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The whales left breadcrumbs, almost got checkmate.


Guest CaligulazBaby

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I've recently read excellent threads made by clearly intelligent posters both here and on reddit about whales manipulating the market, I gave it some thought and did some stuff I'd like to share because regulators aren't going to stop this epidemic any time soon.  What sucks is Ripple needs the whales for liquidity.

In my opinion their plan is simple.

1 - Over the course of a couple of years, create and control an artificial market where the % swings are ridiculous but in time accepted as the norm. Tick.

2 - Anchor the main coin (XRP) down so it's lost in a sea of 1,400 coins.  Do this by controlling the price of ALL coins, and spreading a decent amount of FUD about Ripple/XRP.  Winston Chruchill once said, "A lie will get around the world before the truth can get it's pants on".  FUD is more powerful than logic. Tick.

3 - When XRP adoption takes place amongst the banks and FIs, the price of XRP will go apocalyptic.  But this price rise will be in a market which for 5-10 years has been artificially created to seem normal so nobody bats an eyelid that XRP goes on a sustained daily green candle run over multiple months...it will just appear to be XRP over taking BTC in a "notoriously volatile" market.

4 - At some pre-determined point during bank/FI adoption in 2018 (before the apocalyptic run) the whales will switch almost every cent from the other 1,399 coins and into Ripple before the price explosion...then the fad that is cryptomania dies (for the most part).

 

Another poster here mentioned the whales spent last year pushing the price down to $0.20 until they ran out of idiots to rob and....$3.40.  He also started the $0.20 figure was where the HODLers couldn't be budged.  I gave this some thought and that would have left breadcrumbs.  I remember Elitefoo saying the sudden downward spikes in the market were whales trying to find the bottom.  I decided to chart those spikes from last year's sideways run and correlate them to the number of XRP wallets on the ledger.  The new influx of XRP investors will have contained a reasonably similar proportion of hodlers meaning those downward spikes last year should correlate to new account hodlers too  The answer was true but I noticed a few other things too.

xrp.thumb.png.511433a9bd46edba773003662bad3c05.png

I divided the number of accounts by the 4 decimal points after zero on each spike.  The lower the number, the higher the confidence and the more hodlers.

May 27th - 240.3 (Price went from 0.05-0.42 so confidence is high)

July 16th - 333.9 (Price back below 0.13, lotta hands shaken out by now)

Sept 15th - 320.6 (Similar number of resolute hodlers as July 16th)

Nov 2nd - 297.1 (Slightly more confidence in xrp, some decent announcements)

Dec 8th - 307.8 (Confidence low again with no price rise to accompany announcements)

Then I noticed something about the timing of the recent rally.  Before November last year the highest number of XRP accounts opened in a single day was 5,487 which was on May 17th ($0.42 peak) after that was May 16th with 5,066....until Nov 29th with 5,103.  This November peak in new accounts matching the previous peak  despite the overpowering FUD and price suppression meant the whales let the price go. (explains the timing)

5a5aa9bf2899e_xrpwalletcharts.thumb.png.1e9cec947d514375b975fcee0d6057d3.png

 

So what's going to happen if this is true?  How do the market manipulators get checkmate?

This current market manipulation is part of a bigger plan and I don't think the whales are necessarily making a bunch of money atm.  They might even be losing a small amount of money (doubtful) in a similar way you would sacrifice a better piece in chess for superior position.

I think whales own most of the crypto market and will artificially pump the thing until XRP's widespread adoption and they will move their entire portfolio over and I think this will happen in April/May this year.  It may take a while because they will spook the market if they try moving half a trillion dollars at once but yea I reckon it'll start around April assuming that's when banks start to switch to Ripplenet.  I also expect one final bull push from the whales from now until April so when they switch to XRP they can take as much money as possible.  Expect the marketcap to hit multiple trillions by the end of March.

