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Future returns of XRP (and cryptocurrencies in general)

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We are all acutely aware of the massive returns that cryptocurrencies have generated over the past 5+ years.  Mind-boggling, really. But as the market has matured from a small niche of techies and anarchists to a relatively mainstream, albeit still immature, market (see CNBC's constant coverage of Bitcoin), is it really reasonable to assume that future returns will be anywhere near historic returns?  On the one hand, we are still awaiting large-scale investment from financial industry and that could be a catalyst for huge upward movement.  On the other hand, we have a market of intrinsically worthless (for the time being) digital assets that is currently valued over $300 billion.  The present value and any future increase is driven almost purely on speculation and potential, rather than real value.  I am not arguing that there isn't the potential for massive value, which is why I am invested almost purely in XRP, I just wonder how the rational people on this board justify continued astronomical growth before real utility.  If I were to project based on what I have read on XRP implementation, it will likely be 2020 before any demonstrable use of XRP at a volume high enough to affect the price could be seen.  Until then, we are betting on the potential of the asset, correct?

One thing I will say is this: for those who are not particularly tech savvy, there are still massive barriers to entry (psychological and technological) and that alone makes me feel as though there is still room to run.  Taken together with the fact that this is a world investment, not a US investment, makes me optimistic that is room for truly silly appreciation of the entire asset class.  

The bottom line is that this is a nascent technology with no obvious correlate in history, so I guess there has to be an element of pure optimism and hope to get one by.

@Hodor I'm sure you have better things to do, but would particularly love to hear your input if you have the chance.

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Due to lack of liquidity, this early stage in the market is quite volatile and is susceptible to huge price movement. The $300 Billion market cap is no reflection of the total amount invested in the market due to this lack of liquidity. The true amount is a lot less and if you take into consideration the Financial Institutions waiting on the sidelines for regulations and proof of concept etc, their money will likely dwarf what is already here.

I think there will still be big % gains to be had up until the market becomes more liquid and steady growth takes hold.

That's my 2 cents.

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2 hours ago, Thoraeus said:

I just wonder how the rational people on this board justify continued astronomical growth before real utility. 

Speculation.  New entrants this year will have the most money the market has ever seen.  The market will expand massively, and the few tokens that are real with it.

 

1 hour ago, Flintstone said:

Due to lack of liquidity, this early stage in the market is quite volatile and is susceptible to huge price movement. The $300 Billion market cap is no reflection of the total amount invested in the market due to this lack of liquidity. The true amount is a lot less and if you take into consideration the Financial Institutions waiting on the sidelines for regulations and proof of concept etc, their money will likely dwarf what is already here.

I think there will still be big % gains to be had up until the market becomes more liquid and steady growth takes hold.

That's my 2 cents.

Yes, agreed completely. 

 

2 hours ago, Thoraeus said:

Until then, we are betting on the potential of the asset, correct? 

I think so.  That is why the risk in this area is so incredibly high.  And it's speculative.  Also the returns may well justify that risk!  

But that's why I chose XRP and no other token.  I felt in a highly speculative market, even if it's returns were not the highest, I could sleep well at night.  Didn't feel it was some fly by night ICO, didn't feel that is was actually much of a risk in truth - with banks getting behind it, and had a massive potential to run up in price predictably over time.   Also I understood the problems it was trying to solve, and that made sense to me. 

There is no justifcation in my mind for it to repeat the astronomical growth from its inception.  But it doesn't have to in order to produce a mind blowing return. 

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2 minutes ago, xrphilosophy said:

Speculation.  New entrants this year will have the most money the market has ever seen.  The market will expand massively, and the few tokens that are real with it.

 

Yes, agreed completely. 

 

I think so.  That is why the risk in this area is so incredibly high.  And it's speculative.  Also the returns may well justify that risk!  

But that's why I chose XRP and no other token.  I felt in a highly speculative market, even if it's returns were not the highest, I could sleep well at night.  Didn't feel it was some fly by night ICO, didn't feel that is was actually much of a risk in truth - with banks getting behind it, and had a massive potential to run up in price predictably over time.   Also I understood the problems it was trying to solve, and that made sense to me. 

There is no justifcation in my mind for it to repeat the astronomical growth from its inception.  But it doesn't have to in order to produce a mind blowing return. 

I’m in a similar boat.

90+% in XRP, but like to buy the odd Alt-Coin (Alt to XRP) if I can sense a crowd storm occurring. I called Verge and ByteCoin well, and have since sold all my Verge. Currently looking at Neo and BitcoinPrivate, only because I think Neo will win over some ETH lovers and BTCP may win over some BTC holders. Once they shoot up, I sell and stick the proceeds in XRP.

Basically I see XRP as a long term investment and the others as short term bets!

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I think Apple has a market cap of 800 billion $ as a company but with digital assets as the name implies it is more or less an asset and we know single asset classes are more valued than Apple - the whole crypto market is vauled about 400 billion $ with a lot of random projects that are absolutely overvauled due to not even having anything close to a real use case.

And i think XRP as not only an asset but also a real case solution called cross border payments (3-4? quadrillion $ being sent each year) alone that kind of volume per year would give XRP a lot of increased value. Not to mention all the rising use cases that come with DLT that are impossible with the financial system we have now.

I do not know about you guys but you can expect me to stick around here another few years.

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Also like to add to the OP's questions/comments that XRP and Ripple today don't seem nearly as speculative as it did in May 2017.  More than everything hoped for happened, and even moreso.  Sure, there may be *some* speculative aspect of XRP's future in play, but with the progress of this last year, especially the last 6-7 months, it's very difficult to envision great things not happening.  This coupled with the fact that an entire infrastructure is being built around the digital asset market (regulated exchanges, custody, insurance, funds, et al), and that widespread "big" money is about to justify this market for the first time, and the media hype that comes with it and well, the upwards trajectory of XRP in particular will be difficult to avoid. 

