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A chart of aggregate XRP holdings by the BearWhale


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oh you mean what % is it of total traded volume? but then, would you only count USD/XRP or everything? $10M worth of XRP per day was never a huge portion of globally traded volume. But it was significant at times - he dumped nearly 80 million into the Coinbase rumor for example. 

 

Also remember we see when the XRP moves into the exchange, not exactly when it is sold,  there may be 1-2 days of delay, and it's even less accurate for the left side of the chart because there were a few more accounts on the way

Edited by corak
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Just cause I'm bored and I already had almost all the code I needed to generate it, here's a chart of the XRP held by the collection of accounts known as the BearWhale, originating at address raZt9CZH

Actually my thoughts exactly! Chris Larsen supposedly donated 7bn XRP to RippleWorks   1) Address that activated BW account: https://bithomp.com/explorer/rwSy4ZmW1hvpziYyeVQ35yhMTY

Update on 8/13: rH5AgjpTd6fNhTTA4ATnSpznAzsS94JjKh - 14.5M rLTsSbzhrr1MAXSWpzFBtS2bi4dFb6bpWL - 2.5M rMwhLJ8VvvZq2PsfC9PBigZY5UWDj5jpHr - 50M rJfoXNyaaWAiag3R7t9oa3UqyRa663qTrc -

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2 minutes ago, corak said:

oh you mean what % is it of total traded volume? but then, would you only count USD/XRP or everything? $10M worth of XRP per day was never a huge portion of globally traded volume. But it was significant at times - he dumped nearly 80 million into the Coinbase rumor for example. 

I mean the correlations between transfers and exchange volumes are going to lag! Also a correlation by itself wouldn't mean much if it also seems to exist with other accounts. Do the comparison over a large number of accounts to see which ones are statistically less probable....

As a pretty crude way to make a Whale Detector.

 

(queue wonky sci-fi sounding air raid alarms)

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1 minute ago, corak said:

oh you mean what % is it of total traded volume? but then, would you only count USD/XRP or everything? $10M worth of XRP per day was never a huge portion of globally traded volume. But it was significant at times - he dumped nearly 80 million into the Coinbase rumor for example. 

What I was getting at was if *** ******* was doing it, he is restricted to I believe 5% of daily volume, so if the percentage is higher then it must be someone else.

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Just now, Vader-DeWelt said:

I mean the correlations between transfers and exchange volumes are going to lag! Also a correlation by itself wouldn't mean much if it also seems to exist with other accounts. Do the comparison over a large number of accounts to see which ones are statistically less probable....

As a pretty crude way to make a Whale Detector.

 

(queue wonky sci-fi sounding air raid alarms)

it would have to be much higher resolution than the data I have.

Anyway, it doesn't necessarily lag... There's often a buffer amount of XRP inside the exchange. It's not like it drops to zero first, and only then they restock it. So you can't really tell precisely what quantities are dumped on the exchange at a given time just by the time of these xrp transfers + some average latency value

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Just now, corak said:

Anyway, it doesn't necessarily lag... There's often a buffer amount of XRP inside the exchange. It's not like it drops to zero first, and only then they restock it. So you can't really tell precisely what quantities are dumped on the exchange at a given time just by the time of these xrp transfers + some average latency value

yeah that makes more sense! never mind...

still getting that data into R and plotting the cross correlations as a function of lag might be interesting

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58 minutes ago, Mr_McFearson said:

What if the bearwhale accumulated his stash with a use of USDT(could be fraudulant $$ created out of thin air), and dumps his stash carefully as new (real money)income comes in to siphon it out? <_> 

you have no clue how tether works do you

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42 minutes ago, Trickery said:

What I was getting at was if *** ******* was doing it, he is restricted to I believe 5% of daily volume, so if the percentage is higher then it must be someone else.