Finally we can now combine all this information from June-Dec last year, David Schwartz $20-120 statements and the assumed whale's fund to get a reasonable price value for XRP by the end of 2018.  Hodlers in a confident market (May 27th) represented $0.0001 for every 240 accounts.  There are 5 billion banked and let's say 5% manage to get a Ripple account by the end of 2018 and I guess each has 2 accounts so that's 500 million XRP accounts.  Divided by 240 and multiplied by $0.0001 = $208.33.  The whales will represent 80% of the market (imo) by April which will probably be at least 3 trillion market cap so that a 2.4trilly/50 billies = $48.  David Schwartz has said if Ripple takes Swift (it will) then that's $20 per coin plus multiples for hodling for convenience, $120 if they take all global transactions (not sure about that for 2018) so let's be conservative and say Swift multiplied by 3 = $60.  So that's ~$316 per XRP by year's end based on these conservative numbers and the whales doing what whales do.

TL;DR  I took the time to write this piece so you can take the damn time to read it.

EDIT - I forgot to say they will probably artificially keep XRP low again between now and the switch so they get even more XRPs when they move the portfolio over.  Expect to move down on CMC considerably quicker than last time guys.

Edited by CaligulazBaby
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Your tldr is funny.

I dont't have much to base this on other than just general observation and a gut feeling - but April/May seems way too early for whales to make a truly massive/apocalyptic move on XRP. Like, even if Ripple double the number of banks on ripplenet to 200, that's still "crawling" territory. What makes you think this event it will happen so soon?

I totally agree that there's manipulation going on, and I wouldn't be surprised if XRP is being kept low and FUD campaigns are executed against it.

 

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7 minutes ago, DtotheK said:

Like, even if Ripple double the number of banks on ripplenet to 200, that's still "crawling" territory. What makes you think this event it will happen so soon?

Adoption won't go 100 - 200 - 400 - 1000 - 2000 - 4000 - 11,000.

It will go 100 - 1000 - 11,000. (and those 1,000 will be the 1k biggest banks so probably half the money)

SBI are financing the guinea pig corridors that are Japan/Korea atm because they have 11% stake and know success = $$$$$  They are merely showcasing that Ripplenet can deliver and by March that will be proven.  Moneygram and AMEX are all just additional showcases to the big boys as in, "We can handle anything you throw at us and here's the evidence."  Once satisfied, EVERY bank will want to be first in line.

Edited by CaligulazBaby
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1 minute ago, CaligulazBaby said:

Adoption won't go 100 - 200 - 400 - 1000 - 2000 - 4000 - 11,000.

It will go 100 - 1000 - 11,000.

Hmm, not to go too deep into tangents to your original post, but why do you think that?

I would agree that the network growth should and will accelerate. However, regarding announcements of that growth, as far as I recall, they were on 90 then we were updated it was 100.. Surely a steady stream of 100, 120, 150, 175, 200 etc. would be better for Ripple? Steady good news also hopefully resulting in a steady increase of value - which we know they want. As oppose to jumping from 100 to 1,000 which would create a massive frenzy.

So, could I conclude therefore that you expect them to hit 1,000 banks, or 11,000 banks by April/May? (i.e. something to justify whales making an apocalyptic / "end-game" move, for instance, Ripple hitting their end game).

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6 minutes ago, DtotheK said:

Hmm, not to go too deep into tangents to your original post, but why do you think that?

I would agree that the network growth should and will accelerate. However, regarding announcements of that growth, as far as I recall, they were on 90 then we were updated it was 100.. Surely a steady stream of 100, 120, 150, 175, 200 etc. would be better for Ripple? Steady good news also hopefully resulting in a steady increase of value - which we know they want. As oppose to jumping from 100 to 1,000 which would create a massive frenzy.

So, could I conclude therefore that you expect them to hit 1,000 banks, or 11,000 banks by April/May? (i.e. something to justify whales making an apocalyptic / "end-game" move, for instance, Ripple hitting their end game).

