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corak

A chart of aggregate XRP holdings by the BearWhale

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1 hour ago, corak said:

Just cause I'm bored and I already had almost all the code I needed to generate it, here's a chart of the XRP held by the collection of accounts known as the BearWhale, originating at address raZt9CZHwHiAPZPWGLZ4bQJG91Jmdbjccm with about 1.08 billion XRP.

Chart is from start of 2018 to around yesterday.

I couldn't conveniently overlap a price/vol chart into it but most of the heavy dumping was done into volume spikes, usually during rallies or bounce backs. He dumped a lot in the last 48 hours, we had high volume, the dump before was into the Coinbase rumor, etc. 

The BearWhale has about 340 million XRP remaining. At current rate, the dump should complete by the end of April.

bearwhale.thumb.png.3fdd9be7d98e938d196ec8cb58bd89bc.png

Nice work. I'm curious, could you make one including 2017 as well? For example I'm curious what his (or her) behaviour was around bike spikes like april '17 and december '17 (did he stop for a while during those spikes or did he temporarily stop right bedore the spikes causing the rise, let's say because of a holiday:)). Maybe mapping the price in 1 chart to see if there are correlations could be intersting as well.

Edited by Amigo

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4 minutes ago, Toroth said:

Is there a way to find out how it's being sold (exchanges, personal wallets, ect.)?

I mentioned it in the OP I think. The outflow is directed at a small number of accounts on Bitstamp and Bitfinex. There's no way to trace it any further...

Edited by corak

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Just now, Amigo said:

 

Nice work. I'm curious, couls you make one including 2017 aa well? For example I'm curious what his (or her) behaviour was around bike spikes like april '17 and december '17 (did he stop for a while during those spikes or did he temporarily top right bedore the spikes causing the rise, let's say because of a holiday:)). Maybe map the price in 1 chart to see if there is a correlation.

This stash has been shuffled around a little bit but has not touched any exchanges or some other form of trading activity before Jan 2018

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9 minutes ago, Vader-DeWelt said:

Heh. BW could wait until the account was empty, and watch the ensuing pump

and then sell the other account he's been hiding. I mean isn't that what you'd do if you were ....

 

        .... BEAR WHALE

Yeah imagine if all those exchange accounts never really sold anything, then when it rallies in May, he will sell it the way the BTC BearWhale from 2014 did :biggrin:

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1 hour ago, tulo said:

The speculators will say it's Ripple trying to manipulate the price :)

What if the bearwhale accumulated his stash with a use of USDT(could be fraudulant $$ created out of thin air), and dumps his stash carefully as new (real money)income comes in to siphon it out? <_> 

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2 minutes ago, corak said:

Yeah imagine if all those exchange accounts never really sold anything, then when it rallies in May, he will sell it the way the BTC BearWhale from 2014 did :biggrin:

You'd be nuts to leave that stuff on those exchanges. Unless you owned the exchanges.

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Just now, Mr_McFearson said:

What if the bearwhale accumulated his stash with a use of USDT(could be fraudulant $$ created out of thin air), and dumps his stash carefully as new (real money)income comes in to siphon it out? <_> 

This stash predates the existence of USDT I believe.

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Just now, corak said:

This stash predates the existence of USDT I believe.

That would actually be a relief.

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Just now, Vader-DeWelt said:

You'd be nuts to leave that stuff on those exchanges. Unless you owned the exchanges.

Agree, it was mostly just a joke. I honestly think it's being sold off.

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10 minutes ago, Trickery said:

@corak could you do a correlation of sells to market volume as a percentage? This would give a pretty good indication of whether or not it is ...........

Got really crappy vol data, but it'll do. Also: early part of the blue chart is choppier because I didn't track enough sub-accounts. It should've been smoother like in the right side - so it doesn't accurately show the rate of movement into the exchanges themselves. With that said -

bearwhale.thumb.png.183de81fe5556c361d6b5cf233635ad5.png

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12 minutes ago, Trickery said:

@corak could you do a correlation of sells to market volume as a percentage? This would give a pretty good indication of whether or not it is ...........

Also run the correlations for a large number of random accounts which also are doing (smaller) transfers. For comparison...

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