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A chart of aggregate XRP holdings by the BearWhale


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46 minutes ago, WillGetThere said:

Still the main question (at leas for me) is why would a BearWhale vest at 0.4 circa? A BearWhale investor owing such a stake should be better (than an average investor like me) positioned to know insights / forecast fair XRP market price.

Hence, as I see it: option 1 - this BearWhale is so rich it doesn't care about XRP price; option 2 - no XRP price increase to be expected anytime soon because current price is smth close to the price such BearWhale forecastes/knows; option 3 - ???.

P.S. I do not believe in option 1 TBH. 

P.P.S. I don't believe Jed is selling his stake to pumpndump Stellar as this bear's market is not the right time to do so. 

P.P.P.S. If this guy/guys is reading this tread he/they are having a good laugh at us here..:)

Option 4 - BearWhale is an early investor / Ripple employee who is being provided a stake in Ripple the company in exchange for selling tokens out to markets, in order to maintain a low price for purchases from the financial sector that can take place without moving the value of XRP. 

i.e. Maybe every XRP they drop on the market is being purchased at known pre-set quantities by FI's.

Edited by ADingoAteMyXRP
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Just cause I'm bored and I already had almost all the code I needed to generate it, here's a chart of the XRP held by the collection of accounts known as the BearWhale, originating at address raZt9CZH

Actually my thoughts exactly! Chris Larsen supposedly donated 7bn XRP to RippleWorks   1) Address that activated BW account: https://bithomp.com/explorer/rwSy4ZmW1hvpziYyeVQ35yhMTY

Update on 8/13: rH5AgjpTd6fNhTTA4ATnSpznAzsS94JjKh - 14.5M rLTsSbzhrr1MAXSWpzFBtS2bi4dFb6bpWL - 2.5M rMwhLJ8VvvZq2PsfC9PBigZY5UWDj5jpHr - 50M rJfoXNyaaWAiag3R7t9oa3UqyRa663qTrc -

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11 hours ago, DreXRP said:

BearWhale was a top 10 holder with his billions of xrp. With his about 15,000,000 remaining xrp he should not play a major role in the bear market ... maybe soon as a bull???

https://ledger.exposed/rich-stats

 

Screenshot_20181017-084922_Samsung Internet.jpg

Screenshot_20181017-084954_Samsung Internet.jpg

I think the effects of BW running out of XRP are extremely understated. The reason a lot of news rallies fail to ignite into an actual pump is a massive amount of selling killing the momentum. This is very different than XRP II sales from Ripple directly to financial partners. 

10% of circulating supply has been dumped into the markets. I wouldn't be surprised if this 10% being sold at strategic moments could have an exponential effect on the price and market sentiment around XRP. 

We shall see during the next rally when his balance is 0 XRP. 

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Thinking about, who would be dumb enough to be selling so aggressively now, to the point of reducing the value of their own holdings?

I remember just before Ripple got Jed's XRP locked up and under a legal contract, he gave a bunch of XRP to his cousin as a way to try and get around or avoid that. This was at about the same time as that infamous $1 million USD transaction selling XRP and buying Stellars. Anyone else remember this, and happen to remember how much Jed sent to his cousin?

So, maybe someone is so strapped for cash that they need a few $100,000 per week or whatever the selling pace is. This extreme just selling behavior just smells so stupid that it must be someone in a highly emotional state, like an angry ex-wife selling the house for 1/2 price, or selling the motorcycle for "$100 come get it by 5pm"

Either way, RippleNet is nowhere near mature yet, so I think selling now would be a bummer. Once these systems mature, the utility value of XRP will evident and mature also.

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12 minutes ago, KarmaCoverage said:

Thinking about, who would be dumb enough to be selling so aggressively now, to the point of reducing the value of their own holdings?

I remember just before Ripple got Jed's XRP locked up and under a legal contract, he gave a bunch of XRP to his cousin as a way to try and get around or avoid that. This was at about the same time as that infamous $1 million USD transaction selling XRP and buying Stellars. Anyone else remember this, and happen to remember how much Jed sent to his cousin?

So, maybe someone is so strapped for cash that they need a few $100,000 per week or whatever the selling pace is. This extreme just selling behavior just smells so stupid that it must be someone in a highly emotional state, like an angry ex-wife selling the house for 1/2 price, or selling the motorcycle for "$100 come get it by 5pm"

Either way, RippleNet is nowhere near mature yet, so I think selling now would be a bummer. Once these systems mature, the utility value of XRP will evident and mature also.

The entity sold 1 billion XRP all the way down from ATH, so a few $100'000 per week is hardly the selling pace. 

Starting near the beginning of Jan 2018 looks a lot like the ending of a contractual agreement to me. 

