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Seoulite

Why I think BTC decline and XRP/ETH ascendancy is very likely this year

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Hi guys, I'm new to this group. Just started posting yesterday. Holding from .24 (till 100? mayyyybe, but my life would be changed long before 100 so no guarantees ;))

Last night on the Zerpening thread I said "For the record I think we are going to see a "decoupling" moment for a little while where the XRP/BTC ratio moves up for us. That will mean either BTC is going down hard and we are stagnant or slightly rising, or we are pumping and bitcoin is stagnant. Ditto vs ETH. "

Now we are seeing a faster bounce for XRP than BTC this morning. I think this trend of faster bounces and steady holding while BTC falls will continue for XRP and ETH and therefore I think this year we will almost certainly see the end of BTC dominance.

Why do I think so? I'm currently learning wave trading now (similar to Elliot Wave) and this is what I see on the XRP/BTC chart.

There are two main possibilities I see. In both charts XRP breaks the ATH, but the only difference is when. I think even if we are going to see a longer correction as in Chart 2, we will still see another move up later this year. 

If you look at the ETH/BTC chart you will see a similar pattern where they have begun the second impulse, and it seems pretty clear that sooner or later they will at least test (and I think probably break) the ATH. 

This is exciting because last night during the dump, many people were complaining about being tied to BTC in this market. I think once either ETH or XRP passes BTC's market cap it will be big news and a huge blow to BTC's reign as King of this asylum. That will signal the beginning of the end, and (hopefully) a focus on tech and real usage rather than on bull runs and bitcoin. 

Of course this is all speculation and I could be completely wrong. But the charts, the fundamentals, and the general market sentiment all seem to pointing towards a dethroning of BTC. The King is dead, long live the King!

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I believe btc, eth, neo, xrp will be the big four this year, with btc retaining its relevance because of its well known status to the “new money”. Neo going side by side with eth, with more and more real world projects utilizing the (arguably) more advanced and easier to use neo over eth, and xrp being at the top because it is tied to real money and real businesses.

there will probably be a few 100x “great hits” coins like Tron that will make people extremely rich, which then may or may not fade away, but at the moment I am betting on these four.

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Bitmain release A3 which mines blake2b.  Only coin out there is siacoin.   Strange they are building out a miner for a product thats not full production yet.

Edited by jdimstrnate

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1 hour ago, susli said:

I believe btc, eth, neo, xrp will be the big four this year, with btc retaining its relevance because of its well known status to the “new money”. Neo going side by side with eth, with more and more real world projects utilizing the (arguably) more advanced and easier to use neo over eth, and xrp being at the top because it is tied to real money and real businesses.

there will probably be a few 100x “great hits” coins like Tron that will make people extremely rich, which then may or may not fade away, but at the moment I am betting on these four.

That's interesting. In general I agree with your list. I don't know much about the tech arguments, but many people hype Stellar as being a contender. Can I ask why it doesn't make your list?

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2 hours ago, manateehunter said:

I still think we're coupled to BTC, even though we see a faster rise we saw a much faster fall. Not to say that we're not asserting our dominance.

Agreed but I think it's possible that the bigger alts will begin to see smaller or equivalent falls to BTC over the course of the year. Lots of guys on BTC forums are banking on a rush back to BTC from the alts. I just don't see it, especially in the case of XRP and ETH. 

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42 minutes ago, Seoulite said:

That's interesting. In general I agree with your list. I don't know much about the tech arguments, but many people hype Stellar as being a contender. Can I ask why it doesn't make your list?

Stellar may be a success, especially if it can captivate some of the xrp’s success, but I don’t think it is in the same league as these four. After all, Neo is building an entire ecosystem with various projects backed by big companies and established investment firms, because they see their potential, the potential to be huge, solve real world problems, and generate a lot of wealth. There are a lot more projects that have potential and may net you decent returns this year, VeChain, Walton, Wabi, to name a few, but they are very unlikely to become dominating forces like these four, in my opinion.