Depends how quickly they can move all 11k FIs onto Ripplenet and whether Ripple can handle the TPS.  As for the exponential growth...

Communication-Technology-Adoption-Peter-Leyden.thumb.png.49861cf56bc1627ef0579bd6adbae93b.png

How quickly do you think banks will adopt Ripplenet if it saves them 60% on overheads, trillions in nostro/vostro accounts?  I'm guessing the Ripplenet adoption line will be damn near vertical.  The only way it won't is if they struggle to handle TPS but so far the ledger has completed and closed every single transaction so...

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9 minutes ago, DtotheK said:

As oppose to jumping from 100 to 1,000 which would create a massive frenzy.

Not if some helpful whales donated some trillies to the market cap to kick start the whole thing.  Like I said, we need the whales for liquidity.

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1 minute ago, CaligulazBaby said:

How quickly do you think banks will adopt Ripplenet if it saves them 60% on overheads, trillions in nostro/vostro accounts?  I'm guessing the Ripplenet adoption line will be damn near vertical.

It would need to be basically vertical to get to 1k or 11k by March, Internet in the graph is 15 years and that's quite a steep angle. Banks are slow moving, the company I work for actually also supplies software to banks, just a different niche, but they can be going  through initial discussions/proof-of-concept/proof-of-value for many months, even years. Sometimes they are running on old OS's, old machines, old runtimes, and can't update code, and really don't want to disturb it in any way because basically it requires monstrous resources and knowledge of the application, which they don't have themselves. I agree with a lot of what you said, and find it genuinely interesting, but I just don't see adoption being that fast. Naturally, I'll be very very happy if I'm wrong!

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6 minutes ago, DtotheK said:

It would need to be basically vertical to get to 1k or 11k by March, Internet in the graph is 15 years and that's quite a steep angle. Banks are slow moving, the company I work for actually also supplies software to banks, just a different niche, but they can be going  through initial discussions/proof-of-concept/proof-of-value for many months, even years. Sometimes they are running on old OS's, old machines, old runtimes, and can't update code, and really don't want to disturb it in any way because basically it requires monstrous resources and knowledge of the application, which they don't have themselves. I agree with a lot of what you said, and find it genuinely interesting, but I just don't see adoption being that fast. Naturally, I'll be very very happy if I'm wrong!

Thank you for your insights. This is the time of year projects are provisioned and budgets are granted to execute on project work. Now, my thoughts are that if large banks adopt, and have done their DD - smaller banks will not have to perform the same level of DD especially in the same country.

Edited by Guest
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1 minute ago, DtotheK said:

Naturally, I'll be very very happy if I'm wrong!

Me too!  I don't work in the financial industry so I don't know much about the internals but I remember reading a thread by some mega international bank regulations wizard about 13 yearly checks they need to pass or something and he was saying how Ripple were doing all the right things in a regulatory sense.  As for the software...you've sent money between XRP accounts right?  Click, click done.  As slow moving as banks are I think they will make an exception this time because it's super easy and.......money.  As for PoC that's been going on for years, the Japan/Korea corridor is the final step, the use of XRP by banks for remmitance in different companies.  That's it done.  The only thing left now is to hash out deals over the business table and imo they will have most of them agreed by April.

Like I said I don't know anything about the internals but I know banks.  We all do.

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Just now, CaligulazBaby said:

Me too!  I don't work in the financial industry so I don't know much about the internals but I remember reading a thread by some mega international bank regulations wizard about 13 yearly checks they need to pass or something and he was saying how Ripple were doing all the right things in a regulatory sense.  As for the software...you've sent money between XRP accounts right?  Click, click done.  As slow moving as banks are I think they will make an exception this time because it's super easy and.......money.  As for PoC that's been going on for years, the Japan/Korea corridor is the final step, the use of XRP by banks for remmitance in different companies.  That's it done.  The only thing left now is to hash out deals over the business table and imo they will have most of them agreed by April.

