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Richretard

Scenario - how XRP failed

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The aim of this topic is to generate some critical thoughts of what could go wrong with XRP. There are plenty of topics about it reaching $589, $1000 or much more, but I like to see the other side of the argument. This topic is not intended as FUD, I do believe that XRP is a good investment.

The scenario

It's the 22nd of June 2021. Some of the veteran members log on to XRPChat and see an announcement that XRPchat is shutting down. It's another reminder that Ripple and XRP have failed to deliver its promise. Two days ago it was announced that Ripple was acquired by another blockchain company, probably to get hold of the high qualified staff (at least, it might explain why David Schwartz got quite a lot of shares from the acquiring company). Three weeks ago XRP broke the resistance at $1 and ever since it has lost another 30%. The price of XRP in BTC has dropped to 350 sats, as BTC just broke the $200k barrier for the first time. It's also the first time in history that market cap of Analcoin is higher than XRPs marketcap.

Some of the members at Xrpchat got quite lucky. They sold a considerable amount of their stash when XRP hit its all time high of $5 in January 2019. This ATH was achieved on the back of BTC breaching the $100k for the first time. Also the ones that were really early in the game still have a considerable profit. Many more of us held on to our stacks, hoping for the tide to change. Some of the people that bought in the runup to the ATH ended up in financial problems, as they were never able to sell their stacks at anything close to their purchasing price.

What happened?

I am not saying that this is going to happen, but if this scenario occurs, what has happened in between? Why have XRP and Ripple failed to deliver their promise. Any thoughts on possible events/market changes, that might cause XRP to fail in a world where crypto is making a major impact?

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16 minutes ago, CryptoGerrie said:

Reaching $10 usd by end of year

This is also what I believe :)

I think failure could be defined as: another product/idea/approach than Ripple and its products is used to make cross-border payments faster and cheaper.

Edited by Richretard

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Existing SWIFT customers staying with SWIFT and upgrading to GPI or Stellar and IBM hit it off and gain a foothold.

Or some newer technology that makes blockchain extinct if xrp adoption takes too long.

Edited by Freaky

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This argument is stupid.

In your scenario, around 10 months from now, Bitcoin at $100k equals XRP at $5. Correct me if I’m wrong but there’s less correlation between BTC/XRP prices today than there was, say, two months ago. For your scenario to make sense, Bitcoin’s value should have been around $60k in January when XRP hit $3. And right now XRP is at $.83 so BTC should be at $16.6k, but it’s not.

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9 minutes ago, JoeXrp said:

This argument is stupid.

In your scenario, around 10 months from now, Bitcoin at $100k equals XRP at $5. Correct me if I’m wrong but there’s less correlation between BTC/XRP prices today than there was, say, two months ago. For your scenario to make sense, Bitcoin’s value should have been around $60k in January when XRP hit $3. And right now XRP is at $.83 so BTC should be at $16.6k, but it’s not.

I dont think his post was about making the scenario super realistic, but rather about investigating what the main risks for Ripple to achieving their strategic objectives are.

Edited by Coretex

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2 hours ago, Richretard said:

This is also what I believe :)

I think failure could be defined as: another product/idea/approach than Ripple and its products is used to make cross-border payments faster and cheaper.

err.....Stellar....in 2020?

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Keep in mind that stellar's focus is completely different from ripple they are focusing on peer to peer payments while ripple are focusing on cross border payments,the reason why we are so confident with our zerps investment is because there are simply no competition for ripple,sure SWIFT could upgrade their system(in this case GPI)but they're way behind us,one can even say that it is much more easier for them to integrate their system with that of ripple's rather than pouring millions worth of resources to their own project,but I do believe that looking for the cause of xrp's downfall is important too,in my scenario it would be the failure of xRapid pilots or banks are eager to switch to xRapid but unable to do so due to regulation

Edited by Tiamat

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If you want to know the threats to ripple and XRP,  then you should phrase your original post that way

You went to the effort of putting together a story that will incite negative responses, most people will read and move on......

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8 minutes ago, Krypto said:

If you want to know the threats to ripple and XRP,  then you should phrase your original post that way

You went to the effort of putting together a story that will incite negative responses, most people will read and move on......

Yep

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55 minutes ago, Tiamat said:

I do believe that looking for the cause of xrp's downfall is important too,in my scenario it would be the failure of xRapid pilots or banks are eager to switch to xRapid but unable to do so due to regulation

This is far more believable than the OP.

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45 minutes ago, Tiamat said:

Keep in mind that stellar's focus is completely different from ripple they are focusing on peer to peer payments while ripple are focusing on cross border payments,the reason why we are so confident with our zerps investment is because there are simply no competition for ripple,sure SWIFT could upgrade their system(in this case GPI)but they're way behind us,one can even say that it is much more easier for them to integrate their system with that of ripple's rather than pouring millions worth of resources to their own project,but I do believe that looking for the cause of xrp's downfall is important too,in my scenario it would be the failure of xRapid pilots or banks are eager to switch to xRapid but unable to do so due to regulation

Agree here about the failure of XRapid pilots though with Cuallix showing great results it seems that possibility is almost zero.  And its also true that we need defined regulation for the global institutions to make an investment but its in their best interest because they stand to profit immensely from its adoption.  Or looking at it from the other side, adoption by smaller competitors will have them losing market share in a big way and quickly given the savings demonstrated by use of XRapid.  In other words, the big banks will facilitate regulation like their asses are on fire if smaller competitive institutions are adopting and demonstrating success with the use of XRapid.  It seems we are already seeing this with XCurrent.  XRapid is likely to trail XCurrent for most if not all customers on a 6-24 month delay depending on the complexity of the application and conservativeness of the organization.  

The only thing I can think of is if Bitcoin were to completely crash to near zero today for some reason.  Still, I'm not totally convinced XRP would be collateral damage but it might stifle volume and liquidity to the point where institutions just can't commit to usage.  XRP's price would likely be well under .20 and maybe not enough of a "warchest" for them to pump incentive to those institutions.  Looking back on the past few months, if the market was to avoid the correction and we were sailing in the $4-5 range today with daily volumes in the $5-8B range I'd say that its likely we'd already have enough institutional investment that we'd now be separated from the hip of BTC.  With the correction that happened I'm only 80% sure we'd be fine if BTC completely collapsed today.  

Sorry but I just don't have the imagination and vision necessary to see other points of failure at this point.  I'd be curious what others have to say.  

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