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A chart of aggregate XRP holdings by the BearWhale


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23 minutes ago, zerpdigger said:

"worst possible time" is clearly subjective opinion

price might go lower ; their situation might be they need cash ; they might want a few ferraris ; they may not see a future for xrp now ; they might ... blablabla

it's arrogant to assume to know others' reasonings behind buys/sells, and we all hae to sell AT SOME POINT if we want to profit

EDIT: also another ASSUMPTION you made is that this is the entirety of their holdings! maybe they want to secure some or MOST now, and have some more packed away for a rainy day -- but you will give the same argument at any price

I somewhat agree on your first point.  It's subjective, but given the context of "people who know what they're doing with large sums of money and think long-term", the current market conditions would appear to meet the "worst possible time" description.  

Your last point is exactly my point. We cannot know if this is the entirety of their holdings, or what they are doing with the rest of their holdings or whether they are gradually accumulating (in KRW for example...) at a far higher rate than they are selling.  We cannot know *anything*, and we can only make assumptions.  This research is interesting - but its *not conclusive*.  I'm not saying that my alternate scenarios are definitely correct, I'm saying that the fact that they *might be correct*, or could be *partially correct* is important to consider.

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Just cause I'm bored and I already had almost all the code I needed to generate it, here's a chart of the XRP held by the collection of accounts known as the BearWhale, originating at address raZt9CZH

Actually my thoughts exactly! Chris Larsen supposedly donated 7bn XRP to RippleWorks   1) Address that activated BW account: https://bithomp.com/explorer/rwSy4ZmW1hvpziYyeVQ35yhMTY

Update on 8/13: rH5AgjpTd6fNhTTA4ATnSpznAzsS94JjKh - 14.5M rLTsSbzhrr1MAXSWpzFBtS2bi4dFb6bpWL - 2.5M rMwhLJ8VvvZq2PsfC9PBigZY5UWDj5jpHr - 50M rJfoXNyaaWAiag3R7t9oa3UqyRa663qTrc -

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26 minutes ago, corak said:

No one is an idiot for taking a 300x profit, you're out of your mind, any exceptionally good investment like this one is at least in part a happy accident.

Correlation between the rate in which this XRP has moved and XRP's vol/24h (either globally, or on Bitstamp + Bitfinex where he's selling).

It is just a very rough benchmark for how the rest of the crypto market is expected to move, barring other external forces. Coins that are doing poorly or losing visibility will fade away against BTC. It doesn't matter for that purpose how much direct trade there is between the coin and BTC.

For us, not for him! Because if he continued to hold and we got rekt like this anyway, there is no relief in sight when the "transfer" is over, and we will have to suffer this selling pressure for real at some point in the future.

In principle you could have said the same thing when XRP went from 0.006 --> 0.35 and then went back down to 0.11, did these accounts sell through any of that?  That's consistent with the behaviour of a long-term investor who is not concerned with short-term market moves.

The overwhelming trade volume day over day in XRP for the past several months, since before the rise, and now in the correction, has been coming from and is continuing to come from Korea through KRW.  Koreans buying XRP (and all crypto) in a frenzy, and now turning around and selling - spurred on in no small measure by the ongoing regulatory situation there is the most likely singular cause for movements of XRP over the past several months.  In general, such things are not accountable to singular causes, but *if* we insisted on finding one, that would be far more likely than the assumption as astute long-term investor is selling right now and their small contribution to daily trade volumes (versus that of the results of Korean sentiment) is whats wholly responsible.

If you find a direct link between this account and KRW, that would be particularly interesting. :)

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36 minutes ago, Professor Hantzen said:

In principle you could have said the same thing when XRP went from 0.006 --> 0.35 and then went back down to 0.11, did these accounts sell through any of that?  That's consistent with the behaviour of a long-term investor who is not concerned with short-term market moves.
 

There was a regular here on the board called AmericanXRP which sold out of something like 10 million XRP during that pump. I imagine a few other large holders did too. There wasn't enough liquidity to exit REALLY large positions back then, besides we all decide our own exit points. Maybe this guy's was reached in the January pump. Who knows?

Quote

 

The overwhelming trade volume day over day in XRP for the past several months, since before the rise, and now in the correction, has been coming from and is continuing to come from Korea through KRW.  Koreans buying XRP (and all crypto) in a frenzy, and now turning around and selling - spurred on in no small measure by the ongoing regulatory situation there is the most likely singular cause for movements of XRP over the past several months. 

 

A couple of things:

1. KRW and now JPY makes up a lot of the XRP volume, but that's been the case for quite a while now. They were not unique in buying XRP (or other cryptos) in a frenzy during Dec/Jan, westerners did the same as them.

