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nomoneyx

Speculating max price of XRP

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I was reading an article about JPM estimating that between 2009-2017 Bitcoin had a cumulative amount of $6 billion invested resulting in a market cap of $330 billion.   In that time Ethereum had a cumulative amount of $2 billion invested resulting in a market cap of $45 billion.  This information supports the idea that market cap is almost useless when determining a "value" for a particular crypto.

Assuming JPM correctly estimated these values, a big assumption, I estimated that xrp currently has a cumulative value of $1.6 billion.  If the cumulative value of xrp increased to $6 billion the resulting market cap would be $330 billion and xrp would have a price of around $8.46.  So extrapolating from there if $70-$80 billion cumulative value were to flow into xrp the price could theoretically reach $100 with a market cap of $3.9 trillion.   Which is very possible if Ripple achieves the goals they have set for xrp.   

Just something to think about when someone says "a price of $XXX is impossible for xrp to reach".      

 

 

 

jpmEst.JPG

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Hahaha...i thought now we rise with a few cent and already ATH speculation come...now i was wrong ;)

 

Edited by RTKen

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8 minutes ago, nomoneyx said:

I was reading an article about JPM estimating that between 2009-2017 Bitcoin had a cumulative amount of $6 billion invested resulting in a market cap of $330 billion.   In that time Ethereum had a cumulative amount of $2 billion invested resulting in a market cap of $45 billion.  This information supports the idea that market cap is almost useless when determining a "value" for a particular crypto.

Assuming JPM correctly estimated these values, a big assumption, I estimated that xrp currently has a cumulative value of $1.6 billion.  If the cumulative value of xrp increased to $6 billion the resulting market cap would be $330 billion and xrp would have a price of around $8.46.  So extrapolating from there if $70-$80 billion cumulative value were to flow into xrp the price could theoretically reach $100 with a market cap of $3.9 trillion.   Which is very possible if Ripple achieves the goals they have set for xrp.   

Just something to think about when someone says "a price of $XXX is impossible for xrp to reach".      

 

 

 

jpmEst.JPG

It shows what a meaningless measure marketcap is, particularly if most investors got in low and the price goes high. 

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49 minutes ago, Geospectrum said:

It shows what a meaningless measure marketcap is, particularly if most investors got in low and the price goes high. 

I'm soooooo long XRP, but I don't get how market cap is meaningless.  I get that I only started investing in crypto the past year, and the old-school side of me that's been investing in traditional stocks for 30 years may just be, well, old-school.  Still, as much as I'd love to see XRP moon, the old-school part of my mentality just says that a "market cap" of +$3 trillion just seems ridiculous.

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20 hours ago, BarryMcHockenue said:

I'm soooooo long XRP, but I don't get how market cap is meaningless.  I get that I only started investing in crypto the past year, and the old-school side of me that's been investing in traditional stocks for 30 years may just be, well, old-school.  Still, as much as I'd love to see XRP moon, the old-school part of my mentality just says that a "market cap" of +$3 trillion just seems ridiculous.

I've heard the same thing from a lot of my friends who work in finance.

The one thing I think everyone can agree on is that crypto is a completely new phenomenon. New phenomena typically bring with them very strange baggage. Some of that baggage is certainly Faustian whereas other parts are objectively positive. There is a litany of such examples from the dotcom bubble, ranging from the centralization of retail to the establishment of online communities, both 'normal' and perverse. Very strange, unimaginable consequences stemming from the establishment of a new arena of human activity.

Regarding major technological innovations in the last 100 years, when 9 out of 10 people go "ridiculous, unprecedented, can't happen," then that absurd thing seems to usually happen...

I've consistently maintained the wildcard position that in 5-10 years the universe of money will be unrecognizable. Maybe not on a consumer level, but on the back end? For sure. And I think the ballooning of this theoretical market cap limit will be one of the aforementioned strange consequences of this revolution - this phenomenon - we're on the cusp of experiencing.

Again, the pattern. When all the know-it-alls say "ludicrous, it doesn't work that way, it's never worked that way, can't happen, the world will be as the world has been," I tend to get very excited. 

Edited by DanB

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25 minutes ago, BarryMcHockenue said:

I'm soooooo long XRP, but I don't get how market cap is meaningless.  I get that I only started investing in crypto the past year, and the old-school side of me that's been investing in traditional stocks for 30 years may just be, well, old-school.  Still, as much as I'd love to see XRP moon, the old-school part of my mentality just says that a "market cap" of +$3 trillion just seems ridiculous.

Market cap is both very important and meaningless. It’s meaningless when trying to determine how much money has been injected into the coin or how much value can be extracted from it. HOWEVER, if is extremely important in the context of network value. This means you can’t send 3-4 trillion in value at once if the market cap doesn’t have the capability to absorb it. We absolutely need a huge market cap, lots of volume, and yes, money injected into the coin, also known as liquidity.

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44 minutes ago, BarryMcHockenue said:

I'm soooooo long XRP, but I don't get how market cap is meaningless.  I get that I only started investing in crypto the past year, and the old-school side of me that's been investing in traditional stocks for 30 years may just be, well, old-school.  Still, as much as I'd love to see XRP moon, the old-school part of my mentality just says that a "market cap" of +$3 trillion just seems ridiculous.

I asked jasil this question too but got no response, so I guess I'll ask you. What is your opinion on gold's market cap, or diamond's market cap? Both assets that provided virtually no real world use. Then there is XRP a digital asset that is providing a real world use that is solving a gigantic problem. Do you also think that gold's and diamond's market cap is ridiculous, or is it only because XRP isn't tangible that makes it ridiculous? 

