Jump to content

A chart of aggregate XRP holdings by the BearWhale


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 481
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Just cause I'm bored and I already had almost all the code I needed to generate it, here's a chart of the XRP held by the collection of accounts known as the BearWhale, originating at address raZt9CZH

Actually my thoughts exactly! Chris Larsen supposedly donated 7bn XRP to RippleWorks   1) Address that activated BW account: https://bithomp.com/explorer/rwSy4ZmW1hvpziYyeVQ35yhMTY

Update on 8/13: rH5AgjpTd6fNhTTA4ATnSpznAzsS94JjKh - 14.5M rLTsSbzhrr1MAXSWpzFBtS2bi4dFb6bpWL - 2.5M rMwhLJ8VvvZq2PsfC9PBigZY5UWDj5jpHr - 50M rJfoXNyaaWAiag3R7t9oa3UqyRa663qTrc -

Posted Images

55 minutes ago, Professor Hantzen said:

While this data and research is interesting - no one should assume that because a particular account or group of connected accounts account is selling, no other account operated by the same entity (but as yet unconnected to these ones by researchers) is not buying or has not already bought to balance that out.

For example, this is a high profile account - having that much XRP in one place, with all eyes on it, and given the situation of XRP having increased in value by so much since the original purchase, is flat-out a major security risk.  As such, the owner would be wise to obfuscate their ownership by running the XRP through exchanges, and selling it there, whilst simultaneously buying it again elsewhere (possibly with another currency they may have a more prudent reason to liquidate).  Then they can shovel the new XRP into cold wallets from those other exchanges (at different times, and in different amounts), to maintain their anonymity.  This is an ordinary plausible scenario, and would look exactly like this "bearwhale" behaviour, yet be indicative of an intention to continue to continue to hold a large amount of XRP, not to sell it.

Further, any XRP on the buy side may have *already* been bought at a much cheaper price, and the whale is only selling now to rebalance to the original holding amount, possibly at a profit - and no one has any way of knowing whether the operator of the account is doing this at a profit, flat or at a loss.

To me, the least favourable and most unlikely scenario is that someone with that much money is ending up with less XRP than they started with - at such an ill-advisable time to do that.

If someone *was* really keen to get rid of their XRP and tank the price, it also makes no sense to meter it out slowly like this.  Just tank it in a big dump (and short on margin if they're ballsy I guess...).  They obviously care about not hurting the market too much with their moves, or they wouldn't bother doing this slowly.  It's also unlikely the trickle indicates an intention to maximise their price - if they wanted to maximise their price, they'd sell at a better time.

I like all this research and speculation - but its important to realise that no matter how far any of us dig into the ledger, there's always the possibility of missing information that can completely turn any conclusion on their head.  As I say, given the incomplete nature of the information - and as others have observed - selling such a large amount would be unwise and make little sense right now.  That we're just seeing one side of a transfer is therefore way more likely to me.

...way more likely?

Occam's razor.

Sometimes there's no need to try as hard as you did in this post. Sometimes, someone who likely turned 3 million dollars into 1 billion, really just wants to sell.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, corak said:

...way more likely?

Occam's razor.

Sometimes there's no need to try as hard as you did in this post. Sometimes, someone who likely turned 3 million dollars into 1 billion, really just wants to sell.

I believe that's highly unlikely.  Any entity that turned 3 million dollars into 1 billion, isn't likely to throw away 2 - 15 billion more by selling at this time.

I'm also applying Occam's razor - the datapoints you may be missing in a counter assessment is that the entity in question is likely smart, good with money, and has a demonstrable understanding of the long-term value of XRP.  (Unless we assume buying early and holding this long was also "mistake"...)

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Professor Hantzen said:

I believe that's highly unlikely.  Any entity that turned 3 million dollars into 1 billion, isn't likely to throw away 2 - 15 billion more by selling at this time.

I'm also applying Occam's razor - the datapoints you may be missing in a counter assessment is that the entity in question is likely smart, good with money, and has a demonstrable understanding of the long-term value of XRP.  (Unless we assume buying early and holding this long was also "mistake"...)

It's by chance that the volume of transfers correlates so strongly with volume spikes in real trading all the time?

It's by chance every time a lot of this XRP stack moved, XRP lost ground against BTC further, despite all evidence that it gains, or about to gain real world adoption?

If he's just shuffling XRP between accounts, for mere obfuscation purposes, why do it only now? At the height of the bubble, with everyone's so busy looking at crypto? It's the worst time to do it. He had the XRP for a very long time. and to spread it over 3 months just to fool everyone... that's trying WAY TOO HARD for something as mundane as shuffling some XRP around. Do you even realize that if after all this, he didn't actually sell anything, it implies an even worse outcome?

Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Professor Hantzen said:

(Unless we assume buying early and holding this long was also "mistake"...

It's demonstrably not a mistake if you turned a few millions into a billion, what the hell are you talking about??

Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, corak said:

It's demonstrably not a mistake if you turned a few millions into a billion, what the hell are you talking about??

agreed -- it's this bizarre "HODL forever" mentality

if that guy were to hold until, say, it was not 1b but 10b... they'd still argue "bu... but if he HODLs more he might make 100 billion!" and on and on

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, corak said:

It's by chance that the volume of transfers correlates so strongly with volume spikes in real trading all the time?

It's by chance every time a lot of this XRP stack moved, XRP lost ground against BTC further, despite all evidence that it gains, or about to gain real world adoption?

