Disclaimer

[Malloy]

Just to make sure what ever I say next is in context...

I have no crystal ball, special powers or inside the "big circle"...so...what ever I "say" and not "call" mostly comes from experience, a senses of the market, available data/numbers or ongoing news/rumours events...

Most of the time...a decision to buy or sell at this price is a good idea when you take that decision...but maybe not that good in 5 mins.

Imagine the morning of 9/11 when I logged in my account..opened all the tv/radio/web channel around 7am EST...and got ready for my day job (trading)...all the buy or sell ideas I had just took a very different (and sad) direction for the reasons you know...

To add to this...investing/trading is very emotional...there's a very good paper on loosing money is a lot more emotional than winning..people making great decision are not as excited in term of emotion levels than seeing their portofolio go down in term of depression level...that's important to understand and it's one of the biggest and hardest part of mastering your trading decisions.

Have to go for now...I'll update this a little later...cheers

Edited February 2, 2018 by Malloy

[panmores]

My current TA source is tradingview.com where I follow some chartists. 

Not expecting 100% secure science, it's about trends and gauging the markets.

Consensus seems that we could dive to around $0.4 in the course of the next weeks.

[Malloy]

I'd give 10-20% chance it'd go to 0.40 USD...since we play the odds usually in favor I'm more into the "golden" '8' consolidation before they break the '1's again

 

[panmores]

4 hours ago, Malloy said:

I'd give 10-20% chance it'd go to 0.40 USD...since we play the odds usually in favor I'm more into the "golden" '8' consolidation before they break the '1's again

 

Golden 8 consolidation?

[Malloy]

7 hours ago, panmores said:

Golden 8 consolidation?

If a group is getting ready to break the "1"s...1, 10, 100, 1000, 10000, etc...they usually consolidate in the "8's...0.80, 8.00, 80, 800, 8000, etc...

Just remember the "if"...cause he could also be a bear trap...but since we should always play the odds...IMO...better odds are in favor of what I just mentioned...

[Malloy]

Now for the disclaimer.

Being a good trader is accepting that you are not always right...in fact...you are often wrong...

The important things are:

- beat the bank...be right more often then wrong

- don't fall in love with your call...if all indicators are showing you it's going in an opposite direction...no matter how good you think you are...it's going in another direction so trade accordingly

- don't believe what anyone else is telling you...why would they do that...I'll give you a few reasons: they have already taken a position and want others to follow, they are setting up a trap and need people to buy and fall in the trap, they got caught in a bad trade and are trying to exit thus "passing you the toxic bag", they think they know things that others don't just because they made a few good trades and are starting to learn how to read charts, they need friends

- find your resistance to stress...if I can do some weird play with great reward potential but end up being wrong... I can live with it... that might not be the case for everyone

- find the amount of money you can loose and still be ok with it...cause any trade could be your last... just asked some people who were sure of their investment in Enron or any blue stocks bankrupt company pumped in every media for years...those "sure call" left investors with nothing...

- diversify and put some money in a safe place...the best crypto might not be the winner...and money is always good in hand if there's a flash crash or you need it for personal reasons

- find your trading style...minutes...hours...day...couple days...week...months...for your retirement...and adapt your strategy accordingly...

- and last...what you thing is good now..might not be in 5 mins...be flexible and ready to change side quick

Edited February 3, 2018 by Malloy

[Malloy]

 

I've said many times that I look at TA but I "use" the info accordingly...if everyone sees indicators that it's going up...isn't it time for big whales to sell?

Interesting to watch...I agree on many things he says...

"Markets are Rigged. Using Charts and Technical Analysis alone is a road to the Poorhouse"