2018 Crash

[Hodlezerper]

I wanted to reach out to @protechtor and @Malloy to see what your thoughts were regarding the traditional stock market starting to crash and how it's relating to our own crash. 

Are we expecting a potential dip below our previous support levels around .20? Does this feel like truly weak hands bailing?

I had the thought that real investment may begin with a little regulatory clarity. As in, tomorrow if there are decent rumors maybe we'll see some buying?

Or maybe this is really the culling of the herd and we won't see anything until real investors start making real investments based on regulatory oversight?

Definitely curious as to your thoughts.

Also, are there any smart trading strategies for riding a wave that's crashing down on everyone? Do you guys have any insight there?

[Malloy]

16 minutes ago, Hodlezerper said:

Are we expecting a potential dip below our previous support levels around .20

Very little chance IMO

16 minutes ago, Hodlezerper said:

Does this feel like truly weak hands bailing

Feels more like BTC running ruining the show and every other crypto are just slaves now...

 

17 minutes ago, Hodlezerper said:

I had the thought that real investment may begin with a little regulatory clarity

It will sure help...but when real adoption is clear (any crypto, any project) we'll see lots more investment and not just speculators...

18 minutes ago, Hodlezerper said:

are there any smart trading strategies for riding a wave that's crashing down on everyone

10-8 9-7 8-6 7-5 etc.

[protechtor]

1 hour ago, Hodlezerper said:

I wanted to reach out to @protechtor and @Malloy to see what your thoughts were regarding the traditional stock market starting to crash and how it's relating to our own crash. 

Are we expecting a potential dip below our previous support levels around .20? Does this feel like truly weak hands bailing?

I had the thought that real investment may begin with a little regulatory clarity. As in, tomorrow if there are decent rumors maybe we'll see some buying?

Or maybe this is really the culling of the herd and we won't see anything until real investors start making real investments based on regulatory oversight?

Definitely curious as to your thoughts.

Also, are there any smart trading strategies for riding a wave that's crashing down on everyone? Do you guys have any insight there?

The problem with the equity markets right now is a lack of liquidity. The markets are missing buyers on the dips. The lack of liquidity doesnt show up when the auto trading algos are buying up on low volatility, but show up with a vengeance when volatility hits. We have seen this liquidity problem in XRP as well. Look carefully at the start of each XRP drop since early January. Selloffs always start very low volume (ie. low liquidity), it drops very easily in low liquidity situations past technical support. Then, once it drops, volume picks up as holders/trader panic and hit a peak sell volume.... right at the wrong time, and then the buyers come in to give us a bounce. Rinse and repeat. Traders will trade the same trade over and over until it stops working. This is an indication of a shift away from risk assets to more conservative ones. Whether this continues or not is the Million $ question. Typically, Equity markets form tops ion a process, not an single event. As such, I expect a risk on approach to wax and wane if the equity markets are discovering a top.

Having said that...  lets review the facts about price in XRP:

• Every rally since the early Jan 2018 ATH has been quickly retraced. 
• Each relief rally started to fail on low volume/liquidity.
• We are now below the 200 day EMA (in XRP and BTC).
• Daily chart RSI and MACD are very week, with no divergences on the recent lows.

Based on the above, the bears are supremely in control for now and taking advantage of low liquidity to draw the long term holders into as much pressure to sell as possible. 

XRP is selling off in tandeM with BTC. BTC is in a wedge pattern. If it overshoots its lower wedge channel line, we could be seeing a thrust to near $4500 in short order. This could put XRP in the same thrust toward .40. If the lower wedge holds and finds buyers, then we will get a strong rally with volume up to the top of the wedge and burst through it.... but we have no signs of this starting yet. 

 

In XRP, the best potential bullish case  is on the 4 hr charts.

• There is a big MACD and RSI divergence where MACD and RSI indicators have not followed price down to new lows.* 
• Both XRP and BTC are at the bottom of respective trendlines. 
• Volume on recent rally's  is stronger than recent selloffs.

*Important to note though, that divergences do not always result in an immediate reversal (in this case, bullish one).  

Alot more going for the bears than the bulls right now. 

The key is to watch what happens during bounces. Follow through for more than the initial bounce is key. Lack of follow-through on bounces has let to less liquidity, and bears taking back control during low volume periods.

It is important to understand that XRP is still third in market cap... the liquidity and "risk-off" sentiment is market wide. It's only been a month since XRP had ATH's, and risk sentiment can shift back again quickly.

 

[protechtor]

2 hours ago, Hodlezerper said:

I wanted to reach out to @protechtor and @Malloy to see what your thoughts were regarding the traditional stock market starting to crash and how it's relating to our own crash. 

Are we expecting a potential dip below our previous support levels around .20? Does this feel like truly weak hands bailing?

I had the thought that real investment may begin with a little regulatory clarity. As in, tomorrow if there are decent rumors maybe we'll see some buying?

Or maybe this is really the culling of the herd and we won't see anything until real investors start making real investments based on regulatory oversight?

Definitely curious as to your thoughts.

Also, are there any smart trading strategies for riding a wave that's crashing down on everyone? Do you guys have any insight there?

As far as "news" impact on price. News releases aren't a reliable indicator by themselves imo. If sentiment is "risk-on" and good news stories hit, it could have an effect on short term prices, however, I think the entire community has experienced the profound disappointment on significant news releases on price when the market is "risk-off" (ie. down or sideways). So, if people are waiting for the right news story to save XRP, I think you are barking up the wrong tree. 

[Malloy]

22 hours ago, protechtor said:

the markets are missing buyers on the dips. The lack of liquidity doesnt show up when the auto trading algos are buying up on low volatility, but show up with a vengeance when volatility hits

I so much agree with this....

[Malloy]

@protechtor I have to publicly say something...I've rarely read about someone who understands and explains TA and charts like that...I've seen a lot of people drawing masterpiece that don't mean anything and trying to convince us of what they see... like an art dealer trying to sell a contemporary paint by numbers lol

So cheers to you...this is refreshing!

[protechtor]

8 minutes ago, Malloy said:

@protechtor I have to publicly say something...I've rarely read about someone who understands and explains TA and charts like that...I've seen a lot of people drawing masterpiece that don't mean anything and trying to convince us of what they see... like an art dealer trying to sell a contemporary paint by numbers lol

So cheers to you...this is refreshing!

Glad it is helpful. My purpose is to help others come to their own conclusions about likely possible price moves by explaining how I assess a market using indicators that work for me, and my understanding of sentiment and liquidity flows. There are no certainties in trading or investing, only possibilities.  Each TA with experience finds their own signature that works for them to help them limit the possibilities, and define their risk (ie. the point at which the market proves them wrong). My "signature" was carved out primarily in spot forex trading. It has worked well overall, but in some cases, it has needed adapting (ie. the volatility of crypto is much different than the spot forex markets for major pairs as example). 

[Hodlezerper]

This is what the Wave Surfers are all about, baby! Lol