If he's just shuffling XRP between accounts, for mere obfuscation purposes, why do it only now? At the height of the bubble, with everyone's so busy looking at crypto? It's the worst time to do it. He had the XRP for a very long time. and to spread it over 3 months just to fool everyone... that's trying WAY TOO HARD for something as mundane as shuffling some XRP around. Do you even realize that if after all this, he didn't actually sell anything, it implies an even worse outcome?

Correlations with volume spikes in trade against what currency?  On which exchanges?

What's the significance of XRP losing ground against BTC?  BTC forms a small fraction of total XRP traded volume (also: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ripple/#markets), and has done for over a year.  How many other crypto/fiat have you run this comparison against to single out BTC as of the greatest significance?  How has BTC performed against other crypto and fiat that also trades in high volumes against XRP during the same time frame to place such a conclusion into appropriate context?

Whoever/whatever is behind these accounts has held for years, and began moving funds almost immediately after the price suddenly shot up massively and without prior warning - taking everyone by surprise, including founders.  To me, it would seem the first opportunity to recalibrate to the new price.  I don't understand why it would be a "worse outcome" to continue to hold, for an entity that clearly views investments in terms of years, not weeks.  I'm also not assuming I could know *exactly how much* they've bought or sold, maybe they did sell some at the peak?  Selling 20% of their holding at the peak would be the same as selling 100% of their holding now.  You're assuming their intention was to "sell" as early as January.  Why throw away billions trickling it out into the correction after an obvious spike?

Most importantly, I see absolutely nothing in the fundamentals to support an assumption that someone who believed in XRP since the beginning, and steadfastly held 1% of the entire supply for years, would suddenly want to liquidate it all now.  (Indeed, it would seem far more likely they would want to accumulate more.)

12 minutes ago, corak said:

It's demonstrably not a mistake if you turned a few millions into a billion, what the hell are you talking about??

"mistake" was placed in quotes.  To put it another way - if you *don't* take it as a given that the owner of these accounts is smart, good with money, and has a demonstrable understanding of the long-term value of XRP, then their initial purchase must have been a happy accident made by the same "idiot" who would choose to sell now, at the worst possible time.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Professor Hantzen said:

"mistake" was placed in quotes.  To put it another way - if you *don't* take it as a given that the owner of these accounts is smart, good with money, and has a demonstrable understanding of the long-term value of XRP, then their initial purchase must have been a happy accident made by the same "idiot" who would choose to sell now, at the worst possible time.

"worst possible time" is clearly subjective opinion

price might go lower ; their situation might be they need cash ; they might want a few ferraris ; they may not see a future for xrp now ; they might ... blablabla

it's arrogant to assume to know others' reasonings behind buys/sells, and we all hae to sell AT SOME POINT if we want to profit

EDIT: also another ASSUMPTION you made is that this is the entirety of their holdings! maybe they want to secure some or MOST now, and have some more packed away for a rainy day -- but you will give the same argument at any price

Edited by Guest
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Professor Hantzen said:

"mistake" was placed in quotes.  To put it another way - if you *don't* take it as a given that the owner of these accounts is smart, good with money, and has a demonstrable understanding of the long-term value of XRP, then their initial purchase must have been a happy accident made by the same "idiot" who would choose to sell now, at the worst possible time.

No one is an idiot for taking a 300x profit, you're out of your mind, any exceptionally good investment like this one is at least in part a happy accident.

Quote

Correlations with volume spikes in trade against what currency?  On which exchanges?

Correlation between the rate in which this XRP has moved and XRP's vol/24h (either globally, or on Bitstamp + Bitfinex where he's selling).

Quote

 

What's the significance of XRP losing ground against BTC?

 

It is just a very rough benchmark for how the rest of the crypto market is expected to move, barring other external forces. Coins that are doing poorly or losing visibility will fade away against BTC. It doesn't matter for that purpose how much direct trade there is between the coin and BTC.

Quote

 

  I don't understand why it would be a "worse outcome"  to continue to hold

 

For us, not for him! Because if he continued to hold and we got rekt like this anyway, there is no relief in sight when the "transfer" is over, and we will have to suffer this selling pressure for real at some point in the future.

Edited by corak
Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, corak said:

For us, not for him! Because if he continued to hold and we got rekt like this anyway, there is no relief in sight when the "transfer" is over, and we will have to suffer this selling pressure for real at some point in the future.

@rippledigital used to argue to me when i joined this forum, that it would have been better in the early days when he was around, for ripple to have let jed dump much more to relieve some of his holdings there and then rather than the ensuing market drama that took years (still going on!) and all the uncertainty thereafter that meant years of stagnant price, before the lockup/deal

i'm not saying i agree/disagree -- in fact i see both sides (one counter being that very early adopters who wanted to cash out soon got totally 'rekt' -- but they did get rekt anyway so... at least others could have scooped xrp up at 0.001 or 0.0001 or something! then again, then THEY would later dump at prices that we deem to still be low, so... and on and on...) :D

Edited by Guest
Link to post
Share on other sites

I was squarely in the camp that they should have dumped (a part of it at least). It's way way too top heavy. It's fine if Ripple itself has a distribution plan of the escrow right into the financial system, but the public portion of the supply is so completely dominated by founders, early investors and whales, it's much worse than even Bitcoin, which is itself terribly concentrated at the top. I suspect this will keep valuation from increasing in a sustainable manner until it's distributed more widely.

A person with 5k-10k XRP might hold out for the $50 payoff, but people who were already made fresh billionnaires (or even a cool $100M) out of this, probably won't bother, resulting in dumps like this one - I imagine that there are more of these to come.

Edited by corak
Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.