Like I said I don't know anything about the internals but I know banks.  We all do.

Yeah, I have taken on board Ripple being compliant with necessary regulations - as is the company I work for, and it's similarly quite an urgent type of scenario. Basically, regardless of the product, I think many banks can be very slow - even if they wanted to be fast. Yes, the 60 or so japanese banks etc. are in final stages which is great, but like still need 900 more to hit 1k. Well, who knows, I do believe Ripple have a lot up their sleeve. My heart wants to believe but my mind wont let me..! Either way, I'm pro XRP, we are on the same team, good to hear your thoughts! I'mma stop hogging your thread now ..!

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Interesting. The market is definitely being manipulated big time by whales but largely by the Colombian and Mexican drug cartels ( and the North Koreans ) who basically started this thing. The Russians too of course. There is a huge shift in global power going on right now, "overthrowing government" power because whoever has the most money wins at the game that is life. Crypto is about to 100x  across the board to be honest. The world hasn't seen anything yet. Crypto is just getting warmed up. 

So yeah,  it's totally conceivable that the US ( who was late to the game thanks to tards like Jamie Dimon ( literally one of the dumbest humans on Earth, get physically ill just looking at this DBAG ) ) is backing Ripple as a way to Trojan horse their way into the crypto game and insure that the cartels and NK don't inherit the Earth.

Crypto is a legit threat to the balance of power. It's totally conceivable that Ripple is America's coin. As NEO is China's coin. The US government could be one of the whales you're talking about. Probably.

It's also worth noting that Peter Thiel is heavily invested in Ripple on the DL and Peter Thiel is one of President Trump's close advisors and friends. Thiel is the only person in Silicon Valley that backed Trump so he has megawatts of power these days. He's easily the most powerful guy in tech and SV. Trump literally loves Thiel and listens to everything he says.

Peter Thiel's Stanford protege, Joe Lonsdale ( founder of most powerful vc firm on Earth 8VC, co founder of Palantir,   founder of Addepar )  is also a big investor in Ripple ( this isn't public knowledge but I happen to know that it's true ).  

Palantir is basically run by the CIA now, Lonsdale and Theil are closely connected to the CIA and Trump and both have megawatts of Ripple so yeah, do the math, it's totally conceivable that they're both working with the US government and that  Ripple is America's coin.

Only problem with this theory is that I recently asked Lonsdale about crypto and he wasn't interested in it. He was more interested in talking about bio tech and curing cancer ( a cure is apparently coming soon by the way ). Ripple  seemed to be just another investment for him, not some "protect the US" quest that he's deeply involved with. At least he didn't sound like he cared much about crypto.

So yeah, Ripple could just be another one of the thousands of things that Thiel and Lonsdale invest in. A lot of people talk about Peter Thiel but the guy to watch is Joe Lonsdale. Lonsdale will be  the most powerful person on Earth within ten years. Easily: And I know that Lonsdale owns Ripple but I also know that he doesn't seem all that excited about it. So who knows if Ripple is connected to the US government?.I honestly don't know and would never get an honest answer even if I asked. 

Let me tell you this though, everything Thiel and Lonsdale invest in turns to GOLD. So there you have it. Ripple will indeed rise but the question is "will Ripple rise more than any of the other coins in this speculative bubble?".

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2 minutes ago, DtotheK said:

I'mma stop hogging your thread now ..!

No please hog as much as you wish.  I was just stating that a lot of things in Ripple's timeline and what the whales seem to be doing to the market are converging soon.  It may not happen as quickly as I state but I think it will.  If the whales let Ripple advance too quickly before they can switch over they will lose control of the market hence the switch being sooner rather than later.  I think we just differ in our opinions on how quickly the banks will adopt....rather than whether they will.  Either way by the end of 2018 we will be looking at a very different landscape.

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