Jump to content

Recommended Posts

4 hours ago, Kenpau said:

That's because no one really has any clue about what will happen within the next 12 months. It's purely speculative. I haven't seen one price prediction mentioned that has any solid backing behind the reasoning for that price!

Of course picking a price in 12 months time is speculation, what else can it be?

I’d be interested in knowing what an example of “solid backing” you are looking for when someone gives you their arguments for a price in 12 months. 

Serious question, not having a go at you. 

Edited by Chewiecoin
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Chewiecoin said:

Of course picking a price in 12 months time is speculation, what else can it be?

I’d be interested in knowing what an example of “solid backing” you are looking for when someone gives you their arguments for a price in 12 months. 

Serious question, not having a go at you. 

It’s possible that one or some of us have travelled back from the future 

just putting it out there, not enough discussion on tachyon quantum mechanics if you ask me........

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Chewiecoin said:

Of course picking a price in 12 months time is speculation, what else can it be?

I’d be interested in knowing what an example of “solid backing” you are looking for when someone gives you their arguments for a price in 12 months. 

Serious question, not having a go at you. 

That's exactly my point, except it's not really speculating. An example would be 'Microsoft have announced a possible partnership with Ripple starting in December 2018 subject to terms being agreed.' That has the ability to massively influence the worth of Ripple.

Saying 'I think the price at the end of the year will be $100, because Ripple grew 36000% last year, and it's so awesome' doesn't mean anything. Speculating would be looking at how a future event will influence price. Throwing numbers out there with no information to back up that prediction means absolutely nothing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Krypto said:

It’s possible that one or some of us have travelled back from the future 

just putting it out there, not enough discussion on tachyon quantum mechanics if you ask me........

Ahh thanks. Yes didn't think of this. 

For anyone that has used tachyon quantum mechanics to travel in time. What is the price of xrp on December 31st?

Oh and who wins the World Series?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, Kenpau said:

That's exactly my point, except it's not really speculating. An example would be 'Microsoft have announced a possible partnership with Ripple starting in December 2018 subject to terms being agreed.' That has the ability to massively influence the worth of Ripple.

Saying 'I think the price at the end of the year will be $100, because Ripple grew 36000% last year, and it's so awesome' doesn't mean anything. Speculating would be looking at how a future event will influence price. Throwing numbers out there with no information to back up that prediction means absolutely nothing.

Well I can only speak for myself but I have many posts in here showing my arguments:

"marathon of announcements"

SBI involvement

Caullix

Moneygram

Codius

Great team at Ripple

Proven cost efficiencies, speed, scalability

And yes the history of XRP and the history of other coins  

IMO this is some pretty "solid backing"

To each his own 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Chewiecoin said:

Ahh thanks. Yes didn't think of this. 

For anyone that has used tachyon quantum mechanics to travel in time. What is the price of xrp on December 31st?

Oh and who wins the World Series?

I just came back from visiting December 31st 2017. I can tell you with a remarkable degree of accuracy what the price was on that date and trends up to today. Unfortunately, I can't tell you anything about tomorrow, let alone Dec 31, 2018.

Sounds a bit like  crypto TA doesn't it - :diablo:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 1/26/2018 at 7:34 PM, JHoueye said:

To be conservative.. Not to put too much emphasis on marketcap but assuming the total market is 1.5 trillion and XRP has 30% market share that puts the price around $11.

(First post here. Hello all.)

This echoes a way I've been thinking about it. A bit longer...

Not a prediction for XRP at the end of 2018, but a reverse engineering based on overall cryptomarket growth and XRP market share. Yet another approach pulled from the back of my pants. Feel free to critique the hell out of it. It's just another angle for understanding the situation.

All numbers in $USD. 

I'm going to compare Jan 1 2017 to Jan 26 2018 (instead of Jan 1 2018) so it factors in the current correction.

Jan 1 2017 total crypto market cap: $17.7B
Jan 26 2018 total crypto market cap: $555.7B
= 31.4x rise in total crypto market cap from Jan 1 2017 to today. 

Assumption #1: Total crypto market cap rises 5x. Very conservative vs last year, despite likely increased public awareness and institutional money flowing in.

5x total rise from today to Jan 1 2019 total market cap: $2779B, or $2.8T

Now let's look at XRP's share of the market cap.

Jan 1 2017 XRP market cap: $0.24B USD, or 1.36% of total market cap
Jan 26 2018 XRP market cap: $46.4B USD, or 8.34% of total market cap

Assumption #2: XRP has 10% of total market cap on Jan 1 2019. Increased factors include increased public awareness, institutional money flowing in, and continuing Bitcoin decline.

So XRP market cap on Jan 1 2019 is $278M.

