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corak

XRP distribution - behind schedule?

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Ripple at some point communicated that it would prefer to distribute around 300M XRP per month, and in year 2021 to have half of all XRP distributed (I think that was in 2016).

Obviously due to the increased prices, it is more difficult to sell this much XRP, but also just sitting on it indefinitely isn't really a solution.

Ripple is removing only 100M from escrow per month, but according to distribution numbers it is not selling even this much XRP per month - the amount of undistributed, non-escrowed funds is growing:

{"date":"2018-01-07T00:00:00Z","total":"99992855589","distributed":"39029058672","undistributed":"6963796893","escrowed":"54000000024"},

{"date":"2018-01-14T00:00:00Z","total":"99992777885","distributed":"39029001738","undistributed":"6963776123","escrowed":"54000000024"},

{"date":"2018-01-21T00:00:00Z","total":"99992725510","distributed":"39029011222","undistributed":"6963714263","escrowed":"54000000024"},

{"date":"2018-01-28T00:00:00Z","total":"99992664799","distributed":"39032356092","undistributed":"6960308683","escrowed":"54000000024"},

{"date":"2018-02-04T00:00:00Z","total":"99992622540","distributed":"39094802192","undistributed":"6997820324","escrowed":"53900000024"},

{"date":"2018-02-11T00:00:00Z","total":"99992581434","distributed":"39100882273","undistributed":"6991699137","escrowed":"53900000024"},

{"date":"2018-02-18T00:00:00Z","total":"99992548829","distributed":"39065864322","undistributed":"7026684483","escrowed":"53900000024"},

{"date":"2018-02-25T00:00:00Z","total":"99992520283","distributed":"39091956706","undistributed":"7000563553","escrowed":"53900000024"},

{"date":"2018-03-04T00:00:00Z","total":"99992497246","distributed":"39091716516","undistributed":"7100780706","escrowed":"53800000024"},

{"date":"2018-03-11T00:00:00Z","total":"99992466986","distributed":"39094094840","undistributed":"7098372122","escrowed":"53800000024"},

{"date":"2018-03-18T00:00:00Z","total":"99992434971","distributed":"39094227299","undistributed":"7098207647","escrowed":"53800000024"},

{"date":"2018-03-25T00:00:00Z","total":"99992405149","distributed":"39094520623","undistributed":"7097884501","escrowed":"53800000024"},

{"date":"2018-04-01T00:00:00Z","total":"99992382672","distributed":"39116050477","undistributed":"7076332171","escrowed":"53800000024"},

{"date":"2018-04-08T00:00:00Z","total":"99992362643","distributed":"39122794968","undistributed":"7169567650","escrowed":"53700000024"}

It's around 100M every 3 months now. At current rate they will be done distributing it in about 150 years.  There's enough data to draw from now, it seems to be the new normal. I'm also not sure why 100M is being removed from escrow, rather than 30M-35M as that is the amount of XRP actually distributed.

A new XRP report is coming up, could we get some clarity over this situation please?

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my optimistically hopeful reply would be perhaps when they made the 300 million comment their internal analysis had expected a price of X - and with more partnerships and things we don't know there is an internal price analysis that shows a predicted price of XXX...

Honestly though, I don't know.  There has been SOME good news recently that has slipped out, but the radio silence 200 banks thing has left us all starving for more news! 

I would think that we should get the Q 1 report probably on Tuesday.  

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Maybe they have a market maker or someone who will be needing that unused amounts shortly so it is sitting waiting to be taken up.

But I'm not sure I understand fully....   are you saying that funds that weren't sold from escrow did not go back into the tail end escrow?  Because that was what they said they would do....   I would hope they haven't changed their mind and that they have a good reason they will share with us if that is the case.

Edited by Tinyaccount
Autocorrect again.... Sigh....

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They are returning unsold funds, just not all of them.

Every month they get 1B XRP unlocked, and they lock 900M again at the end of the month, even though they are selling only 35M. Shouldn't it be 965M, not 900M? I don't particularly mind either way. What bothers me is that they ain't selling, not so much exactly how much of it gets re-escrowed,

 

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You do know that the remaining XRP after the 55 contracts will be used as a liquidity pool?
 So, maybe they're building slowly the liquidity pool.

I don't know when Xpool will be used, but if everything is in escrow that wouldn't make much sense, would it?

 

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Here is what @corak is referring to in terms of the old distribution schedule.

https://web.archive.org/web/20161007033835/https://ripple.com/xrp-portal/

Quote

Distributing value is a powerful way to incentivize certain behaviors. Bitcoin’s mechanism, for example, led to an explosion of processing power devoted to bitcoin mining. Our goal in distributing XRP is to incentivize actions that build trust, utility and liquidity in the network.

If we distribute XRP with these goals in mind, over time we expect to see an increase in demand for XRP that more than offsets the additional supply we inject into the market. Said another way, we will engage in distribution strategies that we expect will result in a stable and strengthening XRP exchange rate against other currencies. To this end, we currently plan to distribute XRP primarily through business development deals, incentives to liquidity providers who offer tighter spreads for payments, and selling XRP to institutional buyers interested in investing in XRP. If market conditions permit, we expect our company to hold approximately 50 billion XRP by the end of 2021. This schedule is indicative and discretionary.