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3 minutes ago, XRP-JAG said:

Do we know / estimate how much the total liquidated XRP had gained the seller in terms of $USD ?

It'd be interesting to calculate that. XRP stayed above .90 until March and kept touching it through April. 

Half of holdings were dropped in Jan/Feb according to the original chart by @corak (thanks again for this great thread).

As an estimation, in USD that's 10 figures. 

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17 minutes ago, Atomic1221 said:

I think the conclusion is obvious.

Nice.  Excellent work good sir or madam.  Thanks very much for sharing that.  It's very convincing.

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2 hours ago, Atomic1221 said:

Actually my thoughts exactly!

Chris Larsen supposedly donated 7bn XRP to RippleWorks

 

1) Address that activated BW account:

https://bithomp.com/explorer/rwSy4ZmW1hvpziYyeVQ35yhMTYtEEpZPtA

This address was activated with 6.60Bn. 

Of the 6.60Bn; 5.09Bn was spent activating two accounts, one of which was BW:

BW account (with 1.089 Bn)

https://bithomp.com/explorer/raZt9CZHwHiAPZPWGLZ4bQJG91Jmdbjccm

Secondary Account: (4.011 Bn)

https://bithomp.com/explorer/rJ91aVJryEySEcUwd8rLPNYSLSBvSSwZfK

2) The account that funded 1) with a 6.60Bn XRP balance was:

https://bithomp.com/explorer/r4EKQxzz2XMaSBjWPfH119tj7yA37sweEQ

 

The account that funded the 6.60Bn account is one of the “ x.distributor.1 “ accounts who’s original holdings totaled 27bn XRP = around 70% of circulating supply.

3) The exact account that funded the 6.60Bn account (which in turn funded BW) is called  x.fortknox.6 and had originally 9bn in holdings (one of 3 accounts each with 9bn XRP)

https://bithomp.com/explorer/rn4o6i8BrwhwmyjLntKsW4DZnk76dZXocS

——

What does all this mean? Well 3) started with 9bn and spent 7.1bn activating secondary accounts back in 2013. This was quite a while before the RW donation announcement but I still think it’s possible.

7bn has actually never been “spent” from a single account except from this account. Only 3 accounts have over 7bn and this is one of 3. The other 2 don’t ever have transactions that could equal 7bn

Also given the amount of circulating supply = 39 Bn ; that means that only 12 Bn of circulating didn’t belong to one of these 3 accounts at any given time. 

Given that there’s the following accounts:

5.1bn for Ripple Holdings accounts (rMQ9...)

1bn Bittrex (rPVM...)

....

Basically if you add up all the known accounts you’ll come to the conclusion that the ONLY WAY that 7bn was donated would have been from one of the 3 Fort Knox accounts based on supply. There’s just no other way for it to happen. What I’m saying here is, with the exception of the x.distributor.1 accounts,  even if a all the top 50 accounts with still unidentified owners pooled their balance together, it wouldn’t come close to funding 7bn XRP.

Please keep in mind, for extremely large accounts there would be a trail of account ownership relationships for such a large transfer. Meaning, even if 7bn came from multiple accounts; it would still need to be linked to the top 50 or so accounts for it to have been possible at all. 

So given my original post and the information above, I think the conclusion is obvious. IF Chris Larsen did donate the 7bn it would have HAD to come from one of those 3 accounts. And fact one of those accounts activated two accounts for an amount of around 7.1bn XRP (and only two accounts), I think we can safely guess that CL indeed did donate 7bn and BW is in fact related to RippleWorks.

Also, x.distributor.1 was a genesis account that was “given” XRP before ledger 32580 which is the beggining of Ripple Ledger history. This 27bn likely belongs to 3 Ripple Founders. 

If someone can prove me wrong here, I’ll delete this but this my best conclusion given the data at hand. RippleWorks was founded in 2014 and these transactions are from late 2013. Announcement was much later but I bet CL wanted to make sure Ripple was a smashing success before donating a large stake of his net worth to charity.

And like I said before, charities will generally use a trustee to sell at times of high-volume in order to complete their obligation of a “best-effort”.

Edit: It would really reinforce this idea if RW made an announcement in the coming months with project timelines or something along these lines since it has completed selling off the entire stack in its only active account....well, that’s assuming everything I said above is correct :)

 

Some further evidence:

1) If CL did donate 17.5% or Circulating Supply of the security he co-founded; it would be obligatory for RW to use a trustee to avoid any accusations of price manipulation or impropriety. 

2) Bitstamp is also use for Jed’s cashouts and I believe most of the Ripple Exec’s selling is done on there. Minor evidence but true.

So are you telling me we can expect to have another 6 billion XRP dumped on us at some point? Because I might actually sell out if I believe that.

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