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15 minutes ago, 21x2 said:

$2.64 ??

That seems to be the real price as far as I can tell.  I mean I've been going to binance and that sounds about right.  The inflated price from Korea doesn't seem that relevant to me, well, since I can't sell anything in Korea.

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Can you guys @teddybear @zenkert @Hodor please explain as to why you expect significant increase in XRP price due to launch of SBI and/or DMM? XRP/JPY has been available for a while on other Japanese exchanges hence those who wanted to buy had done so.

It's pretty much the same as with Coinbase - why would one sit and wait for CB to start trading XRP if it can be traded at dozens of other exchanges? What's the point of loosing X-XXXX fold return by just waiting? 

TL;DR - i guess neither SBI/DMM nor CB involvment will have significant impact of XRP price.

IMHO

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1 hour ago, WillGetThere said:

Can you guys @teddybear @zenkert @Hodor please explain as to why you expect significant increase in XRP price due to launch of SBI and/or DMM? XRP/JPY has been available for a while on other Japanese exchanges hence those who wanted to buy had done so.

It's pretty much the same as with Coinbase - why would one sit and wait for CB to start trading XRP if it can be traded at dozens of other exchanges? What's the point of loosing X-XXXX fold return by just waiting? 

TL;DR - i guess neither SBI/DMM nor CB involvment will have significant impact of XRP price.

IMHO

SBI is about institutional flows. While I have little hope for collective investment schemes under US 40 Act or UCITS regulation, I guess Asia will come up with something more flexible in terms of regulation to accommodate collective retail demand for managed crypto investments.

@fourthjohn, any comments?

Edited by teddybear

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7 hours ago, XRPeteSampras said:

This is what your gut tells you the end-of-year price will be?  Interesting.  Your gut could be right of course, but did you not tell us before that your conservative estimates have always come to rest far below XRP's actual performance? ;)

Such a fascinating and tricky thing to predict, and it really has been occupying my mind considerably lately.

Let's think: 

$30 would be about 1100% of its current price.  Its rise over the course of 2017 was around 36,000%, as you know better than almost anyone.  So, you are saying that it will rise a little over 1000% in the next 11.5 months--ultimately performing at about 1/36th of its 2017 effort.  This, despite the mountains of possibilities of incorporating big-time institutional money, a huge expansion of exchanges where it will become available (where, by the way, scores and scores of people already have wads of cash in their hands just waiting to be approved by the exchange so they can buy XRP), announcements that will make the already-insanely-prevalent Ripple media coverage look like nothing, word-of-mouth and FOMO which will continue to spread like wild-fire, and other as-of-yet unconsidered use cases and boons for XRP.

@Hodor, I consider myself one of your biggest fans, but my gut is telling me that your gut is once again trying to remain too conservative in its price prediction, perhaps with an eye toward not wanting to "jinx" anything.  :P

Almost everyone seems to assume that 2017 was the big BOOM in crypto, posting numbers that will never quite be seen again.  While I think this is very true of a great many cryptocurrencies, I think that many people are flat-out afraid to say that 2017 was not the true BOOM (fearful of sounding silly, maybe).  In my mind, there is a very strong possibility that for some--including and especially XRP--the 36,000% gain was not only not a one-off, but perhaps not even the apex in yearly gains.

Great blog as always, BTW! 

I hope you are right, but I think from another perspective Hodor's $30 gut feeling is not too conservative. He said he thinks the entire crypto market cap could hit $3-5 trillion this year. At $30, XRP would be $1.1 trillion by itself, therefore making it roughly 20-30% of the crypto market. As it sits today that number is closer to 13%. So we need not only a large expansion of the crypto market but also XRP's share of it. Both possible but something to consider.

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17 hours ago, getthezerpout said:

Yes, to be honest I hope it will hit $100 minimum, and I see a lot of sound evidence for it. But psychologically, it is kind of difficult to accept.
Kind of like if someone told you a human being is going to the moon, based on the same science that helped human beings fly intricate planes and satellites in to space.
It's scientifically sound, but it's hard for my human brain to fathom, if I had never seen it happen before.
People with $10K+ would be instant millionaires. Larsen would be a trillionaire.  People like Brad would be also be trillionaires if it went to $100+ USD. It would create thousands of millionaires. This is all possible. But it's really difficult to psychologically accept. 

The hope that I have is that capitalism prevails in the end, and that the value of XRP hits 100 and keeps going because of the greed of big players who want to drive the value further to become billionaires.  Billionaires will be the new millionaires. 

Perhaps we should look at this from another angle as well. What is the minimum price you expect for XRP in 2018 and then again in 2020?

A recent article said that Larsen and Garlinghouse each have about a 5-6% stake of outstanding shares. That’s in the neighborhood of 3.3 billion shares. At $100, they are not trillionaires, but they would still be the richest people on the planet. At around $300, they would become trillionaires. 

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3 minutes ago, MatinMontreal said:

A recent article said that Larsen and Garlinghouse each have about a 5-6% stake of outstanding shares. That’s in the neighborhood of 3.3 billion shares. At $100, they are not trillionaires, but they would still be the richest people on the planet. At around $300, they would become trillionaires. 

At $100, they are not trillionaires, but they would still be the richest people on the planet.

When i read this, i think that this could happen with a very very low probability

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Last year, I was skeptical that XRP would rise above $20.  As Bitcoin-type tokens drop given published issues with high cost, slow trx speed and lack of scalability, our XRP token is starting to resemble the star amongst all of the top 20 tokens with little or no utility or use case except for pure speculation.

If flippening occurs, XRP will garner the top #1 spot and would swallow a majority of most atomic sale proceeds of bit-coiner wannabes.  Simply put, XRP will have to trend higher based on limited supply but much higher demand.

Having said that, XRP will likely hit $30-50 during 2018 imo.  With some positive partnerships, increase of use cases, new exchanges, flood of new institutional money from creation of new crypto asset class and fomo sentiment, XRP may hit $50 or possibly higher than $100.

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Quote

If all networks were to become ILP-enabled, it ultimately wouldn’t matter if you held bitcoin, ether, litecoin or XRP. ILP would allow you to make payments to a merchant that only accepts bitcoin, for example, using XRP — all in just a matter of seconds.”

This was really interesting to me ^

I have a gut feeling that ILP will water down some of the specialized coins, and weed a bunch of weak ones out all together.  What's the saying? --  "You're special and unique, just like everyone else".  I hope to see more XRP pairs in the near term so they have a strong position to survive that.

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@teddybear I think that institutional investors would buy directly from Ripple (the Company). Do you agree?

Another thing is that I'd like to hear your take on why we are seeing so tiny volumes coming from China? I think Ripple (being US business) would never be adopted full scale in China (by Ali Pay for instance) due to political reasons. Does it make sence? 

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1 hour ago, WillGetThere said:

teddybear I think that institutional investors would buy directly from Ripple (the Company). Do you agree

Disagree. Not talking about institutional use-case-driven money but investors chasing returns. Big difference.

 

1 hour ago, WillGetThere said:

Another thing is that I'd like to hear your take on why we are seeing so tiny volumes coming from China? I think Ripple (being US business) would never be adopted full scale in China (by Ali Pay for instance) due to political reasons. Does it make sence? 

Honestly, no clue about China. But they are opportunistic I believe.

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