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5 hours ago, Seoulite said:

Hi guys, I'm new to this group. Just started posting yesterday. Holding from .24 (till 100? mayyyybe, but my life would be changed long before 100 so no guarantees ;))

Last night on the Zerpening thread I said "For the record I think we are going to see a "decoupling" moment for a little while where the XRP/BTC ratio moves up for us. That will mean either BTC is going down hard and we are stagnant or slightly rising, or we are pumping and bitcoin is stagnant. Ditto vs ETH. "

Now we are seeing a faster bounce for XRP than BTC this morning. I think this trend of faster bounces and steady holding while BTC falls will continue for XRP and ETH and therefore I think this year we will almost certainly see the end of BTC dominance.

Why do I think so? I'm currently learning wave trading now (similar to Elliot Wave) and this is what I see on the XRP/BTC chart.

There are two main possibilities I see. In both charts XRP breaks the ATH, but the only difference is when. I think even if we are going to see a longer correction as in Chart 2, we will still see another move up later this year. 

If you look at the ETH/BTC chart you will see a similar pattern where they have begun the second impulse, and it seems pretty clear that sooner or later they will at least test (and I think probably break) the ATH. 

This is exciting because last night during the dump, many people were complaining about being tied to BTC in this market. I think once either ETH or XRP passes BTC's market cap it will be big news and a huge blow to BTC's reign as King of this asylum. That will signal the beginning of the end, and (hopefully) a focus on tech and real usage rather than on bull runs and bitcoin. 

Of course this is all speculation and I could be completely wrong. But the charts, the fundamentals, and the general market sentiment all seem to pointing towards a dethroning of BTC. The King is dead, long live the King!

1.png

2.png

I prefer the second option because it takes longer, but the upmove is stronger and fueled by a larger and longer lasting accumulation phase.

Good analysis.

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1 hour ago, Benchmark said:

@Seoulite any update on this analysis? Correct me if I’m wrong but I do see 3 correction waves since January. 

Well the correction has been longer than I hoped, but yes I think we are basically at the bottom. Expecting both XRPUSD and XRPBTC to break the ATH again fairly soon. It could turn out to be an even longer correction, but I don’t think we have much lower to go. So either we are sharply moving up again towards the top, or we will be in a longer sideways move within the range without breaking the bottom again. 

That anaylsis is what keeps me out of BTC, I think both ETH and XRP will climb much faster than BTC again. Needless to say, I’m looking to buy xrp again in this correction for upside, aside from my holding stack.

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2 hours ago, Seoulite said:

Well the correction has been longer than I hoped, but yes I think we are basically at the bottom. Expecting both XRPUSD and XRPBTC to break the ATH again fairly soon. It could turn out to be an even longer correction, but I don’t think we have much lower to go. So either we are sharply moving up again towards the top, or we will be in a longer sideways move within the range without breaking the bottom again. 

That anaylsis is what keeps me out of BTC, I think both ETH and XRP will climb much faster than BTC again. Needless to say, I’m looking to buy xrp again in this correction for upside, aside from my holding stack.

how low do you think we will correct to?

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Without doubt the biggest crypto by market volume and overall market share still is Bitcoin. All crypto is pegged to the main crypto (Bitcoin)

I see no reason on the horizon as to why Ethereum will be competitive enough to mount a take over.

XRP is a completely different ball-game to Bitcoin and other crypto. Just like ETH, XRP will also not be doing anything to surpass Bitcoin any time soon but we will watch this space because XRP is the only real challenger to catch Bitcoin and become the main pegged-to currency.

Edited by HazzaHat

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33 minutes ago, HazzaHat said:

see no reason on the horizon as to why Ethereum will be competitive enough to mount a take over.

Ethereum is already more useful than bitcoin, and faster/cheaper. 

The main problem for ETH is XRP is just as useful only cheaper and faster to a point where further gains are negligible. 

ETH and XRP are gonna slug it out for number 1 eventually. BTC is a dinosaur and governments have it in their crosshairs.

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48 minutes ago, HazzaHat said:

Without doubt the biggest crypto by market volume and overall market share still is Bitcoin. All crypto is pegged to the main crypto (Bitcoin)

Up until March 2017 you are right to say 'without a doubt'. Since then, the writing is clearly on the wall. It's only a matter of time before bitcoin loses its #1 position in both market cap and volume. 

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