The first deal had the following conditions:

https://www.coindesk.com/jed-mccaleb-ripple-labs-strike-deal-avert-9-billion-xrp-sell/

Quote

Terms and conditions

The deal sets firm limitations on the amount of XRP McCaleb can sell over a seven-year period, with the timeline allowing McCaleb more freedom to sell his XRP holdings over time.

The remainder of the schedule prevents McCaleb from selling more than:

$20,000 per week during the second, third and fourth years

750m XRP per year for the fifth and sixth years

1bn XRP per year for the seventh year

2bn XRP per year after the seventh year.

The second deal had the following conditions:

https://www.coindesk.com/ripple-jed-mccaleb-settle-suit-over-1-million-in-disputed-funds/

Quote

As part of the settlement, McCaleb has sold his equity in Ripple, and has agreed to sale controls on 5.3bn XRP owned by him and his children. An additional 2bn XRP will be donated to an as-yet-undisclosed charitable fund.

The sale controls are tied to daily volume in XRP markets. For the first year, according to Ripple, McCaleb will be unable to sell more than 0.5% of average daily volume "for each day of the week, including weekends and holidays".

During the second and third years of the agreement, this amount grows to 0.75%, while it accounts for 1.0% in the fourth year. Beyond the fourth year, the amount is set to 1.5%.

 

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2 minutes ago, Zedy44 said:

if u wanna see f its jed, just pull a XLM chart next to it and load it with the same data, see if on those moments the XLM price went up. ghehe

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18 minutes ago, TexasHodlem said:

@corak Given that XRP has been sent to multiple accounts at Bitstamp, this would suggest to me that the whale made some p2p transactions to individuals whose sales you've included. Is there more of a reason that you think this is linked to an individual?

We are talking about 3 or 4 accounts at most here. What is it if not an individual? Ripple isn't distributing that fast, an FI (like say SBI) wouldn't be constantly shoving XRPs into Bitstamp and Bitfinex, a market maker is XRP-neutral and doesn't normally end each day with a deficit of a few million XRPs. Not many other options.

 

RE: p2p transactions, not sure what you mean, it's pretty clear the XRP is being moved into exchanges to be sold, and at a faster rate when the volume is high. 

Edited by corak
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10 minutes ago, Zedy44 said:

This is probably not the place for this, but I was thinking about Jed and the unfortunate situation he might be in. I understand that he did much to annoy a lot of people. However! There is a certain amount of hubris in believing so completely in your personal abilities that you tackle the sort of coding projects he does. Obviously it takes a large team of people to do well what he tries to do alone. I'm thinking of the unintentional Stellar fork, after attempting to criticize xrp consensus protocol. Also I'm thinking of those kludgie recursive mutexes that show up in rippled and probably other crypto c++ projects which make it kind of hard to track down what's going on with the multithreading/ job queue.

But someone has to stick their neck out. It's like those people who made the first trecks to the South Pole and half their team died. Someone had to do it.

That's right. Jed's a sort of Earnest Shackleton on a surfboard. Goddamn hero. They'll be naming whiskeys after him in a few decades. When we're living on Mars.

Edited by Vader-DeWelt
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3 hours ago, corak said:

Just cause I'm bored and I already had almost all the code I needed to generate it, here's a chart of the XRP held by the collection of accounts known as the BearWhale, originating at address raZt9CZHwHiAPZPWGLZ4bQJG91Jmdbjccm with about 1.08 billion XRP.

Chart is from start of 2018 to around yesterday.

I couldn't conveniently overlap a price/vol chart into it but most of the heavy dumping was done into volume spikes, usually during rallies or bounce backs. He dumped a lot in the last 48 hours, we had high volume, the dump before was into the Coinbase rumor, etc. 

The BearWhale has about 340 million XRP remaining. At current rate, the dump should complete by the end of April.

bearwhale.thumb.png.3fdd9be7d98e938d196ec8cb58bd89bc.png

Couldn’t this be Ripple’s account that sells into volume?

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