 

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The fact that Ripple still owns 60B XRP has always been for me a negative . It will definitely limit the upside potential of the XRP price. People might say.. but.... If XRP goes to $100, Ripple will be a 6T company just because of the fact that that they own 60B XRP. Do you think the US govt will let one company be that powerful? I understand that Ripple might need some time to figure out the strategy they want to take and they might have underestimated the rise in value of XRP. This makes the matter worse as the incentives they were giving to other companies for XRP adoption might not be as needed now as the as the adoption of their tech is ahead of the schedule and happening without needing any incentive. In the end, I think this is a good problem to have but the one that needs addressed sooner than later. Maybe a donation of significant portion of their holdings to a different entity to develop the ecosystem just like they got the donation in the first place? 

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23 minutes ago, lll_lll said:

 The fact that Ripple still owns 60B XRP has always been for me a negative . It will definitely limit the upside potential of the XRP price. People might say.. but.... If XRP goes to $100, Ripple will be a 6T company just because of the fact that that they own 60B XRP. Do you think the US govt will let one company be that powerful? I understand that Ripple might need some time to figure out the strategy they want to take and they might have underestimated the rise in value of XRP. This makes the matter worse as the incentives they were giving to other companies for XRP adoption might not be as needed now as the as the adoption of their tech is ahead of the schedule and happening without needing any incentive. In the end, I think this is a good problem to have but the one that needs addressed sooner than later. Maybe a donation of significant portion of their holdings to a different entity to develop the ecosystem just like they got the donation in the first place? 

This is one thing that I have always felt sits as an albatross over Ripple, the fact that they own 60B and as you mentioned not just the US but not any world government is going to advocate for a  company of that magnitude unless the Government owns a stake in the company(smell the corruption).  At $100.00 per XRP or more Ripple could pay off the National debt.  I am in no way saying that XRP won't succeed due to the fact.   XRP may be a regulation friendly crypto but in this case more focus is going to be attributed on a company that if it flourishes worth could equal or surpass the total GDP of a China or even United States honestly that even scares myself and I am all in with XRP.  I think Ripple needs to find a way to distribute the 60B that would benefit the company and XRP but definitely not hold on to it.

Edited by RikkiTikki

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56 minutes ago, RikkiTikki said:

This is one thing that I have always felt sits as an albatross over Ripple, the fact that they own 60B and as you mentioned not just the US but not any world government is going to advocate for a  company of that magnitude unless the Government owns a stake in the company(smell the corruption).  At $100.00 per XRP or more Ripple could pay off the National debt.  I am in no way saying that XRP won't succeed due to the fact.   XRP may be a regulation friendly crypto but in this case more focus is going to be attributed on a company that if it flourishes worth could equal or surpass the total GDP of a China or even United States honestly that even scares myself and I am all in with XRP.  I think Ripple needs to find a way to distribute the 60B that would benefit the company and XRP but definitely not hold on to it.

I agree that it seems like an obscene valuation for any one company's assets... But it's really only notional value. Only very small portions of that could be offloaded onto the market as Ripple sees fit, not just due to escrow contracts, but due to the counterproductive nature of rapidly offloading XRP which would depress prices etc. etc.

Escrow aside, Ripple would not be able to sell say 20 billion XRP all at once on the open market. The price would implode only to be gobbled up by buyers looking for a "flash crash" opportunity, and besides, there would be no buyers for such a large amount at reasonable prices. It would make no sense to do that. Ripple would cannibalize their baby (XRP).

So, as long as Ripple is selling off smaller amounts of XRP to generate revenue (say, a couple hundred million per month -- which is still a ton), they would have similar cashflow to comparable tech companies. So really, their notional wealth of (insert astronomical number here) may not seem that ludicrous when you look at how much of that they can actually use at any given time, and what that means for their monthly/quarterly/annual cash flows. Cash flows is probably more important to consider, imo.

Just my two drops.

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Yes that's what I had seen as well. They don't put all the unsold XRP back into escrow.

On 4/6/2018 at 3:02 PM, mrenne_17 said:

It is still in the account. That account has 1.8b XRP now

EDIT: here is the wallet with the Jan-Feb-Mar-Apr-May escrow amounts: r9NpyVfLfUG8hatuCCHKzosyDtKnBdsEN3

From the Jan and Feb escrow release, 800m was put back into escrow, 200m XRP each month went into the selling account, which put 100m XRP each month back into escrow.

From the Mar escrow release, 200m went into the selling account, nothing went back into escrow (this is not according to the promise, if you ask me)

The April release is still in the wallet in full.

FWIW they are transferring 50m from the escrow each month into r4MoybfgCHDoUByYyMejimaX6a8CEtWtav

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10 hours ago, corak said:

Ripple at some point communicated that i

Ripple at some point communicated that it wanted to become better bitcoin. Then the pivot happened. 

Point being, there is no way to hold them to their word. They shift goals and methods as they please. 

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