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1 hour ago, BiffTannen said:

gold's market cap, or diamond's market cap? Both assets that provided virtually no real world use. 

Diamond has lots of industrial use. But industrial diamonds are cheap and manufacturable.

Gold has lots of real-world use (electronics, for one) and being an element, no way to manufacture more (unless you count atom smashers, not exactly cheap)

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12 minutes ago, dgoddard said:

Diamond has lots of industrial use. But industrial diamonds are cheap and manufacturable.

Gold has lots of real-world use (electronics, for one) and being an element, no way to manufacture more (unless you count atom smashers, not exactly cheap)

I realize that these assets have real world utitlies, but they are extremeely  limited in terms of their market cap. Gold used in electoronics and diamond used in industrial utlilties is literally a fraction it's supply. In no way justifiying it's market cap. 

 

Edited by BiffTannen

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1 hour ago, BiffTannen said:

I asked jasil this question too but got no response, so I guess I'll ask you. What is your opinion on gold's market cap, or diamond's market cap? Both assets that provided virtually no real world use. Then there is XRP a digital asset that is providing a real world use that is solving a gigantic problem. Do you also think that gold's and diamond's market cap is ridiculous, or is it only because XRP isn't tangible that makes it ridiculous? 

Such a hard question to answer.  Gold, or diamonds are only worth what we say they're worth.  For example tomorrow we could say that silver backed the US dollar instead of gold, and gold would basically become worthless.  I was born in 1972, became a programmer after spending time in The US Army, and witnessed the birth of The Internet, to which I see many similarities here with crypto.  Lost some money and made some money during the dot.com boom/bust era, but yes I see this digital asset (or at least the tech behind it) as something just as big.  True that it's not "tangible," but then how tangible was the Internet once upon a time?

Other pros and cons: Pro: All this talk of crypto funding illegal activity...You don't think gold and blood diamonds do the same thing???  Con: Give or take, approximately $7.5 trillion in gold has been mined in the history of mankind; how can it be reasonably justified that a "coin" that is or isn't tangible could possibly be worth half the gold ever mined?

Tricky questions indeed.  To a man stranded in The Sahara, a bottle of water would be more valuable than a kilo of gold.  I've rolled the dice on XRP and can only hope I was right.

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5 hours ago, DanB said:

Again, the pattern. When all the know-it-alls say "ludicrous, it doesn't work that way, it's never worked that way, can't happen, the world will be as the world has been," I tend to get very excited. 

This, this, all of this. 

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11 hours ago, BarryMcHockenue said:

Such a hard question to answer.  Gold, or diamonds are only worth what we say they're worth.  For example tomorrow we could say that silver backed the US dollar instead of gold, and gold would basically become worthless.  I was born in 1972, became a programmer after spending time in The US Army, and witnessed the birth of The Internet, to which I see many similarities here with crypto.  Lost some money and made some money during the dot.com boom/bust era, but yes I see this digital asset (or at least the tech behind it) as something just as big.  True that it's not "tangible," but then how tangible was the Internet once upon a time?

Other pros and cons: Pro: All this talk of crypto funding illegal activity...You don't think gold and blood diamonds do the same thing???  Con: Give or take, approximately $7.5 trillion in gold has been mined in the history of mankind; how can it be reasonably justified that a "coin" that is or isn't tangible could possibly be worth half the gold ever mined?

Tricky questions indeed.  To a man stranded in The Sahara, a bottle of water would be more valuable than a kilo of gold.  I've rolled the dice on XRP and can only hope I was right.

This is kind of the point I was trying to make. What something is worth is really an arbitrary number so I don’t know why XRP with a 3 trillion dollar market cap would be ludicrous. If the market determines that XRP is worth $300 per XRP because it solves a huge problem and a higher price XRP improves the functionality of the asset, in my mind that makes more sense than diamonds being valued at what it is when the industrial demand (pretty much it’s only real utility) pales to the diamond supply. 

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19 hours ago, BarryMcHockenue said:

I'm soooooo long XRP, but I don't get how market cap is meaningless.  I get that I only started investing in crypto the past year, and the old-school side of me that's been investing in traditional stocks for 30 years may just be, well, old-school.  Still, as much as I'd love to see XRP moon, the old-school part of my mentality just says that a "market cap" of +$3 trillion just seems ridiculous.

The easiest answer to this, is the  stupidity of famous  proverb “sky is the limit” or “only the sky is the limit” . Well there’s stratosphere , space, diffident galaxies and so on. Back in the days , people were believing that earth is flat or that it sits on the big turtle, and everyone who was talking about space or that it was round, was considered a witch or mentally ill. 

Well we know now that they weren’t wrong :)

You can’t put a limit on value of anything really.  

If tomorow new type of bug would swarm and eat all the crop nessary for growth of bread, bread would become rare , hence the price would rise . Well, until they conjure up a new poison that wold kill it .

So XRP,  none of us know how will it work , or will it ever work as planed , and even if we knew step by step, day by day, still nobody would know the limits of value of Ripple Cap.

You can’t  measure the essence of space , you could try, there’s a lot of computers trying to do so, and scientists trying to figure space out, but really none  of those brainiacs, know exactly what are they looking for and how big is the space really.  Crypto is not our mostly predictable stock market universe, crypto is a black hole. At least, that is how I see it.

Edited by FUD

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