2. A simple Google trends search will reveal that interest among the general public in cryptos (all coins) spiked to an insane level during the bubble, and when there's a traffic jam at the bid side the price goes to the moon. They lost interest and now the price came back down. That's the largest factor driving these price changes. A BearWhale or two dumping a coin is much less significant in comparison.

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Very fast dumping rate lately:

2018-03-19 20:00:00,392113057
2018-03-20 00:00:00,383613057
2018-03-20 04:00:00,373363057
2018-03-20 08:00:00,368363057
2018-03-20 12:00:00,366113057
2018-03-20 16:00:00,366113057
2018-03-20 20:00:00,344613057
2018-03-21 00:00:00,290363035
2018-03-21 04:00:00,273863035
2018-03-21 08:00:00,273863035
2018-03-21 12:00:00,273863035
2018-03-21 16:00:00,273863035
2018-03-21 20:00:00,254863035
2018-03-22 00:00:00,244113035
2018-03-22 04:00:00,244113035
2018-03-22 08:00:00,244113035
2018-03-22 12:00:00,244113035
2018-03-22 16:00:00,244113035
2018-03-22 20:00:00,234113035
 

 

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28 minutes ago, corak said:

My guess is that there will be a break now, but either way, it's gone until end of Apr almost for sure.

I traced the account back to the genesis account that distributed 100B XRP ... this individual seems to be funded from that period... seems logical it is he who must not be named.

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4 hours ago, corak said:

Very fast dumping rate lately:

2018-03-19 20:00:00,392113057
2018-03-20 00:00:00,383613057
2018-03-20 04:00:00,373363057
2018-03-20 08:00:00,368363057
2018-03-20 12:00:00,366113057
2018-03-20 16:00:00,366113057
2018-03-20 20:00:00,344613057
2018-03-21 00:00:00,290363035
2018-03-21 04:00:00,273863035
2018-03-21 08:00:00,273863035
2018-03-21 12:00:00,273863035
2018-03-21 16:00:00,273863035
2018-03-21 20:00:00,254863035
2018-03-22 00:00:00,244113035
2018-03-22 04:00:00,244113035
2018-03-22 08:00:00,244113035
2018-03-22 12:00:00,244113035
2018-03-22 16:00:00,244113035
2018-03-22 20:00:00,234113035
 

 

This is interesting, makes me think it’s definitely done by a bot, if the timings are correct, there is a definate progression/regression in value. More importantly, it will keep on going automatically till stopped, even more importantly..... we can predict the specific time when it will happen.

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41 minutes ago, xrp_Tokas said:

This is interesting, makes me think it’s definitely done by a bot, if the timings are correct, there is a definate progression/regression in value. More importantly, it will keep on going automatically till stopped, even more importantly..... we can predict the specific time when it will happen.

you're misinterpreting this. My time series is based on the sum of balances in a cluster of accounts that I've identified as belonging to the BearWhale. It does not signify when transactions took place. I sampled the sum-of-balances based on transaction records in the ledger with a 4-hour sampling interval.

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43 minutes ago, xrp_Tokas said:

This is interesting, makes me think it’s definitely done by a bot, if the timings are correct, there is a definate progression/regression in value. More importantly, it will keep on going automatically till stopped, even more importantly..... we can predict the specific time when it will happen.

At that rate, they will be a $0.00 in 4.45 days...

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3 hours ago, xrpsailor1 said:

 

Dumping an average of 52.6 MM XRP/ day over the last 3 days. At this rate, the final 234 MM will be gone in 4.44 days. March 28th here we come!

What if this whale decides that now he's dumped 1 billion XRP at a massive profit and wants to go ahead and pump the coin back in the other direction?

4.44 days till rocket?

space shuttle gif.gif

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5 hours ago, corak said:

Very fast dumping rate lately:

2018-03-19 20:00:00,392113057
2018-03-20 00:00:00,383613057
2018-03-20 04:00:00,373363057
2018-03-20 08:00:00,368363057
2018-03-20 12:00:00,366113057
2018-03-20 16:00:00,366113057
2018-03-20 20:00:00,344613057
2018-03-21 00:00:00,290363035
2018-03-21 04:00:00,273863035
2018-03-21 08:00:00,273863035
2018-03-21 12:00:00,273863035
2018-03-21 16:00:00,273863035
2018-03-21 20:00:00,254863035
2018-03-22 00:00:00,244113035
2018-03-22 04:00:00,244113035
2018-03-22 08:00:00,244113035
2018-03-22 12:00:00,244113035
2018-03-22 16:00:00,244113035
2018-03-22 20:00:00,234113035
 

 

which wallet address is that?

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