Assumption #3: XRP circulation is 48B, almost filling the 1B/month escrow schedule. 

That all adds up to a Jan 1 2019 XRP price of $5.80.

In sum,
- Assume total crypto market rise: 5x to $2.78T
- Assume XRP market share: 10%
- XRP is at $5.80

How about more aggressive overall? 
- Assume total crypto market rise: 10x to $5.55T
- Assume XRP market share: 12%
- XRP is at $13.89

Aggressive total market but declining XRP market share?
- Assume total crypto market rise: 10x to $5.55T
- Assume XRP market share: 7%
- XRP is at $8.10

Go way conservative?
- Assume total crypto market rise: 2x to $1.11T
- Assume XRP market share: 6%
- XRP is at $1.62

Even more aggressive?
- Assume total crypto market rise: 15x to $8.33T
- Assume XRP market share: 15%
- XRP is at $26.05

My personal conservative gut feeling says
- Assume total crypto market rise: 4x to $2.22T
- Assume XRP market share: 10%
- XRP is at $4.63

You get the idea.

I'd be happy to be underguessing it, of course.
 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, Chewiecoin said:

Well I can only speak for myself but I have many posts in here showing my arguments:

"marathon of announcements"

SBI involvement

Caullix

Moneygram

Codius

Great team at Ripple

Proven cost efficiencies, speed, scalability

And yes the history of XRP and the history of other coins  

IMO this is some pretty "solid backing"

To each his own 

There are definitely things in this list which can/have influence price. A marathon of past announcements should/would have already influenced price, unless it is an announcement on a future event which hasn't been confirmed.

Great team at Ripple is very subjective, I'm certain they are a great team, but what makes them better than all the other 'great teams' out there? If you visit the Stellar/EOS/STEEM forums everyone talks about the great team they have.

The project does have proven performance, history has been good up until very recently.

My worry would be, with all these potential indicators of 'solid backing', why is buyer confidence not currently with Ripple? In fairness it has shown improvement in the last 24 hours along with most other coins, however movement in Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum, Ethereum classic, NXT just to name a few is currently higher, means buyers are choosing those coins over Ripple at this time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Kenpau said:

 

My worry would be, with all these potential indicators of 'solid backing', why is buyer confidence not currently with Ripple? In fairness it has shown improvement in the last 24 hours along with most other coins, however movement in Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum, Ethereum classic, NXT just to name a few is currently higher, means buyers are choosing those coins over Ripple at this time.

Beginning 2017 one XRP was bought and sold for 0,006$, now it hovers around 1,30$, what do you mean with no buyer confidence? Your time-scale is too short.

Also, cryptomarkets are weird.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Benchmark said:

Beginning 2017 one XRP was bought and sold for 0,006$, now it hovers around 1,30$, what do you mean with no buyer confidence? Your time-scale is too short.

Also, cryptomarkets are weird.

But you can't look at long term past movement and predict long term future movement.

4 weeks ago Ripple was a solid second on the market cap table with around $110B (from memory), now it's 3rd, at about $47B. That's movement in one month. 

Edited by Kenpau
Addition
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't think we're giving these regulations as much credit as they're due. Governments are making their own cryptos, they're not going to adopt these anarchist coins (however you can bet your *** that central banks will certainly be adopting xRapid). You could probably count the amount of cryptos that will survive the purge on your 2 hands. You're talking a soon-to-be trillion dollar market consolidating into like 10 coins instead of thousands. These regulations alone could be what launches us into the triple digit numbers, and utilization of XRP will drive it even higher. I still stand by an eventual $2k XRP in the next few years. 

Edited by CaptainCorningware
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Kenpau said:

But you can't look at long term past movement and predict long term future movement.

4 weeks ago Ripple was a solid second on the market cap table with around $110B (from memory), now it's 3rd, at about $47B. That's movement in one month. 

True I can't predict movement, but in terms of general valuation the direction is obvious.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, Kenpau said:

There are definitely things in this list which can/have influence price. A marathon of past announcements should/would have already influenced price, unless it is an announcement on a future event which hasn't been confirmed.

Great team at Ripple is very subjective, I'm certain they are a great team, but what makes them better than all the other 'great teams' out there? If you visit the Stellar/EOS/STEEM forums everyone talks about the great team they have.

The project does have proven performance, history has been good up until very recently.

My worry would be, with all these potential indicators of 'solid backing', why is buyer confidence not currently with Ripple? In fairness it has shown improvement in the last 24 hours along with most other coins, however movement in Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum, Ethereum classic, NXT just to name a few is currently higher, means buyers are choosing those coins over Ripple at this time.

The crypto coin market is very fickle. A lot of investors looking for the next get rich quick coin

For long term substantial gains HODL XRP 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.