making any investment – especially in the volatile world of cryptocurrency, I urge you to consult with a professional.  Also, even though I am personally very pro-XRP and believe in its potential, I do not know what the future will bring for XRP price – please invest at your own risk and always Do Your Own Research (DYOR)

Thanks and please leave any feedback below. 

-Hodor

 

Edited May 22, 2018 by Hodor

[Plikk]

Nice way to look at it, and I think you could be very close. T bad we have insufficient real data to make close predictions, but if everything Ripple is working on goes according to plan, this could very well be how it works out

[Krypto]

Brilliant stuff - but I think you might be underestimating speculation it looks like 10x from the first scenario to the last 

if everything else goes to plan I would imagine that this could be a lot higher - but who knows for sure, either way - great way to visualize the possible outcomes 

[Graine]

What's the difference between 'Forex' and 'Remittance'?
Are those digits in USD? 

What does Omni - an items micro loan company - has to do with derivatives and 2B daily valuation? 

Edited May 21, 2018 by Graine
added question

[XRPfan_Eelco]

@Hodor, amazing analysis and attempt to simulate the effect on possible events.

thanks

[XRPisVELOCITY]

@Hodor thanks and makes perfect sense to me. 

Now we'll see what the pessimists have to say. 

[Hodor]

Just now, Krypto said:

I think you might be underestimating speculation

I agree that I underestimated the numerator.  The denominator reflects a 10 X growth in the speculation market by 2021.  I think that's reflective of what many analysts currently are calling for, but they call for it to reach that level a bit earlier if I'm not mistaken (~ 2020). 

I left XRP's "share of speculation" at a constant percentage based on what it is today.  If all goes as planned, this percentage of speculation money could be materially higher. 

[corak]

For all we know speculative volume in crypto may very well go down in 2019. I believe we've already had our "peak normies" moment in Dec17/Jan18. It will take a lot more to bring spec volume back to those levels in a sustainable manner.

You're projecting $3B/day of speculative volume on average in 2019, which is an absolutely astounding figure

to say nothing of the 2020 numbers

 

Edited May 21, 2018 by corak

[Hodor]

7 minutes ago, Graine said:

What's the difference between 'Forex' and 'Remittance'?
Are those digits in USD? 

For ForEx, I used only one category of the daily volume listed in Wikipedia. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_exchange_market)  Here are the categories:

Quote

 

The $5.09 trillion break-down is as follows:

• $1.654 trillion in spot transactions
• $700 billion in outright forwards
• $2.383 trillion in foreign exchange swaps
• $96 billion currency swaps
• $254 billion in options and other products

 

For Remittance, I'm using the World Bank's numbers(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Remittance) :

There may be some overlap, but I'm honestly not sure if they're considered the same type of transaction. 

 

Edited May 21, 2018 by Hodor

[Hodor]

3 minutes ago, corak said:

You're projecting $3B/day of speculative volume on average in 2019, which is an absolutely astounding figure

XRP averaged 2.7 billion per day during a consecutive five-day period in January. 

[Hodor]

5 minutes ago, corak said:

to say nothing of the 2020 numbers

It's an open floor. 

What do you think crypto speculative volume will be in 2020?

[corak]

Just now, Hodor said:

XRP averaged 2.7 billion per day during a consecutive five-day period in January. 

That's the point. What is it on average in 2018? probably one eighth that number.

[mistatee2000]

13 minutes ago, Hodor said:

Here is one possible scenario (I consider it to be on the conservative side) of how volume may be impacted by Xpring and Coil:

TLDR:  I think, conservatively, the daily volume of XRP should plateau at *some* level above $270 billion?

Note: I am definitely not an expert, so all the usual caveats apply - also, if you think I'm missing something - good or bad, let me know.  I put most of my assumptions in the notes underneath each pie chart. 

Thanks and please leave any feedback below. 

-Hodor

 

I think that it is as good a stab in the dark as any and as good as we can get at the moment

Because this tech is moving so fast I think that we can only guess at how broad this is all going to be. In the last few days i have become really excited with Xprint and Coil, in particular because of the individuals involved, hence, I would only add that I think that micropayments is going to be enormous for xrp and Ripple, and perhaps would only serve to grow the pie

[Hodor]

Just now, corak said:

That's the point. What is it on average in 2018? probably one eighth that number.

I do not know the average for 2018, but it seems like it's currently sitting at around $400 million, which is why I chose that number:

[corak]

Just now, Hodor said:

It's an open floor. 

What do you think crypto speculative volume will be in 2020?

It is plausable to me that we are looking at a repeat of 2014-2016 after the 2013 Bitcoin pump, just on a larger scale because more people/money is involved and it's further along.

Real developments and adoption will span another 5-10 years easily. There may be another superpump like the one in 2013/2017, no one could tell if or exactly when it will happen.

I don't expect spec volume to simply increase at a geometric rate of 10x per year. It's absurdly optimistic.