Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
vrippled

Where are we heading???

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Atomic1221 said:

As you can see from failed prediction above (no surprise to me) I struggle with being worth my salt for any time period over 2hrs, but at least something is working :) 

If you're referring to my post in the beginning of this thread, I generally have no idea what I'm talking about. As I stated, I am new to this, and was being purely optimistic. However I believe if it wasn't for the coincheck hack, and the futures thing then I "could" have been right :spinlol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
1 minute ago, DutchTom said:

as far as I know: monthly....

Pretty sure it’s happened twice this month hasn’t it? Including the one coming today? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Zerpinator said:

Pretty sure it’s happened twice this month hasn’t it? Including the one coming today? 

It's monthly for each exchange CME and CBOE. So all together twice a month. If more exchanges create future contracts on the bitcoin then we will have as many expiries per month as exchanges.

Edited by Boblemoche

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, ElChupaThingy78 said:

I read somewhere that the volume involved in the futures contracts would have to have enormous to affect the price. Even if the contract expires today it shouldnt affect the price so much.

Can anyone confirm this?

You are correct. 

First of all, there are weekly futures that expire every Friday. There are also SPX weeklies (Standard &  Poor's 500 weeklies) that expire every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. So, no, the expiration of options is not going to be the cause of a decent-sized dip. That's silly. Plus, the only futures expiring today are weekly futures.

Second of all, futures don't cause major price shifts, they anticipate them. Think about what futures are. They're bets on what the price is going to be in the future. If one is buying a stock expecting its price to rise, one can at the same time buy (at a much lower cost) an option to sell at today's price if the price happens to drop, protecting oneself against the contrary motion of the market. Whoever picks up the option is obligated to buy at that price later on, so you're guaranteed a buyer at that price. That buyer is betting that the price will rise at the same time that you're betting that it will fall. Bets on the future price thus balance; for every bet that the price is going up, there's another bet that it's going down, or else puts or calls are going begging. The net of all options bought and sold is always zero.

Claiming that futures affect the market is like saying that your bet on a horse at Pimlico affects the outcome of the race. It simply doesn't work that way. The only way that futures can affect the market is when there are enough requests for options in a given direction that the sheer volume of the options changes peoples' expectations of what the market is going to do. Expectations CAN affect the price of a stock or commodity in that way, but as you said, the volume of options would have to have been enormous for that to happen--and by the time the options expire, that effect has already been incorporated into the price of the stock. It's an expectation, remember? It's about the future, not the present.

I'm no expert, and anybody should feel free to tell me where I've got this wrong. But that's my understanding.

Edited by philwynk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for the explanation - i think many people suppose that whales have bought futures to sell at a high price and then manipulate the market downwards.like first bet against a horse and then give some poison to it

 

Edited by btcxrp2013

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

...then,after the bet is over,buying the horse from the owner who now doesn't believe anymore in it for a penny and own it. Poison gets digested,horse wins again

Edited by btcxrp2013
Bad änglish

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

After starting this thread (@inflection point of $1.30) and 50+ posts later with a lot of good insights, the up-to-minute picture seems to indicate that at least for the short term zerps have continued to maintain the downward trend. 

How long will this last ... who knows right :mellow:

But being confident that the long-term inevitable trajectory of zerps is much much much higher!, what kind of event or circumstances would likely be needed to trigger the eventual turnaround given the overall sentiment in the crypto space ??!

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

XRP does seem to be outperformed by a number of other coins at the moment. Of course the situation could change but there doesn't seem to be a real explanation why XRP is not an attractive option for buyers at the moment. Think of it what you will but the Weiss ratings were definitely taken seriously by a lot of people as the coins with the higher ratings did see growth after the announcement. For these reasons I did sell my entire lot of 5000 XRP today and put it into Stellar and Ethereum with a bit thrown into STEEM. This is not because I do not believe in the Ripple business model but because short term gains can almost certainly be found in alternative coins; being too loyal and blindly following any coin can ultimately cost you money.