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3 hours ago, Thoraeus said:

We are all acutely aware of the massive returns that cryptocurrencies have generated over the past 5+ years.  Mind-boggling, really. But as the market has matured from a small niche of techies and anarchists to a relatively mainstream, albeit still immature, market (see CNBC's constant coverage of Bitcoin), is it really reasonable to assume that future returns will be anywhere near historic returns?  On the one hand, we are still awaiting large-scale investment from financial industry and that could be a catalyst for huge upward movement.  On the other hand, we have a market of intrinsically worthless (for the time being) digital assets that is currently valued over $300 billion.  The present value and any future increase is driven almost purely on speculation and potential, rather than real value.  I am not arguing that there isn't the potential for massive value, which is why I am invested almost purely in XRP, I just wonder how the rational people on this board justify continued astronomical growth before real utility.  If I were to project based on what I have read on XRP implementation, it will likely be 2020 before any demonstrable use of XRP at a volume high enough to affect the price could be seen.  Until then, we are betting on the potential of the asset, correct?

One thing I will say is this: for those who are not particularly tech savvy, there are still massive barriers to entry (psychological and technological) and that alone makes me feel as though there is still room to run.  Taken together with the fact that this is a world investment, not a US investment, makes me optimistic that is room for truly silly appreciation of the entire asset class.  

The bottom line is that this is a nascent technology with no obvious correlate in history, so I guess there has to be an element of pure optimism and hope to get one by.

@Hodor I'm sure you have better things to do, but would particularly love to hear your input if you have the chance.

I think about this a lot. Crypto currencies have gained mainstream exposure but not many are actually investing in it. As you said, the barrier of entry is too high. When that changes, the market will surely reach new levels. I think the difference now is that you could have made a million with $100 investment 2 years ago. Now it takes some financial risk. 

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43 minutes ago, xrphilosophy said:

Also like to add to the OP's questions/comments that XRP and Ripple today don't seem nearly as speculative as it did in May 2017.  More than everything hoped for happened, and even moreso.  Sure, there may be *some* speculative aspect of XRP's future in play, but with the progress of this last year, especially the last 6-7 months, it's very difficult to envision great things not happening.  This coupled with the fact that an entire infrastructure is being built around the digital asset market (regulated exchanges, custody, insurance, funds, et al), and that widespread "big" money is about to justify this market for the first time, and the media hype that comes with it and well, the upwards trajectory of XRP in particular will be difficult to avoid. 

Thanks to all who have shared their thoughts.  One of my main remaining holdups when considering the future value of XRP is that, even if all of the best-case scenarios come true in terms of adoption, there is no guarantee that widespread usage will even affect the price.  I know this has been discussed in various forms in other threads, but the best I can tell from those discussions is that it is murky at best.  Sometimes, I feel as though people are confusing investment with XRP as an investment in Ripple.  I have very little doubt that Ripple the company will do well, but I can easily envision a scenario in which their digital asset does not appreciate. 

One of my greatest sources of comfort, though, is something that the detractors of XRP frequently deride, which is the massive amount of XRP that Ripple holds.  These are very bright people who have every reason to support the price of XRP, as they directly profit from it.  There are few greater motivations than financial incentive and so I would hope that they would seek to implement XRP in a way that boosts its intrinsic value.

Anyway, I remain a steadfast holder of XRP and await great things in the future.

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1 hour ago, Mikhail_Liebenstein said:

I’m in a similar boat.

90+% in XRP, but like to buy the odd Alt-Coin (Alt to XRP) if I can sense a crowd storm occurring. I called Verge and ByteCoin well, and have since sold all my Verge. Currently looking at Neo and BitcoinPrivate, only because I think Neo will win over some ETH lovers and BTCP may win over some BTC holders. Once they shoot up, I sell and stick the proceeds in XRP.

Basically I see XRP as a long term investment and the others as short term bets!

Check out icon. They are similar to ripple in terms of governmental regulations 

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2 hours ago, Mikhail_Liebenstein said:

I’m in a similar boat.

90+% in XRP, but like to buy the odd Alt-Coin (Alt to XRP) if I can sense a crowd storm occurring. I called Verge and ByteCoin well, and have since sold all my Verge. Currently looking at Neo and BitcoinPrivate, only because I think Neo will win over some ETH lovers and BTCP may win over some BTC holders. Once they shoot up, I sell and stick the proceeds in XRP.

Basically I see XRP as a long term investment and the others as short term bets!

Agreed.  My longest and largest stack is XRP.  I like trading some others to increase my long term XRP stack.  I've recently done this as well with NULS, LISK, Cardano, and Tron.  Got a few live trades going on currently also, but at the end of the day, I do it to buy more XRP.

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7 hours ago, xrphilosophy said:

Also like to add to the OP's questions/comments that XRP and Ripple today don't seem nearly as speculative as it did in May 2017.  More than everything hoped for happened, and even moreso.  Sure, there may be *some* speculative aspect of XRP's future in play, but with the progress of this last year, especially the last 6-7 months, it's very difficult to envision great things not happening.  

The only coin (or actually soon to be) I know if that may still fall into this boat is SwiftDemand. It will get a rebranding when they launch the Blockchain based on Neo, but right now it is still a centralised Wallet. They did a Dutch Auction recently where the SWIFTs went for roughly $0.0038; there will be a later ICO, but the main way to get SWIFTs for now is as Daily Income, referrals or by selling on the store.  The 100 coins per day Income will be lowered to a steady inflation rate in the future and coin volumes will probably end up similar to XRP, though right now they are a lot less. Currently they have 350,000 users, which I think is a good start.

 

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