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XRP MC Heat Map (% change)

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Spotted something similar over in r/cryptocurrency and thought it would be cool to see the results for XRP.

5abfdb4bd2be8_MCHeatMap.thumb.png.8151a2857b80e8ce803c696a4dfdf4d3.png

The data is XRP market cap average for each month and the % change from the previous month. I don't fully support the idea that past performance predicts the future, but trends do exist.

If you'd like to see other XRP data presented let me know. I'm also weighing up adding a technical section to the XRPinformation site.

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11 minutes ago, Quintree said:

Gives me respect for you guys that stuck it out in 2015.  That's some serious HODLering. :P

It was quite hard to HODL the door when the armaJEDdon broke out, but we did it. Some of us anyways :)

 

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Guest

I was curious if there are particular days where XRP value is highest and lowest.

xrpvalueweekday.png.bf7d46a79ec41f5dc42b9f55f0177ead.png

Take this with a huge grain of salt. The data is closing price (UTC).

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15 hours ago, XRPinformation said:

Spotted something similar over in r/cryptocurrency and thought it would be cool to see the results for XRP.

5abfdb4bd2be8_MCHeatMap.thumb.png.8151a2857b80e8ce803c696a4dfdf4d3.png

The data is XRP market cap average for each month and the % change from the previous month. I don't fully support the idea that past performance predicts the future, but trends do exist.

If you'd like to see other XRP data presented let me know. I'm also weighing up adding a technical section to the XRPinformation site.

Can you do what Tom Lee did with BTC? Take out the 10 best days for each year?

 

 

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5 hours ago, ed1 said:

Can you do what Tom Lee did with BTC? Take out the 10 best days for each year?

 

 

I was watching this the other day and it didn't cross my mind to check. I'll play around today and see what I can do.

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Guest

I've been playing with the numbers but have come to the conclusion that there are multiple ways to amend the data. I'm not sure how Tom Lee decided on the ten best performing days and he probably ran solid statistic in general. If anyone has an idea let me know.

Two approaches I looked at:

1) Highlighting the top 10 % daily difference across the year and removing them.

2) Start with the top % daily difference and remove it. Find the next daily difference, which was often (not always) the day following the deleted one. and so on.

The next step was figuring out the difference year to year. Should I average out the yearly price, take the max or minimum etc.

Using Step 2 and averaging the price I got the following results.

top10xrp.png.874694406cda8c44b3cb0840b8d4e5e5.png

From looking at the numbers the last few days, the value of XRP tends to do nothing most of the time followed by a very short period of explosive movement, and then repeat. Sounds obvious. Something I noticed, but did not fully appreciate, was that 7 of the 10 top days in 2017 were during the April rally and only a handful in the $+ dollar rally in Dec.

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18 hours ago, XRPinformation said:

I've been playing with the numbers but have come to the conclusion that there are multiple ways to amend the data. I'm not sure how Tom Lee decided on the ten best performing days and he probably ran solid statistic in general. If anyone has an idea let me know.

Two approaches I looked at:

1) Highlighting the top 10 % daily difference across the year and removing them.

2) Start with the top % daily difference and remove it. Find the next daily difference, which was often (not always) the day following the deleted one. and so on.

The next step was figuring out the difference year to year. Should I average out the yearly price, take the max or minimum etc.

Using Step 2 and averaging the price I got the following results.

top10xrp.png.874694406cda8c44b3cb0840b8d4e5e5.png

From looking at the numbers the last few days, the value of XRP tends to do nothing most of the time followed by a very short period of explosive movement, and then repeat. Sounds obvious. Something I noticed, but did not fully appreciate, was that 7 of the 10 top days in 2017 were during the April rally and only a handful in the $+ dollar rally in Dec.

Thanks, this is quite interesting.

Regarding methodology, what I would suggest would be a similar approach but with important differences.

1) Calculate all daily price changes in % term.

2) Find the top 10 days in terms of daily price increase in % (using closing price - opening price diff) for  a given year. 

3) Exclude the top 10 days in terms of percentage increase and re-calculate the daily prices using a running rollover of earlier prices with daily percentage changes. The same sequence for the whole year without these 10 days should be applied.

4) Calculate the difference between beginning price for year and ending price for the year.

I think this is the approach Tom Lee is referring to. Averaging out the rest of the prices may not give as much of an idea becasue the remaining prices will have levels they may have never reached if it weren't for these 10 days.

In fact, I have just ran a calculation using this method, from 28th Feb, 2017 to 26th Feb 2018. The all time highest prices we would reached would be 0.116 dolars in May 17th, 2017 and 0.1269 dollars in January 7, 2018. And during this period (350+ hyptotheical days), the return would have been 95%, still a very good performance actually and keep in mind that I haven't taken out the worst days from this calculation (which are obviously going to be related to the major price spikes so a better approach may be to take those out as well). But, overall it seems to agreew with Tom Lee's observation for Bitcoin that most of the price appreciation is happening during spikes, which translates to HODL.

 

Edited by Guest

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