Stellar has major players backing it such as IBM, the impending introduction of Wancoin linked to Ethereum has the potential to completely shake up cryptocurrency as a whole and STEEM has a very interesting project going on. Whereas Ripple does seem to be leading us blindly into the woods at the moment hoping to find a pot of gold. I hope Ripple does succeed, I'd be the first to buy back in if it does improve it's position but you can't argue with buyer confidence, a few weeks ago Ripple was a solid second in the market cap scale, now it is languishing in third with nothing apparent on the immediate horizon to improve this position.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Kenpau said:

XRP does seem to be outperformed by a number of other coins at the moment. Of course the situation could change but there doesn't seem to be a real explanation why XRP is not an attractive option for buyers at the moment. Think of it what you will but the Weiss ratings were definitely taken seriously by a lot of people as the coins with the higher ratings did see growth after the announcement. For these reasons I did sell my entire lot of 5000 XRP today and put it into Stellar and Ethereum with a bit thrown into STEEM. This is not because I do not believe in the Ripple business model but because short term gains can almost certainly be found in alternative coins; being too loyal and blindly following any coin can ultimately cost you money.

Stellar has major players backing it such as IBM, the impending introduction of Wancoin linked to Ethereum has the potential to completely shake up cryptocurrency as a whole and STEEM has a very interesting project going on. Whereas Ripple does seem to be leading us blindly into the woods at the moment hoping to find a pot of gold. I hope Ripple does succeed, I'd be the first to buy back in if it does improve it's position but you can't argue with buyer confidence, a few weeks ago Ripple was a solid second in the market cap scale, now it is languishing in third with nothing apparent on the immediate horizon to improve this position.

Yeah I understand your rationale. XRP has indeed lost it's momentum for the time being. All the best in your new positions but would define keep a close eye on any new and unexpected developments on the near horizon. It's been proven time and again how dramatically the sentiment can change at a moment's notice. Explosive rocket fuel is in no shortage when it comes to XRP !$$!!!$

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My own ******** analysis is that although the price is coming down and it was coming down in a neat descending channel all set to test and possibly go below the recent low of about 0.88, it's broken slightly out of the descending channel, and now the channels are getting shallower and shallower. I don't have the nous to link you to a chart.

 

Essentially it looks for now like it's heading gently and slowly down to a price of $1, from where a rebound ought to take place. I'm not sure whether that rebound will be particularly dramatic. It might be slow like this recent downturn. But my answer to the question how low will it go...looks like $1.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, Kenpau said:

XRP does seem to be outperformed by a number of other coins at the moment. Of course the situation could change but there doesn't seem to be a real explanation why XRP is not an attractive option for buyers at the moment. Think of it what you will but the Weiss ratings were definitely taken seriously by a lot of people as the coins with the higher ratings did see growth after the announcement. For these reasons I did sell my entire lot of 5000 XRP today and put it into Stellar and Ethereum with a bit thrown into STEEM. This is not because I do not believe in the Ripple business model but because short term gains can almost certainly be found in alternative coins; being too loyal and blindly following any coin can ultimately cost you money.

Stellar has major players backing it such as IBM, the impending introduction of Wancoin linked to Ethereum has the potential to completely shake up cryptocurrency as a whole and STEEM has a very interesting project going on. Whereas Ripple does seem to be leading us blindly into the woods at the moment hoping to find a pot of gold. I hope Ripple does succeed, I'd be the first to buy back in if it does improve it's position but you can't argue with buyer confidence, a few weeks ago Ripple was a solid second in the market cap scale, now it is languishing in third with nothing apparent on the immediate horizon to improve this position.

Well said. Beying a hodler nothing frightens me at the moment but you DO have a point:

It's actually unbelievable that XRP doesn't recover to at least 1.75 - 2.00  dollars given al the promising news. Last year we noticed an almost flatline in price for several months. but hey, the landscape has changed in a rather dramatic way the last 3 weeks. 

There are only two possible explanations: (feel free to disagree)

A: We are a stupid pack of Brad worshippers and we believe in XRP almost like a religion, hoping to be the no.1 player in time. (love those people:D)

B: The rest of the World as we know it is even more stupid than us, not seeing the great possibilities of XRP and Ripple company.

I have to admit: The B guys do a great job by the way, giving us a big headache each time we look at the charts. Let's wait what Brad 's got for us tonight at the conference.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, BluKoo said:

If you're referring to my post in the beginning of this thread, I generally have no idea what I'm talking about. As I stated, I am new to this, and was being purely optimistic. However I believe if it wasn't for the coincheck hack, and the futures thing then I "could" have been right :spinlol:

Haha no I was drunk last night and was referring to my own prediction but forgot an adjective or two

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...